investorscraft@gmail.com

Intrinsic Value of Topaz Energy Corp. (TPZ.TO)

Previous Close$25.59
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$25.59

VALUATION INPUT DATA

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2024 and quarterly data as of .

Data is not available at this time.

Stock Valuation Context

Business Model And Market Position

Topaz Energy Corp. operates as a specialized royalty and energy infrastructure company within Canada's oil and gas midstream sector. Its core revenue model is anchored in two segments: Royalty Production, where it earns royalties from approximately 5.3 million gross acres of developed and undeveloped lands, and Infrastructure, which includes natural gas processing and water management services. The company’s royalty interests provide a low-risk, capital-light income stream tied to production volumes, while its infrastructure segment offers fee-based cash flows with long-term contracts. Topaz differentiates itself through its diversified asset base and strategic partnerships with leading energy producers, positioning it as a stable player in a cyclical industry. Its focus on sustainable infrastructure and royalty acquisitions aligns with broader energy transition trends, enhancing its appeal to investors seeking exposure to energy with reduced operational risk. The company’s asset concentration in Western Canada provides regional advantages but also exposes it to localized regulatory and environmental factors.

Revenue Profitability And Efficiency

Topaz reported revenue of CAD 299.8 million for the period, with net income of CAD 46.4 million, reflecting a net margin of approximately 15.5%. The company generated CAD 276.3 million in operating cash flow, underscoring its ability to convert revenue into cash efficiently. Capital expenditures were modest at CAD 7.3 million, highlighting its capital-light model and focus on high-return investments.

Earnings Power And Capital Efficiency

Topaz’s diluted EPS of CAD 0.32 demonstrates its earnings capacity despite its asset-light structure. The company’s high operating cash flow relative to net income suggests strong non-cash adjustments, likely due to royalty accounting. Its capital efficiency is evident in its low capex requirements, allowing for consistent free cash flow generation to support dividends and growth initiatives.

Balance Sheet And Financial Health

Topaz maintains a leveraged balance sheet with total debt of CAD 540.4 million, though its debt levels are manageable given its stable cash flows. Cash reserves are minimal at CAD 147,000, reflecting a strategy of deploying liquidity into dividends or growth. The company’s beta of 0.475 indicates lower volatility compared to the broader energy sector, aligning with its royalty-based model.

Growth Trends And Dividend Policy

Topaz has demonstrated a commitment to shareholder returns, with a dividend per share of CAD 1.31. Its growth is tied to royalty acquisitions and infrastructure expansions, which are likely to be incremental rather than transformative. The company’s ability to sustain dividends hinges on stable energy prices and production volumes from its royalty partners.

Valuation And Market Expectations

With a market cap of CAD 3.86 billion, Topaz trades at a premium reflective of its stable cash flows and low-risk profile. Investors likely value its predictable royalty income and infrastructure cash flows, though its growth prospects may be limited by its reliance on third-party production. The stock’s low beta suggests it is priced as a defensive energy play.

Strategic Advantages And Outlook

Topaz’s strategic advantages lie in its diversified royalty portfolio and infrastructure assets, which provide resilience against commodity price swings. The company is well-positioned to benefit from sustained energy demand in Western Canada, though regulatory and environmental risks remain key watchpoints. Its outlook is stable, with growth likely driven by accretive acquisitions and operational efficiencies.

Sources

Company filings, market data

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year2025202620272028202920302031203220332034203520362037203820392040204120422043204420452046204720482049

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue growth rate, %NaN
Revenue, $NaN
Variable operating expenses, $mNaN
Fixed operating expenses, $mNaN
Total operating expenses, $mNaN
Operating income, $mNaN
EBITDA, $mNaN
Interest expense (income), $mNaN
Earnings before tax, $mNaN
Tax expense, $mNaN
Net income, $mNaN

BALANCE SHEET

Cash and short-term investments, $mNaN
Total assets, $mNaN
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $mNaN
Average production assets, $mNaN
Working capital, $mNaN
Total debt, $mNaN
Total liabilities, $mNaN
Total equity, $mNaN
Debt-to-equity ratioNaN
Adjusted equity ratioNaN

CASH FLOW

Net income, $mNaN
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $mNaN
Funds from operations, $mNaN
Change in working capital, $mNaN
Cash from operations, $mNaN
Maintenance CAPEX, $mNaN
New CAPEX, $mNaN
Total CAPEX, $mNaN
Free cash flow, $mNaN
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $mNaN
Retained Cash Flow, $mNaN
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $mNaN
Cash available for distribution, $mNaN
Discount rate, %NaN
PV of cash for distribution, $mNaN
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %NaN
HomeMenuAccount