Fiscal year | | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 | 2037 | 2038 | 2039 | 2040 | 2041 | 2042 | 2043 | 2044 | 2045 | 2046 | 2047 | 2048 | 2049 |
INCOME STATEMENT |
Revenue growth rate, % | | -2.7 | -2.3 | -1.9 | -1.6 | -1.3 | -1.0 | -0.7 | -0.4 | -0.1 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.8 |
Revenue, $ | | 2523 | 2465 | 2417 | 2378 | 2348 | 2325 | 2310 | 2301 | 2299 | 2302 | 2311 | 2325 | 2345 | 2369 | 2399 | 2433 | 2472 | 2516 | 2565 | 2619 | 2678 | 2741 | 2810 | 2884 | 2963 |
Variable operating expenses, $m | | 2213 | 2161 | 2119 | 2085 | 2059 | 2039 | 2026 | 2018 | 2016 | 2019 | 2027 | 2039 | 2056 | 2078 | 2104 | 2134 | 2168 | 2207 | 2250 | 2297 | 2348 | 2404 | 2464 | 2529 | 2599 |
Fixed operating expenses, $m | | -185 | -201 | -218 | -236 | -256 | -278 | -302 | -327 | -355 | -385 | -418 | -454 | -492 | -534 | -579 | -629 | -682 | -740 | -803 | -871 | -945 | -1026 | -1113 | -1207 | -1310 |
Total operating expenses, $m | | 2028 | 1960 | 1901 | 1849 | 1803 | 1761 | 1724 | 1691 | 1661 | 1634 | 1609 | 1585 | 1564 | 1544 | 1525 | 1505 | 1486 | 1467 | 1447 | 1426 | 1403 | 1378 | 1351 | 1322 | 1289 |
Operating income, $m | | 495 | 504 | 515 | 529 | 545 | 564 | 586 | 610 | 638 | 668 | 702 | 740 | 781 | 825 | 874 | 928 | 986 | 1050 | 1119 | 1193 | 1275 | 1363 | 1459 | 1562 | 1675 |
EBITDA, $m | | 773 | 774 | 779 | 788 | 800 | 816 | 835 | 858 | 885 | 915 | 949 | 988 | 1030 | 1077 | 1129 | 1185 | 1247 | 1315 | 1388 | 1469 | 1556 | 1650 | 1753 | 1864 | 1984 |
Interest expense (income), $m | | 188 | 263 | 256 | 250 | 246 | 242 | 239 | 237 | 236 | 236 | 236 | 237 | 239 | 242 | 245 | 248 | 252 | 257 | 262 | 268 | 275 | 282 | 290 | 298 | 307 |
Earnings before tax, $m | | 308 | 241 | 259 | 278 | 299 | 322 | 347 | 373 | 402 | 433 | 466 | 502 | 541 | 584 | 630 | 680 | 734 | 793 | 856 | 925 | 1000 | 1081 | 1169 | 1264 | 1368 |
Tax expense, $m | | 83 | 65 | 70 | 75 | 81 | 87 | 94 | 101 | 108 | 117 | 126 | 136 | 146 | 158 | 170 | 184 | 198 | 214 | 231 | 250 | 270 | 292 | 316 | 341 | 369 |
Net income, $m | | 224 | 176 | 189 | 203 | 219 | 235 | 253 | 272 | 293 | 316 | 340 | 367 | 395 | 426 | 460 | 496 | 536 | 579 | 625 | 675 | 730 | 789 | 853 | 923 | 999 |
BALANCE SHEET |
Cash and short-term investments, $m | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Total assets, $m | | 9537 | 9316 | 9135 | 8988 | 8874 | 8789 | 8731 | 8698 | 8689 | 8701 | 8735 | 8789 | 8863 | 8956 | 9067 | 9197 | 9346 | 9512 | 9697 | 9900 | 10121 | 10362 | 10622 | 10902 | 11202 |
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m | | 9537 | 9316 | 9135 | 8988 | 8874 | 8789 | 8731 | 8698 | 8689 | 8701 | 8735 | 8789 | 8863 | 8956 | 9067 | 9197 | 9346 | 9512 | 9697 | 9900 | 10121 | 10362 | 10622 | 10902 | 11202 |
Average production assets, $m | | 7794 | 7613 | 7465 | 7345 | 7252 | 7182 | 7135 | 7108 | 7100 | 7111 | 7138 | 7183 | 7243 | 7319 | 7410 | 7516 | 7637 | 7773 | 7924 | 8090 | 8271 | 8468 | 8680 | 8909 | 9154 |
Working capital, $m | | -631 | -616 | -604 | -594 | -587 | -581 | -577 | -575 | -575 | -575 | -578 | -581 | -586 | -592 | -600 | -608 | -618 | -629 | -641 | -655 | -669 | -685 | -703 | -721 | -741 |
Total debt, $m | | 6578 | 6401 | 6256 | 6139 | 6048 | 5980 | 5933 | 5907 | 5899 | 5910 | 5937 | 5980 | 6039 | 6113 | 6203 | 6306 | 6425 | 6558 | 6706 | 6868 | 7046 | 7238 | 7446 | 7670 | 7910 |
