Fiscal year | | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 | 2037 | 2038 | 2039 | 2040 | 2041 | 2042 | 2043 | 2044 | 2045 | 2046 | 2047 | 2048 | 2049 |
INCOME STATEMENT |
Revenue growth rate, % | | -10.3 | -9.5 | -8.8 | -8.1 | -7.5 | -6.8 | -6.2 | -5.7 | -5.2 | -4.6 | -4.2 | -3.7 | -3.3 | -2.9 | -2.5 | -2.1 | -1.7 | -1.4 | -1.1 | -0.8 | -0.5 | -0.2 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.5 |
Revenue, $ | | 116503 | 105395 | 96111 | 88309 | 81720 | 76131 | 71375 | 67318 | 63851 | 60886 | 58353 | 56192 | 54356 | 52805 | 51505 | 50429 | 49555 | 48863 | 48336 | 47962 | 47730 | 47629 | 47653 | 47795 | 48049 |
Variable operating expenses, $m | | 100542 | 90956 | 82944 | 76211 | 70524 | 65701 | 61597 | 58095 | 55103 | 52545 | 50359 | 48494 | 46909 | 45571 | 44449 | 43521 | 42766 | 42168 | 41714 | 41391 | 41191 | 41104 | 41125 | 41247 | 41467 |
Fixed operating expenses, $m | | 15238 | 16533 | 17938 | 19463 | 21117 | 22912 | 24860 | 26973 | 29266 | 31753 | 34452 | 37381 | 40558 | 44006 | 47746 | 51805 | 56208 | 60986 | 66170 | 71794 | 77896 | 84518 | 91702 | 99496 | 107953 |
Total operating expenses, $m | | 115780 | 107489 | 100882 | 95674 | 91641 | 88613 | 86457 | 85068 | 84369 | 84298 | 84811 | 85875 | 87467 | 89577 | 92195 | 95326 | 98974 | 103154 | 107884 | 113185 | 119087 | 125622 | 132827 | 140743 | 149420 |
Operating income, $m | | 723 | -2094 | -4771 | -7365 | -9922 | -12483 | -15082 | -17751 | -20518 | -23412 | -26458 | -29683 | -33112 | -36772 | -40690 | -44896 | -49419 | -54292 | -59547 | -65223 | -71357 | -77992 | -85173 | -92948 | -101371 |
EBITDA, $m | | 3506 | 403 | -2513 | -5305 | -8030 | -10731 | -13450 | -16221 | -19076 | -22044 | -25153 | -28432 | -31907 | -35607 | -39559 | -43792 | -48338 | -53230 | -58500 | -64187 | -70330 | -76970 | -84153 | -91927 | -100347 |
Interest expense (income), $m | | 462 | 378 | 250 | 143 | 53 | -23 | -87 | -142 | -189 | -228 | -263 | -292 | -317 | -338 | -356 | -371 | -383 | -393 | -401 | -407 | -412 | -414 | -415 | -415 | -413 |
Earnings before tax, $m | | 262 | -2472 | -5021 | -7508 | -9975 | -12460 | -14995 | -17609 | -20330 | -23184 | -26195 | -29391 | -32795 | -36434 | -40334 | -44525 | -49036 | -53898 | -59146 | -64816 | -70946 | -77578 | -84758 | -92533 | -100957 |
Tax expense, $m | | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Net income, $m | | 191 | -2472 | -5021 | -7508 | -9975 | -12460 | -14995 | -17609 | -20330 | -23184 | -26195 | -29391 | -32795 | -36434 | -40334 | -44525 | -49036 | -53898 | -59146 | -64816 | -70946 | -77578 | -84758 | -92533 | -100957 |
BALANCE SHEET |
Cash and short-term investments, $m | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Total assets, $m | | 55922 | 50589 | 46133 | 42388 | 39225 | 36543 | 34260 | 32312 | 30648 | 29225 | 28009 | 26972 | 26091 | 25346 | 24722 | 24206 | 23786 | 23454 | 23201 | 23022 | 22910 | 22862 | 22873 | 22941 | 23064 |
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m | | 55922 | 50589 | 46133 | 42388 | 39225 | 36543 | 34260 | 32312 | 30648 | 29225 | 28009 | 26972 | 26091 | 25346 | 24722 | 24206 | 23786 | 23454 | 23201 | 23022 | 22910 | 22862 | 22873 | 22941 | 23064 |
Average production assets, $m | | 27961 | 25295 | 23067 | 21194 | 19613 | 18271 | 17130 | 16156 | 15324 | 14613 | 14005 | 13486 | 13045 | 12673 | 12361 | 12103 | 11893 | 11727 | 11601 | 11511 | 11455 | 11431 | 11437 | 11471 | 11532 |
Working capital, $m | | 5359 | 4848 | 4421 | 4062 | 3759 | 3502 | 3283 | 3097 | 2937 | 2801 | 2684 | 2585 | 2500 | 2429 | 2369 | 2320 | 2280 | 2248 | 2223 | 2206 | 2196 | 2191 | 2192 | 2199 | 2210 |
Total debt, $m | | 9452 | 6253 | 3579 | 1332 | -566 | -2175 | -3545 | -4714 | -5712 | -6566 | -7295 | -7918 | -8446 | -8893 | -9268 | -9577 | -9829 | -10029 | -10180 | -10288 | -10355 | -10384 | -10377 | -10336 | -10263 |
