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Intrinsic Value of Xenia Hotels & Resorts, Inc. (XHR)

Previous Close$11.81
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$11.81

VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue, mln $Initial revenue growth rate, %Variable cost ratio, %Fixed operating exp., mln $Prod. assets / Revenue, %Working capital / Revenue, %Interest rate on debt, %Initial discount rate, %Shares outstanding, mlnAdjusted equity ratioAdjusted assets / RevenueCash & ST InvestmentsTotal debt

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2024 and quarterly data as of 2024-12-31.

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year2025202620272028202920302031203220332034203520362037203820392040204120422043204420452046204720482049

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue growth rate, %1.31.51.71.82.02.12.32.42.52.72.82.93.03.13.23.33.43.53.53.63.73.73.83.93.9
Revenue, $1053106810861106112811521178120712371270130613431384142714721521157216261684174418081876194720232102
Variable operating expenses, $m5765845946056176306446606776957147357577808058328608909219549891026106511061150
Fixed operating expenses, $m41645149053157762667973779986794110211108120213041415153516651807196021272308250427172948
Total operating expenses, $m992103510841136119412561323139714761562165517561865198221092247239525552728291431163334356938234098
Operating income, $m61322-31-66-104-145-190-239-292-349-412-481-555-637-726-823-929-1044-1170-1308-1458-1622-1801-1996
EBITDA, $m63354-28-63-101-143-187-236-289-347-409-478-552-634-723-819-925-1041-1167-1304-1454-1618-1796-1991
Interest expense (income), $m536465666869707274767880838588919497100104108112116120125
Earnings before tax, $m7-32-63-97-133-173-216-262-313-367-427-492-563-640-725-816-916-1026-1145-1274-1416-1570-1738-1921-2121
Tax expense, $m2000000000000000000000000
Net income, $m5-32-63-97-133-173-216-262-313-367-427-492-563-640-725-816-916-1026-1145-1274-1416-1570-1738-1921-2121

BALANCE SHEET

Cash and short-term investments, $m0000000000000000000000000
Total assets, $m2758279928452897295530183087316132423328342135203626373838573984411842614411457047384915510252995507
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m2758279928452897295530183087316132423328342135203626373838573984411842614411457047384915510252995507
Average production assets, $m12121212121313131414141515161617171819192021212223
Working capital, $m-18-18-18-19-19-20-20-21-21-22-22-23-24-24-25-26-27-28-29-30-31-32-33-34-36
Total debt, $m1606163016581690172417621803184818961948200420632127219422662342242225082598269327942900301231313255
Total liabilities, $m1655167917071738177318111852189719451997205221122175224323142390247125562647274228432949306131793304
Total equity, $m1103111911381159118212071235126412971331136814081450149515431594164717041764182818951966204121202203
Debt-to-equity ratio1.2101.4341.4331.4311.4301.4281.4271.4261.4251.4241.4241.4231.4231.4221.4221.4221.4211.4211.4211.4211.4211.4211.4211.4211.421
Adjusted equity ratio0.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.4000.400

CASH FLOW

Net income, $m5-32-63-97-133-173-216-262-313-367-427-492-563-640-725-816-916-1026-1145-1274-1416-1570-1738-1921-2121
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m2222223333333333334444444
Funds from operations, $m8-29-61-95-131-170-213-260-310-365-424-489-560-637-721-813-913-1022-1141-1271-1412-1566-1734-1917-2117
Change in working capital, $m00000000-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1
Cash from operations, $m8-29-60-94-131-170-213-259-309-364-424-489-560-637-721-812-912-1021-1140-1269-1411-1565-1733-1916-2115
Maintenance CAPEX, $m-2-2-2-2-2-2-3-3-3-3-3-3-3-3-3-3-3-3-4-4-4-4-4-4-4
New CAPEX, $m00000000000000-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1
Total CAPEX, $m-2-2-3-3-3-3-3-3-3-3-3-3-3-4-4-4-4-4-4-4-5-5-5-5-5
Free cash flow, $m5-32-63-97-133-173-215-262-312-367-427-492-563-640-724-816-916-1025-1144-1274-1415-1569-1738-1921-2120
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m0488211815619824329234540246453260568577286797010821204133714821640181220002204
Retained Cash Flow, $m38-16-19-21-23-25-28-30-32-35-37-40-42-45-48-51-54-57-60-64-67-71-75-79-83
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $m103
Cash available for distribution, $m138000000000000000000000000
Discount rate, %5.305.565.846.146.446.767.107.467.838.228.639.069.529.9910.4911.0211.5712.1512.7613.3914.0614.7715.5016.2817.09
PV of cash for distribution, $m131000000000000000000000000
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %10096898071605040312417129642211000000