Total liabilities, $m | | 7630 | 7453 | 7308 | 7191 | 7099 | 7031 | 6985 | 6958 | 6951 | 6961 | 6988 | 7031 | 7091 | 7165 | 7254 | 7358 | 7476 | 7610 | 7757 | 7920 | 8097 | 8290 | 8498 | 8721 | 8961 |
Total equity, $m | | 1907 | 1863 | 1827 | 1798 | 1775 | 1758 | 1746 | 1740 | 1738 | 1740 | 1747 | 1758 | 1773 | 1791 | 1813 | 1839 | 1869 | 1902 | 1939 | 1980 | 2024 | 2072 | 2124 | 2180 | 2240 |
Debt-to-equity ratio | | 2.461 | 3.531 | 3.504 | 3.480 | 3.459 | 3.441 | 3.424 | 3.411 | 3.399 | 3.390 | 3.383 | 3.377 | 3.374 | 3.372 | 3.371 | 3.372 | 3.374 | 3.377 | 3.382 | 3.387 | 3.393 | 3.400 | 3.407 | 3.415 | 3.424 |
Adjusted equity ratio | | 0.200 | 0.200 | 0.200 | 0.200 | 0.200 | 0.200 | 0.200 | 0.200 | 0.200 | 0.200 | 0.200 | 0.200 | 0.200 | 0.200 | 0.200 | 0.200 | 0.200 | 0.200 | 0.200 | 0.200 | 0.200 | 0.200 | 0.200 | 0.200 | 0.200 |
CASH FLOW |
Net income, $m | | 224 | 176 | 189 | 203 | 219 | 235 | 253 | 272 | 293 | 316 | 340 | 367 | 395 | 426 | 460 | 496 | 536 | 579 | 625 | 675 | 730 | 789 | 853 | 923 | 999 |
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m | | 278 | 271 | 264 | 259 | 255 | 252 | 249 | 248 | 247 | 247 | 247 | 248 | 249 | 251 | 254 | 257 | 261 | 265 | 270 | 275 | 281 | 287 | 294 | 301 | 309 |
Funds from operations, $m | | 503 | 446 | 453 | 462 | 474 | 487 | 502 | 520 | 540 | 562 | 587 | 614 | 645 | 678 | 714 | 754 | 797 | 844 | 895 | 951 | 1011 | 1076 | 1147 | 1224 | 1308 |
Change in working capital, $m | | 18 | 15 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | -1 | -2 | -4 | -5 | -6 | -7 | -9 | -10 | -11 | -12 | -13 | -15 | -16 | -17 | -18 | -20 |
Cash from operations, $m | | 485 | 432 | 441 | 453 | 466 | 481 | 499 | 518 | 539 | 563 | 589 | 618 | 650 | 684 | 721 | 762 | 807 | 855 | 907 | 964 | 1026 | 1092 | 1165 | 1243 | 1328 |
Maintenance CAPEX, $m | | -278 | -271 | -264 | -259 | -255 | -252 | -249 | -248 | -247 | -247 | -247 | -248 | -249 | -251 | -254 | -257 | -261 | -265 | -270 | -275 | -281 | -287 | -294 | -301 | -309 |
New CAPEX, $m | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -10 | -28 | -44 | -60 | -76 | -91 | -106 | -121 | -136 | -151 | -166 | -181 | -197 | -212 | -229 | -245 |
Total CAPEX, $m | | -278 | -271 | -264 | -259 | -255 | -252 | -249 | -248 | -247 | -257 | -275 | -292 | -310 | -327 | -345 | -363 | -382 | -401 | -421 | -441 | -462 | -484 | -506 | -530 | -554 |
Free cash flow, $m | | 207 | 161 | 177 | 194 | 211 | 230 | 249 | 270 | 293 | 306 | 315 | 326 | 340 | 357 | 376 | 399 | 425 | 454 | 486 | 523 | 563 | 608 | 658 | 713 | 773 |
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Retained Cash Flow, $m | | 384 | 44 | 36 | 29 | 23 | 17 | 12 | 7 | 2 | -3 | -7 | -11 | -15 | -19 | -22 | -26 | -30 | -33 | -37 | -41 | -44 | -48 | -52 | -56 | -60 |
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $m | | 942 |
Cash available for distribution, $m | | 1456 | 196 | 206 | 217 | 229 | 243 | 258 | 275 | 294 | 304 | 308 | 315 | 325 | 338 | 354 | 373 | 395 | 420 | 449 | 482 | 519 | 560 | 606 | 657 | 713 |
Discount rate, % | | 5.50 | 5.78 | 6.06 | 6.37 | 6.69 | 7.02 | 7.37 | 7.74 | 8.13 | 8.53 | 8.96 | 9.41 | 9.88 | 10.37 | 10.89 | 11.43 | 12.01 | 12.61 | 13.24 | 13.90 | 14.59 | 15.32 | 16.09 | 16.89 | 17.74 |
PV of cash for distribution, $m | | 1380 | 176 | 173 | 170 | 166 | 162 | 157 | 152 | 146 | 134 | 120 | 107 | 96 | 85 | 75 | 66 | 57 | 50 | 42 | 36 | 30 | 24 | 20 | 16 | 12 |
Current shareholders' claim on cash, % | | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |