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Intrinsic Value of Vermilion Energy Inc. (VET.TO)

Previous Close$10.77
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$10.77

VALUATION INPUT DATA

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2024 and quarterly data as of .

Data is not available at this time.

Stock Valuation Context

Business Model And Market Position

Vermilion Energy Inc. is an international oil and gas exploration and production company with a diversified portfolio across North America, Europe, and Australia. The company generates revenue primarily through the extraction and sale of petroleum and natural gas, leveraging its extensive land holdings and producing wells. Its operations span conventional and offshore assets, including the Corrib natural gas field in Ireland and the Wandoo offshore oil field in Australia. Vermilion maintains a strong market position in Europe, particularly in France and the Netherlands, where it holds significant working interests in developed and undeveloped acreage. The company’s diversified geographic footprint mitigates regional risks while capitalizing on varying energy market dynamics. With a focus on operational efficiency and strategic acquisitions, Vermilion balances production growth with cost discipline. Its integrated approach, from exploration to production, allows it to capture value across the energy supply chain. The company competes in the mid-tier segment of the oil and gas sector, differentiating itself through international diversification and a balanced mix of oil and gas assets.

Revenue Profitability And Efficiency

Vermilion reported revenue of CAD 2.07 billion for the period, though net income stood at a loss of CAD 46.7 million, reflecting challenges in cost management or commodity price volatility. Operating cash flow of CAD 967.8 million indicates robust underlying cash generation, while capital expenditures of CAD 623.0 million suggest ongoing investment in production and development. The company’s ability to sustain positive operating cash flow despite a net loss highlights its operational resilience.

Earnings Power And Capital Efficiency

The diluted EPS of -CAD 0.30 underscores earnings pressure, likely tied to fluctuating energy prices or elevated operating costs. However, the strong operating cash flow relative to capital expenditures suggests efficient reinvestment in high-return projects. Vermilion’s capital allocation strategy appears focused on maintaining production levels while optimizing free cash flow for debt reduction and shareholder returns.

Balance Sheet And Financial Health

Vermilion’s balance sheet shows CAD 131.7 million in cash and equivalents against total debt of CAD 1.02 billion, indicating moderate leverage. The company’s ability to generate consistent operating cash flow supports its debt servicing capacity. However, the negative net income raises questions about long-term profitability sustainability if commodity prices remain volatile.

Growth Trends And Dividend Policy

Vermilion’s growth is tied to its diversified asset base and strategic development projects. The company pays a dividend of CAD 0.49 per share, signaling confidence in cash flow stability. Future growth will depend on successful execution of its capital program and commodity price trends, with a focus on balancing reinvestment and shareholder returns.

Valuation And Market Expectations

With a market cap of CAD 1.35 billion and a beta of 1.54, Vermilion is viewed as a higher-risk play within the energy sector, sensitive to oil and gas price swings. The market appears to price in volatility, reflecting both its international diversification and exposure to geopolitical and commodity risks.

Strategic Advantages And Outlook

Vermilion’s key strengths include its geographically diversified portfolio and balanced production mix. The company is well-positioned to benefit from energy demand recovery but faces risks from price volatility and regulatory changes. Its focus on operational efficiency and disciplined capital allocation should support resilience in uncertain markets.

Sources

Company filings, market data

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FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

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