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Intrinsic Value of Rollins, Inc. (ROL)

Previous Close$53.06
Intrinsic Value$11.76
Upside potential  -78%
Previous Close
$53.06
Intrinsic Value
$11.76
Potential        
-78%

VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue, mln $Initial revenue growth rate, %Variable cost ratio, %Fixed operating exp., mln $Prod. assets / Revenue, %Working capital / Revenue, %Interest rate on debt, %Initial discount rate, %Shares outstanding, mlnAdjusted equity ratioAdjusted assets / RevenueCash & ST InvestmentsTotal debt

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2024 and quarterly data as of 2024-12-31.

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year2025202620272028202920302031203220332034203520362037203820392040204120422043204420452046204720482049

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue growth rate, %10.310.09.89.59.39.18.98.78.58.38.28.07.97.77.67.57.37.27.17.06.96.86.76.66.5
Revenue, $37384113451549465407589964246983757782098880959210346111451199112885138291482715881169921816519401207042207623522
Variable operating expenses, $m2856314234503779413145074908533557896272678573287905851591619844105661132812133129821387814822158181686617971
Fixed operating expenses, $m15516818219821523325327429832335038041244748552757162067373079285993210121098
Total operating expenses, $m30113310363239774346474051615609608765957135770883178962964610371111371194812806137121467015681167501787819069
Operating income, $m727803883969106111591263137414911615174618842029218323442514269228793075328034953719395441984454
EBITDA, $m84192810211120122713401461158917241868202021812350252927172915312333423571381240634327460348915192
Interest expense (income), $m336976839098107116126136147159172185199214229246263282301322343366390
Earnings before tax, $m69573480888797110611156125813651478159817251858199821462301246326332812299931943398361038324063
Tax expense, $m18819821823926228631234036939943246650253957962166571175981086291797510351097
Net income, $m5075365906477097758449189961079116712591356145915661679179819222053218923312480263627982966

BALANCE SHEET

Cash and short-term investments, $m0000000000000000000000000
Total assets, $m2729300232963611394743064689509755325993648370027553813687539406100951082411593124041326014163151141611617171
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m2729300232963611394743064689509755325993648370027553813687539406100951082411593124041326014163151141611617171
Average production assets, $m177519542145234925682802305133173599389942184556491552945696612065697043754380718628921598341048611173
Working capital, $m-131-144-158-173-189-206-225-244-265-287-311-336-362-390-420-451-484-519-556-595-636-679-725-773-823
Total debt, $m17241888206522532455267129013145340636833977428846194969533957306144658170437530804385859155975610389
Total liabilities, $m16371801197821662368258428143058331935963890420145324882525256436057649469567443795684989068966910302
Total equity, $m1091120113181444157917231876203922132397259328013021325435013762403843304637496253045665604564466868
Debt-to-equity ratio0.7441.4361.4321.4301.4271.4251.4241.4231.4221.4211.4201.4201.4191.4191.4191.4191.4191.4191.4191.4191.4201.4201.4201.4201.420
Adjusted equity ratio0.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.400

CASH FLOW

Net income, $m5075365906477097758449189961079116712591356145915661679179819222053218923312480263627982966
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m113125138151165181197215234253275297321346373401431463496531568608649693738
Funds from operations, $m6206617277988749551042113312301333144115561677180519392080222923852549272029003088328534903705
Change in working capital, $m-12-13-14-15-16-17-18-20-21-22-23-25-26-28-30-31-33-35-37-39-41-43-46-48-51
Cash from operations, $m6336747418138919731060115312511355146515811704183319692112226224202586275929413131333035383755
Maintenance CAPEX, $m-113-125-138-151-165-181-197-215-234-253-275-297-321-346-373-401-431-463-496-531-568-608-649-693-738
New CAPEX, $m-166-178-191-205-219-234-249-266-282-300-319-338-358-379-402-425-449-474-500-528-557-587-619-652-687
Total CAPEX, $m-279-303-329-356-384-415-447-480-516-554-593-635-679-726-774-826-880-937-996-1059-1125-1195-1268-1344-1425
Free cash flow, $m3543704134585065586136727358018719461024110711941286138214831589170018161936206221942330
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m0000000000000000000000000
Retained Cash Flow, $m-143-110-117-126-135-144-153-163-174-185-196-208-220-233-247-261-276-291-308-325-342-361-380-401-422
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $m382
Cash available for distribution, $m5932612953323724144605095616176767388048749481025110611921281137514731575168217931908
Discount rate, %5.005.255.515.796.086.386.707.047.397.768.148.558.989.439.9010.3910.9111.4612.0312.6313.2713.9314.6315.3616.13
PV of cash for distribution, $m56423625126527728629229529529228527626324823021119016914812710889735845
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100