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Intrinsic Value of Spire Inc. (SR)

Previous Close$78.20
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$78.20

VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue, mln $Initial revenue growth rate, %Variable cost ratio, %Fixed operating exp., mln $Prod. assets / Revenue, %Working capital / Revenue, %Interest rate on debt, %Initial discount rate, %Shares outstanding, mlnAdjusted equity ratioAdjusted assets / RevenueCash & ST InvestmentsTotal debt

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2024 and quarterly data as of 2024-09-30.

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year2025202620272028202920302031203220332034203520362037203820392040204120422043204420452046204720482049

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue growth rate, %-2.7-2.3-1.9-1.6-1.3-1.0-0.7-0.4-0.10.10.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.81.92.12.22.42.52.62.8
Revenue, $2523246524172378234823252310230122992302231123252345236923992433247225162565261926782741281028842963
Variable operating expenses, $m2213216121192085205920392026201820162019202720392056207821042134216822072250229723482404246425292599
Fixed operating expenses, $m-185-201-218-236-256-278-302-327-355-385-418-454-492-534-579-629-682-740-803-871-945-1026-1113-1207-1310
Total operating expenses, $m2028196019011849180317611724169116611634160915851564154415251505148614671447142614031378135113221289
Operating income, $m49550451552954556458661063866870274078182587492898610501119119312751363145915621675
EBITDA, $m7737747797888008168358588859159499881030107711291185124713151388146915561650175318641984
Interest expense (income), $m188263256250246242239237236236236237239242245248252257262268275282290298307
Earnings before tax, $m30824125927829932234737340243346650254158463068073479385692510001081116912641368
Tax expense, $m83657075818794101108117126136146158170184198214231250270292316341369
Net income, $m224176189203219235253272293316340367395426460496536579625675730789853923999

BALANCE SHEET

Cash and short-term investments, $m0000000000000000000000000
Total assets, $m953793169135898888748789873186988689870187358789886389569067919793469512969799001012110362106221090211202
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m953793169135898888748789873186988689870187358789886389569067919793469512969799001012110362106221090211202
Average production assets, $m7794761374657345725271827135710871007111713871837243731974107516763777737924809082718468868089099154
Working capital, $m-631-616-604-594-587-581-577-575-575-575-578-581-586-592-600-608-618-629-641-655-669-685-703-721-741
Total debt, $m6578640162566139604859805933590758995910593759806039611362036306642565586706686870467238744676707910
Total liabilities, $m7630745373087191709970316985695869516961698870317091716572547358747676107757792080978290849887218961
Total equity, $m1907186318271798177517581746174017381740174717581773179118131839186919021939198020242072212421802240
Debt-to-equity ratio2.4613.5313.5043.4803.4593.4413.4243.4113.3993.3903.3833.3773.3743.3723.3713.3723.3743.3773.3823.3873.3933.4003.4073.4153.424
Adjusted equity ratio0.2000.2000.2000.2000.2000.2000.2000.2000.2000.2000.2000.2000.2000.2000.2000.2000.2000.2000.2000.2000.2000.2000.2000.2000.200

CASH FLOW

Net income, $m224176189203219235253272293316340367395426460496536579625675730789853923999
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m278271264259255252249248247247247248249251254257261265270275281287294301309
Funds from operations, $m50344645346247448750252054056258761464567871475479784489595110111076114712241308
Change in working capital, $m1815121086421-1-2-4-5-6-7-9-10-11-12-13-15-16-17-18-20
Cash from operations, $m48543244145346648149951853956358961865068472176280785590796410261092116512431328
Maintenance CAPEX, $m-278-271-264-259-255-252-249-248-247-247-247-248-249-251-254-257-261-265-270-275-281-287-294-301-309
New CAPEX, $m000000000-10-28-44-60-76-91-106-121-136-151-166-181-197-212-229-245
Total CAPEX, $m-278-271-264-259-255-252-249-248-247-257-275-292-310-327-345-363-382-401-421-441-462-484-506-530-554
Free cash flow, $m207161177194211230249270293306315326340357376399425454486523563608658713773
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m0000000000000000000000000
Retained Cash Flow, $m38444362923171272-3-7-11-15-19-22-26-30-33-37-41-44-48-52-56-60
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $m942
Cash available for distribution, $m1456196206217229243258275294304308315325338354373395420449482519560606657713
Discount rate, %5.505.786.066.376.697.027.377.748.138.538.969.419.8810.3710.8911.4312.0112.6113.2413.9014.5915.3216.0916.8917.74
PV of cash for distribution, $m138017617317016616215715214613412010796857566575042363024201612
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100100