Fiscal year | | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 | 2037 | 2038 | 2039 | 2040 | 2041 | 2042 | 2043 | 2044 | 2045 | 2046 | 2047 | 2048 | 2049 |
INCOME STATEMENT |
Revenue growth rate, % | | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 4.5 |
Revenue, $ | | 81446 | 84203 | 87121 | 90207 | 93469 | 96913 | 100547 | 104381 | 108423 | 112682 | 117169 | 121895 | 126870 | 132106 | 137616 | 143413 | 149511 | 155923 | 162667 | 169757 | 177210 | 185044 | 193279 | 201933 | 211027 |
Variable operating expenses, $m | | 73301 | 75783 | 78409 | 81187 | 84122 | 87221 | 90492 | 93943 | 97580 | 101414 | 105452 | 109705 | 114183 | 118895 | 123854 | 129072 | 134560 | 140331 | 146400 | 152781 | 159489 | 166540 | 173951 | 181740 | 189924 |
Fixed operating expenses, $m | | 5080 | 5512 | 5981 | 6489 | 7041 | 7639 | 8289 | 8993 | 9757 | 10587 | 11487 | 12463 | 13522 | 14672 | 15919 | 17272 | 18740 | 20333 | 22061 | 23937 | 25971 | 28179 | 30574 | 33173 | 35992 |
Total operating expenses, $m | | 78381 | 81295 | 84390 | 87676 | 91163 | 94860 | 98781 | 102936 | 107337 | 112001 | 116939 | 122168 | 127705 | 133567 | 139773 | 146344 | 153300 | 160664 | 168461 | 176718 | 185460 | 194719 | 204525 | 214913 | 225916 |
Operating income, $m | | 3064 | 2908 | 2731 | 2532 | 2306 | 2052 | 1766 | 1445 | 1085 | 681 | 230 | -274 | -835 | -1461 | -2157 | -2931 | -3789 | -4741 | -5795 | -6961 | -8250 | -9674 | -11246 | -12980 | -14890 |
EBITDA, $m | | 4060 | 3937 | 3795 | 3632 | 3446 | 3233 | 2991 | 2716 | 2404 | 2051 | 1654 | 1207 | 705 | 142 | -488 | -1192 | -1977 | -2851 | -3824 | -4905 | -6105 | -7435 | -8908 | -10537 | -12338 |
Interest expense (income), $m | | 518 | 399 | 431 | 465 | 500 | 538 | 578 | 619 | 664 | 710 | 759 | 811 | 865 | 923 | 983 | 1046 | 1113 | 1183 | 1257 | 1335 | 1417 | 1503 | 1593 | 1688 | 1787 |
Earnings before tax, $m | | 2546 | 2509 | 2300 | 2067 | 1806 | 1514 | 1189 | 826 | 421 | -29 | -529 | -1085 | -1701 | -2384 | -3140 | -3977 | -4902 | -5924 | -7052 | -8296 | -9667 | -11177 | -12839 | -14667 | -16677 |
Tax expense, $m | | 688 | 677 | 621 | 558 | 488 | 409 | 321 | 223 | 114 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Net income, $m | | 1859 | 1831 | 1679 | 1509 | 1318 | 1105 | 868 | 603 | 307 | -29 | -529 | -1085 | -1701 | -2384 | -3140 | -3977 | -4902 | -5924 | -7052 | -8296 | -9667 | -11177 | -12839 | -14667 | -16677 |
BALANCE SHEET |
Cash and short-term investments, $m | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Total assets, $m | | 26063 | 26945 | 27879 | 28866 | 29910 | 31012 | 32175 | 33402 | 34695 | 36058 | 37494 | 39006 | 40598 | 42274 | 44037 | 45892 | 47843 | 49895 | 52053 | 54322 | 56707 | 59214 | 61849 | 64619 | 67529 |
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m | | 26063 | 26945 | 27879 | 28866 | 29910 | 31012 | 32175 | 33402 | 34695 | 36058 | 37494 | 39006 | 40598 | 42274 | 44037 | 45892 | 47843 | 49895 | 52053 | 54322 | 56707 | 59214 | 61849 | 64619 | 67529 |
Average production assets, $m | | 11321 | 11704 | 12110 | 12539 | 12992 | 13471 | 13976 | 14509 | 15071 | 15663 | 16287 | 16943 | 17635 | 18363 | 19129 | 19934 | 20782 | 21673 | 22611 | 23596 | 24632 | 25721 | 26866 | 28069 | 29333 |
Working capital, $m | | 2280 | 2358 | 2439 | 2526 | 2617 | 2714 | 2815 | 2923 | 3036 | 3155 | 3281 | 3413 | 3552 | 3699 | 3853 | 4016 | 4186 | 4366 | 4555 | 4753 | 4962 | 5181 | 5412 | 5654 | 5909 |
Total debt, $m | | 9984 | 10778 | 11619 | 12508 | 13447 | 14439 | 15486 | 16590 | 17754 | 18980 | 20273 | 21634 | 23066 | 24575 | 26161 | 27831 | 29587 | 31434 | 33376 | 35418 | 37564 | 39821 | 42192 | 44685 | 47304 |
