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Intrinsic Value of Valero Energy Corporation (VLO)

Previous Close$131.48
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$131.48

VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue, mln $Initial revenue growth rate, %Variable cost ratio, %Fixed operating exp., mln $Prod. assets / Revenue, %Working capital / Revenue, %Interest rate on debt, %Initial discount rate, %Shares outstanding, mlnAdjusted equity ratioAdjusted assets / RevenueCash & ST InvestmentsTotal debt

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2024 and quarterly data as of 2024-12-31.

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year2025202620272028202920302031203220332034203520362037203820392040204120422043204420452046204720482049

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue growth rate, %-10.3-9.5-8.8-8.1-7.5-6.8-6.2-5.7-5.2-4.6-4.2-3.7-3.3-2.9-2.5-2.1-1.7-1.4-1.1-0.8-0.5-0.20.00.30.5
Revenue, $1165031053959611188309817207613171375673186385160886583535619254356528055150550429495554886348336479624773047629476534779548049
Variable operating expenses, $m100542909568294476211705246570161597580955510352545503594849446909455714444943521427664216841714413914119141104411254124741467
Fixed operating expenses, $m152381653317938194632111722912248602697329266317533445237381405584400647746518055620860986661707179477896845189170299496107953
Total operating expenses, $m1157801074891008829567491641886138645785068843698429884811858758746789577921959532698974103154107884113185119087125622132827140743149420
Operating income, $m723-2094-4771-7365-9922-12483-15082-17751-20518-23412-26458-29683-33112-36772-40690-44896-49419-54292-59547-65223-71357-77992-85173-92948-101371
EBITDA, $m3506403-2513-5305-8030-10731-13450-16221-19076-22044-25153-28432-31907-35607-39559-43792-48338-53230-58500-64187-70330-76970-84153-91927-100347
Interest expense (income), $m46237825014353-23-87-142-189-228-263-292-317-338-356-371-383-393-401-407-412-414-415-415-413
Earnings before tax, $m262-2472-5021-7508-9975-12460-14995-17609-20330-23184-26195-29391-32795-36434-40334-44525-49036-53898-59146-64816-70946-77578-84758-92533-100957
Tax expense, $m71000000000000000000000000
Net income, $m191-2472-5021-7508-9975-12460-14995-17609-20330-23184-26195-29391-32795-36434-40334-44525-49036-53898-59146-64816-70946-77578-84758-92533-100957

BALANCE SHEET

Cash and short-term investments, $m0000000000000000000000000
Total assets, $m55922505894613342388392253654334260323123064829225280092697226091253462472224206237862345423201230222291022862228732294123064
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m55922505894613342388392253654334260323123064829225280092697226091253462472224206237862345423201230222291022862228732294123064
Average production assets, $m27961252952306721194196131827117130161561532414613140051348613045126731236112103118931172711601115111145511431114371147111532
Working capital, $m5359484844214062375935023283309729372801268425852500242923692320228022482223220621962191219221992210
Total debt, $m9452625335791332-566-2175-3545-4714-5712-6566-7295-7918-8446-8893-9268-9577-9829-10029-10180-10288-10355-10384-10377-10336-10263
Total liabilities, $m33553303542768025433235352192620556193871838917535168061618315655152081483314524142721407213921138131374613717137241376513838
Total equity, $m223692023618453169551569014617137041292512259116901120410789104361013998899682951593829281920991649145914991779225
Debt-to-equity ratio0.5160.4670.3390.2110.085-0.039-0.159-0.274-0.384-0.489-0.586-0.676-0.759-0.833-0.899-0.957-1.007-1.048-1.081-1.105-1.123-1.132-1.135-1.131-1.120
Adjusted equity ratio0.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.400

CASH FLOW

Net income, $m191-2472-5021-7508-9975-12460-14995-17609-20330-23184-26195-29391-32795-36434-40334-44525-49036-53898-59146-64816-70946-77578-84758-92533-100957
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m2783249622582060189217511631152914431368130512501204116511321104108110621047103610281023102110211024
Funds from operations, $m297424-2763-5448-8083-10709-13363-16079-18887-21815-24891-28140-31591-35269-39203-43421-47955-52837-58099-63780-69918-76555-83737-91512-99933
Change in working capital, $m-615-511-427-359-303-257-219-187-159-136-117-99-84-71-60-49-40-32-24-17-11-51712
Cash from operations, $m3589535-2336-5089-7780-10452-13144-15893-18728-21679-24774-28041-31506-35198-39143-43372-47915-52805-58075-63763-69907-76551-83738-91519-99945
Maintenance CAPEX, $m-2783-2496-2258-2060-1892-1751-1631-1529-1443-1368-1305-1250-1204-1165-1132-1104-1081-1062-1047-1036-1028-1023-1021-1021-1024
New CAPEX, $m0000000000000000000000-6-34-61
Total CAPEX, $m-2783-2496-2258-2060-1892-1751-1631-1529-1443-1368-1305-1250-1204-1165-1132-1104-1081-1062-1047-1036-1028-1023-1026-1055-1085
Free cash flow, $m806-1961-4594-7149-9672-12203-14776-17422-20170-23047-26079-29291-32710-36362-40275-44476-48996-53867-59122-64799-70935-77574-84765-92574-101030
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m025531685951866011344140451679919638225922569028960324283612440075443104886153760590416474170900775588476992601101079
Retained Cash Flow, $m214821331782149812651073913779666569486415353298250207168133101724519-5-27-49
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $m-5
Cash available for distribution, $m2520000000000000000000000000
Discount rate, %4.905.155.405.675.966.256.576.897.247.607.988.388.809.249.7010.1910.7011.2311.7912.3813.0013.6514.3315.0515.80
PV of cash for distribution, $m2402000000000000000000000000
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %1009991775942271684210000000000000