investorscraft@gmail.com

Intrinsic Value of Constellation Brands, Inc. (STZ)

Previous Close$172.32
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$172.32

VALUATION INPUT DATA

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2025 and quarterly data as of .

Data is not available at this time.

Stock Valuation Context

Business Model And Market Position

Constellation Brands, Inc. operates as a leading international producer and marketer of beer, wine, and spirits, with a strong focus on premium and high-margin brands. The company’s beer segment, anchored by its ownership of Modelo and Corona in the U.S., drives the majority of revenue, benefiting from robust consumer demand and pricing power. Its wine and spirits portfolio includes well-known labels such as Kim Crawford and Svedka, catering to diverse consumer preferences. Constellation’s strategic emphasis on premiumization and brand differentiation positions it favorably in competitive markets, particularly in the U.S., where it holds a dominant share in the high-growth imported beer category. The company’s vertically integrated supply chain and distribution network enhance operational efficiency, while targeted marketing investments sustain brand loyalty. Despite facing regulatory challenges and shifting consumer trends, Constellation’s diversified portfolio and focus on innovation provide resilience against market volatility.

Revenue Profitability And Efficiency

Constellation Brands reported revenue of $10.21 billion for FY2025, reflecting steady demand for its premium beer portfolio. However, net income was negative at -$81.4 million, primarily due to one-time charges and higher input costs. Operating cash flow remained robust at $3.15 billion, underscoring strong cash generation capabilities. Capital expenditures totaled $1.21 billion, indicating continued investment in capacity expansion and supply chain optimization.

Earnings Power And Capital Efficiency

The company’s diluted EPS of -$0.45 for FY2025 was impacted by non-recurring expenses, masking underlying earnings strength. Operating cash flow conversion highlights efficient working capital management, though elevated debt levels may weigh on future capital allocation flexibility. Constellation’s focus on high-margin beer sales supports sustained profitability, but wine and spirits segment performance remains a drag on overall returns.

Balance Sheet And Financial Health

Constellation’s balance sheet shows $68.1 million in cash and equivalents against total debt of $12.11 billion, indicating leveraged positioning. The debt load reflects historical acquisitions and investments in growth, but manageable liquidity and strong cash flow provide coverage. Shareholders’ equity remains pressured by recent losses, warranting close monitoring of leverage ratios and refinancing risks in a rising rate environment.

Growth Trends And Dividend Policy

The company’s growth is driven by premium beer demand, with wine and spirits facing slower traction. Constellation maintains a shareholder-friendly dividend policy, distributing $4.03 per share annually, supported by stable cash flows. Strategic acquisitions and organic brand expansion are key priorities, though near-term earnings volatility may constrain dividend growth until profitability normalizes.

Valuation And Market Expectations

Market expectations for Constellation reflect optimism around its beer segment’s pricing power and market share gains, offset by concerns over wine/spirits underperformance and debt levels. Valuation multiples likely incorporate premiumization tailwinds, but execution risks and macroeconomic pressures could temper upside potential in the near term.

Strategic Advantages And Outlook

Constellation’s strategic advantages include its dominant imported beer portfolio, scalable distribution, and brand equity. The outlook hinges on premiumization trends, cost management, and debt reduction. While near-term headwinds persist, long-term growth prospects remain intact, supported by category leadership and innovation in high-demand segments.

Sources

10-K filing, company investor relations

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year2026202720282029203020312032203320342035203620372038203920402041204220432044204520462047204820492050

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue growth rate, %NaN
Revenue, $NaN
Variable operating expenses, $mNaN
Fixed operating expenses, $mNaN
Total operating expenses, $mNaN
Operating income, $mNaN
EBITDA, $mNaN
Interest expense (income), $mNaN
Earnings before tax, $mNaN
Tax expense, $mNaN
Net income, $mNaN

BALANCE SHEET

Cash and short-term investments, $mNaN
Total assets, $mNaN
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $mNaN
Average production assets, $mNaN
Working capital, $mNaN
Total debt, $mNaN
Total liabilities, $mNaN
Total equity, $mNaN
Debt-to-equity ratioNaN
Adjusted equity ratioNaN

CASH FLOW

Net income, $mNaN
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $mNaN
Funds from operations, $mNaN
Change in working capital, $mNaN
Cash from operations, $mNaN
Maintenance CAPEX, $mNaN
New CAPEX, $mNaN
Total CAPEX, $mNaN
Free cash flow, $mNaN
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $mNaN
Retained Cash Flow, $mNaN
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $mNaN
Cash available for distribution, $mNaN
Discount rate, %NaN
PV of cash for distribution, $mNaN
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %NaN
HomeMenuAccount