Total liabilities, $m | | 23456 | 24250 | 25091 | 25980 | 26919 | 27911 | 28958 | 30062 | 31226 | 32452 | 33745 | 35106 | 36538 | 38047 | 39633 | 41303 | 43059 | 44906 | 46848 | 48890 | 51036 | 53293 | 55664 | 58157 | 60776 |
Total equity, $m | | 2606 | 2694 | 2788 | 2887 | 2991 | 3101 | 3218 | 3340 | 3470 | 3606 | 3749 | 3901 | 4060 | 4227 | 4404 | 4589 | 4784 | 4990 | 5205 | 5432 | 5671 | 5921 | 6185 | 6462 | 6753 |
Debt-to-equity ratio | | 4.967 | 3.705 | 3.866 | 4.025 | 4.182 | 4.336 | 4.488 | 4.636 | 4.782 | 4.924 | 5.062 | 5.197 | 5.329 | 5.456 | 5.580 | 5.701 | 5.817 | 5.930 | 6.039 | 6.144 | 6.246 | 6.344 | 6.438 | 6.529 | 6.617 |
Adjusted equity ratio | | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 | 0.100 |
CASH FLOW |
Net income, $m | | 1859 | 1831 | 1679 | 1509 | 1318 | 1105 | 868 | 603 | 307 | -29 | -529 | -1085 | -1701 | -2384 | -3140 | -3977 | -4902 | -5924 | -7052 | -8296 | -9667 | -11177 | -12839 | -14667 | -16677 |
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m | | 996 | 1029 | 1064 | 1101 | 1140 | 1181 | 1225 | 1271 | 1319 | 1370 | 1424 | 1481 | 1540 | 1603 | 1669 | 1739 | 1812 | 1889 | 1970 | 2056 | 2145 | 2239 | 2338 | 2442 | 2552 |
Funds from operations, $m | | 2855 | 2861 | 2743 | 2610 | 2458 | 2286 | 2092 | 1873 | 1626 | 1341 | 895 | 396 | -161 | -781 | -1471 | -2238 | -3090 | -4035 | -5082 | -6241 | -7522 | -8938 | -10501 | -12225 | -14125 |
Change in working capital, $m | | 73 | 77 | 82 | 86 | 91 | 96 | 102 | 107 | 113 | 119 | 126 | 132 | 139 | 147 | 154 | 162 | 171 | 180 | 189 | 199 | 209 | 219 | 231 | 242 | 255 |
Cash from operations, $m | | 2782 | 2783 | 2661 | 2523 | 2367 | 2190 | 1991 | 1766 | 1513 | 1222 | 769 | 264 | -300 | -927 | -1625 | -2401 | -3261 | -4215 | -5271 | -6439 | -7731 | -9157 | -10731 | -12467 | -14380 |
Maintenance CAPEX, $m | | -996 | -1029 | -1064 | -1101 | -1140 | -1181 | -1225 | -1271 | -1319 | -1370 | -1424 | -1481 | -1540 | -1603 | -1669 | -1739 | -1812 | -1889 | -1970 | -2056 | -2145 | -2239 | -2338 | -2442 | -2552 |
New CAPEX, $m | | -362 | -383 | -406 | -429 | -453 | -479 | -505 | -533 | -562 | -592 | -624 | -657 | -692 | -728 | -766 | -806 | -848 | -891 | -937 | -985 | -1036 | -1089 | -1145 | -1203 | -1264 |
Total CAPEX, $m | | -1358 | -1412 | -1470 | -1530 | -1593 | -1660 | -1730 | -1803 | -1881 | -1962 | -2048 | -2137 | -2232 | -2331 | -2435 | -2545 | -2660 | -2781 | -2908 | -3041 | -3181 | -3328 | -3483 | -3645 | -3816 |
Free cash flow, $m | | 1424 | 1371 | 1192 | 993 | 774 | 530 | 261 | -38 | -367 | -740 | -1278 | -1874 | -2532 | -3258 | -4061 | -4945 | -5921 | -6995 | -8178 | -9480 | -10912 | -12485 | -14214 | -16112 | -18196 |
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 160 | 497 | 876 | 1422 | 2025 | 2691 | 3426 | 4237 | 5131 | 6116 | 7200 | 8394 | 9707 | 11150 | 12736 | 14478 | 16389 | 18487 |
Retained Cash Flow, $m | | 934 | -88 | -93 | -99 | -104 | -110 | -116 | -123 | -129 | -136 | -144 | -151 | -159 | -168 | -176 | -186 | -195 | -205 | -216 | -227 | -239 | -251 | -264 | -277 | -291 |
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $m | | -1680 |
Cash available for distribution, $m | | 491 | 1283 | 1098 | 895 | 669 | 420 | 144 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Discount rate, % | | 6.40 | 6.72 | 7.06 | 7.41 | 7.78 | 8.17 | 8.58 | 9.01 | 9.46 | 9.93 | 10.42 | 10.95 | 11.49 | 12.07 | 12.67 | 13.31 | 13.97 | 14.67 | 15.40 | 16.17 | 16.98 | 17.83 | 18.72 | 19.66 | 20.64 |
PV of cash for distribution, $m | | 462 | 1126 | 895 | 672 | 460 | 262 | 81 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Current shareholders' claim on cash, % | | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 98 | 96 | 92 | 87 | 82 | 75 | 68 | 61 | 54 | 47 | 40 | 34 | 28 | 23 | 19 | 15 | 11 |