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Intrinsic Value of Tourmaline Oil Corp. (TOU.TO)

Previous Close$62.62
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$62.62

VALUATION INPUT DATA

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2024 and quarterly data as of .

Data is not available at this time.

Stock Valuation Context

Business Model And Market Position

Tourmaline Oil Corp. is a leading Canadian energy company specializing in the exploration, development, and production of oil and natural gas, primarily within the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin. The company operates across key resource-rich regions, including the Alberta Deep Basin, Northeast British Columbia Montney, and the Peace River High Triassic oil complex. Its vertically integrated model allows for efficient resource extraction, processing, and marketing, positioning it as a low-cost producer in the North American energy sector. Tourmaline’s diversified asset base and operational scale provide resilience against commodity price volatility, while its focus on sustainable practices aligns with evolving regulatory and environmental expectations. The company’s strategic acreage and technical expertise in unconventional plays reinforce its competitive edge in a capital-intensive industry. As one of Canada’s largest natural gas producers, Tourmaline benefits from established infrastructure and long-term contracts, ensuring stable cash flows and market access. Its disciplined capital allocation and focus on free cash flow generation further distinguish it within the mid-cap E&P segment.

Revenue Profitability And Efficiency

Tourmaline reported revenue of CAD 5.65 billion for the period, with net income of CAD 1.26 billion, reflecting robust profitability despite sector-wide price fluctuations. The company’s diluted EPS of CAD 3.51 underscores its earnings strength, supported by efficient operations and cost management. Operating cash flow of CAD 2.73 billion highlights Tourmaline’s ability to convert production into liquidity, while capital expenditures of CAD 2.26 billion indicate sustained investment in growth and maintenance.

Earnings Power And Capital Efficiency

The company’s earnings power is evident in its consistent free cash flow generation, driven by high-margin natural gas production and operational scale. Tourmaline’s capital efficiency is demonstrated by its ability to fund growth while maintaining financial flexibility, with a disciplined approach to reinvestment and shareholder returns. Its low-cost structure and hedging strategies further mitigate earnings volatility.

Balance Sheet And Financial Health

Tourmaline maintains a solid balance sheet, with total debt of CAD 1.30 billion, reflecting prudent leverage management. The absence of reported cash and equivalents suggests a focus on deploying liquidity into productive assets or debt reduction. The company’s financial health is supported by strong cash flow coverage of obligations and a conservative leverage profile relative to peers.

Growth Trends And Dividend Policy

Tourmaline has demonstrated growth through organic development and strategic acquisitions, leveraging its extensive resource base. The company’s dividend of CAD 1.20 per share signals a commitment to returning capital to shareholders, complemented by potential share buybacks. Its growth trajectory remains tied to commodity prices but is underpinned by a low-decline production portfolio and operational efficiency.

Valuation And Market Expectations

With a market capitalization of CAD 23.98 billion and a beta of 0.54, Tourmaline is valued as a relatively stable player in the energy sector. The market appears to price in its resilient cash flow generation and growth potential, though sentiment remains influenced by broader energy market dynamics and regulatory risks.

Strategic Advantages And Outlook

Tourmaline’s strategic advantages include its low-cost production, diversified asset base, and strong operational execution. The outlook remains favorable, supported by global energy demand and the company’s ability to adapt to market conditions. Risks include commodity price volatility and regulatory changes, but Tourmaline’s disciplined approach positions it well for long-term value creation.

Sources

Company filings, market data

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

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