Total liabilities, $m | | 33553 | 30354 | 27680 | 25433 | 23535 | 21926 | 20556 | 19387 | 18389 | 17535 | 16806 | 16183 | 15655 | 15208 | 14833 | 14524 | 14272 | 14072 | 13921 | 13813 | 13746 | 13717 | 13724 | 13765 | 13838 |
Total equity, $m | | 22369 | 20236 | 18453 | 16955 | 15690 | 14617 | 13704 | 12925 | 12259 | 11690 | 11204 | 10789 | 10436 | 10139 | 9889 | 9682 | 9515 | 9382 | 9281 | 9209 | 9164 | 9145 | 9149 | 9177 | 9225 |
Debt-to-equity ratio | | 0.516 | 0.467 | 0.339 | 0.211 | 0.085 | -0.039 | -0.159 | -0.274 | -0.384 | -0.489 | -0.586 | -0.676 | -0.759 | -0.833 | -0.899 | -0.957 | -1.007 | -1.048 | -1.081 | -1.105 | -1.123 | -1.132 | -1.135 | -1.131 | -1.120 |
Adjusted equity ratio | | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 |
CASH FLOW |
Net income, $m | | 191 | -2472 | -5021 | -7508 | -9975 | -12460 | -14995 | -17609 | -20330 | -23184 | -26195 | -29391 | -32795 | -36434 | -40334 | -44525 | -49036 | -53898 | -59146 | -64816 | -70946 | -77578 | -84758 | -92533 | -100957 |
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m | | 2783 | 2496 | 2258 | 2060 | 1892 | 1751 | 1631 | 1529 | 1443 | 1368 | 1305 | 1250 | 1204 | 1165 | 1132 | 1104 | 1081 | 1062 | 1047 | 1036 | 1028 | 1023 | 1021 | 1021 | 1024 |
Funds from operations, $m | | 2974 | 24 | -2763 | -5448 | -8083 | -10709 | -13363 | -16079 | -18887 | -21815 | -24891 | -28140 | -31591 | -35269 | -39203 | -43421 | -47955 | -52837 | -58099 | -63780 | -69918 | -76555 | -83737 | -91512 | -99933 |
Change in working capital, $m | | -615 | -511 | -427 | -359 | -303 | -257 | -219 | -187 | -159 | -136 | -117 | -99 | -84 | -71 | -60 | -49 | -40 | -32 | -24 | -17 | -11 | -5 | 1 | 7 | 12 |
Cash from operations, $m | | 3589 | 535 | -2336 | -5089 | -7780 | -10452 | -13144 | -15893 | -18728 | -21679 | -24774 | -28041 | -31506 | -35198 | -39143 | -43372 | -47915 | -52805 | -58075 | -63763 | -69907 | -76551 | -83738 | -91519 | -99945 |
Maintenance CAPEX, $m | | -2783 | -2496 | -2258 | -2060 | -1892 | -1751 | -1631 | -1529 | -1443 | -1368 | -1305 | -1250 | -1204 | -1165 | -1132 | -1104 | -1081 | -1062 | -1047 | -1036 | -1028 | -1023 | -1021 | -1021 | -1024 |
New CAPEX, $m | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -6 | -34 | -61 |
Total CAPEX, $m | | -2783 | -2496 | -2258 | -2060 | -1892 | -1751 | -1631 | -1529 | -1443 | -1368 | -1305 | -1250 | -1204 | -1165 | -1132 | -1104 | -1081 | -1062 | -1047 | -1036 | -1028 | -1023 | -1026 | -1055 | -1085 |
Free cash flow, $m | | 806 | -1961 | -4594 | -7149 | -9672 | -12203 | -14776 | -17422 | -20170 | -23047 | -26079 | -29291 | -32710 | -36362 | -40275 | -44476 | -48996 | -53867 | -59122 | -64799 | -70935 | -77574 | -84765 | -92574 | -101030 |
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m | | 0 | 255 | 3168 | 5951 | 8660 | 11344 | 14045 | 16799 | 19638 | 22592 | 25690 | 28960 | 32428 | 36124 | 40075 | 44310 | 48861 | 53760 | 59041 | 64741 | 70900 | 77558 | 84769 | 92601 | 101079 |
Retained Cash Flow, $m | | 2148 | 2133 | 1782 | 1498 | 1265 | 1073 | 913 | 779 | 666 | 569 | 486 | 415 | 353 | 298 | 250 | 207 | 168 | 133 | 101 | 72 | 45 | 19 | -5 | -27 | -49 |
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $m | | -5 |
Cash available for distribution, $m | | 2520 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Discount rate, % | | 4.90 | 5.15 | 5.40 | 5.67 | 5.96 | 6.25 | 6.57 | 6.89 | 7.24 | 7.60 | 7.98 | 8.38 | 8.80 | 9.24 | 9.70 | 10.19 | 10.70 | 11.23 | 11.79 | 12.38 | 13.00 | 13.65 | 14.33 | 15.05 | 15.80 |
PV of cash for distribution, $m | | 2402 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Current shareholders' claim on cash, % | | 100 | 99 | 91 | 77 | 59 | 42 | 27 | 16 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |