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Intrinsic Value of Sysco Corporation (SYY)

Previous Close$74.10
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$74.10

VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue, mln $Initial revenue growth rate, %Variable cost ratio, %Fixed operating exp., mln $Prod. assets / Revenue, %Working capital / Revenue, %Interest rate on debt, %Initial discount rate, %Shares outstanding, mlnAdjusted equity ratioAdjusted assets / RevenueCash & ST InvestmentsTotal debt

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2024 and quarterly data as of 2024-06-29.

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year2025202620272028202920302031203220332034203520362037203820392040204120422043204420452046204720482049

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue growth rate, %3.33.43.53.53.63.73.83.83.93.94.04.04.14.14.24.24.34.34.34.44.44.44.44.54.5
Revenue, $814468420387121902079346996913100547104381108423112682117169121895126870132106137616143413149511155923162667169757177210185044193279201933211027
Variable operating expenses, $m733017578378409811878412287221904929394397580101414105452109705114183118895123854129072134560140331146400152781159489166540173951181740189924
Fixed operating expenses, $m50805512598164897041763982898993975710587114871246313522146721591917272187402033322061239372597128179305743317335992
Total operating expenses, $m78381812958439087676911639486098781102936107337112001116939122168127705133567139773146344153300160664168461176718185460194719204525214913225916
Operating income, $m306429082731253223062052176614451085681230-274-835-1461-2157-2931-3789-4741-5795-6961-8250-9674-11246-12980-14890
EBITDA, $m406039373795363234463233299127162404205116541207705142-488-1192-1977-2851-3824-4905-6105-7435-8908-10537-12338
Interest expense (income), $m5183994314655005385786196647107598118659239831046111311831257133514171503159316881787
Earnings before tax, $m2546250923002067180615141189826421-29-529-1085-1701-2384-3140-3977-4902-5924-7052-8296-9667-11177-12839-14667-16677
Tax expense, $m6886776215584884093212231140000000000000000
Net income, $m185918311679150913181105868603307-29-529-1085-1701-2384-3140-3977-4902-5924-7052-8296-9667-11177-12839-14667-16677

BALANCE SHEET

Cash and short-term investments, $m0000000000000000000000000
Total assets, $m26063269452787928866299103101232175334023469536058374943900640598422744403745892478434989552053543225670759214618496461967529
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m26063269452787928866299103101232175334023469536058374943900640598422744403745892478434989552053543225670759214618496461967529
Average production assets, $m11321117041211012539129921347113976145091507115663162871694317635183631912919934207822167322611235962463225721268662806929333
Working capital, $m2280235824392526261727142815292330363155328134133552369938534016418643664555475349625181541256545909
Total debt, $m9984107781161912508134471443915486165901775418980202732163423066245752616127831295873143433376354183756439821421924468547304
Total liabilities, $m23456242502509125980269192791128958300623122632452337453510636538380473963341303430594490646848488905103653293556645815760776
Total equity, $m2606269427882887299131013218334034703606374939014060422744044589478449905205543256715921618564626753
Debt-to-equity ratio4.9673.7053.8664.0254.1824.3364.4884.6364.7824.9245.0625.1975.3295.4565.5805.7015.8175.9306.0396.1446.2466.3446.4386.5296.617
Adjusted equity ratio0.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.1000.100

CASH FLOW

Net income, $m185918311679150913181105868603307-29-529-1085-1701-2384-3140-3977-4902-5924-7052-8296-9667-11177-12839-14667-16677
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m996102910641101114011811225127113191370142414811540160316691739181218891970205621452239233824422552
Funds from operations, $m2855286127432610245822862092187316261341895396-161-781-1471-2238-3090-4035-5082-6241-7522-8938-10501-12225-14125
Change in working capital, $m737782869196102107113119126132139147154162171180189199209219231242255
Cash from operations, $m2782278326612523236721901991176615131222769264-300-927-1625-2401-3261-4215-5271-6439-7731-9157-10731-12467-14380
Maintenance CAPEX, $m-996-1029-1064-1101-1140-1181-1225-1271-1319-1370-1424-1481-1540-1603-1669-1739-1812-1889-1970-2056-2145-2239-2338-2442-2552
New CAPEX, $m-362-383-406-429-453-479-505-533-562-592-624-657-692-728-766-806-848-891-937-985-1036-1089-1145-1203-1264
Total CAPEX, $m-1358-1412-1470-1530-1593-1660-1730-1803-1881-1962-2048-2137-2232-2331-2435-2545-2660-2781-2908-3041-3181-3328-3483-3645-3816
Free cash flow, $m142413711192993774530261-38-367-740-1278-1874-2532-3258-4061-4945-5921-6995-8178-9480-10912-12485-14214-16112-18196
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m000000016049787614222025269134264237513161167200839497071115012736144781638918487
Retained Cash Flow, $m934-88-93-99-104-110-116-123-129-136-144-151-159-168-176-186-195-205-216-227-239-251-264-277-291
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $m-1680
Cash available for distribution, $m49112831098895669420144000000000000000000
Discount rate, %6.406.727.067.417.788.178.589.019.469.9310.4210.9511.4912.0712.6713.3113.9714.6715.4016.1716.9817.8318.7219.6620.64
PV of cash for distribution, $m462112689567246026281000000000000000000
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %1001001001001001001001009896928782756861544740342823191511