Fiscal year | | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | 2034 | 2035 | 2036 | 2037 | 2038 | 2039 | 2040 | 2041 | 2042 | 2043 | 2044 | 2045 | 2046 | 2047 | 2048 | 2049 |
INCOME STATEMENT |
Revenue growth rate, % | | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 3.9 |
Revenue, $ | | 1053 | 1068 | 1086 | 1106 | 1128 | 1152 | 1178 | 1207 | 1237 | 1270 | 1306 | 1343 | 1384 | 1427 | 1472 | 1521 | 1572 | 1626 | 1684 | 1744 | 1808 | 1876 | 1947 | 2023 | 2102 |
Variable operating expenses, $m | | 576 | 584 | 594 | 605 | 617 | 630 | 644 | 660 | 677 | 695 | 714 | 735 | 757 | 780 | 805 | 832 | 860 | 890 | 921 | 954 | 989 | 1026 | 1065 | 1106 | 1150 |
Fixed operating expenses, $m | | 416 | 451 | 490 | 531 | 577 | 626 | 679 | 737 | 799 | 867 | 941 | 1021 | 1108 | 1202 | 1304 | 1415 | 1535 | 1665 | 1807 | 1960 | 2127 | 2308 | 2504 | 2717 | 2948 |
Total operating expenses, $m | | 992 | 1035 | 1084 | 1136 | 1194 | 1256 | 1323 | 1397 | 1476 | 1562 | 1655 | 1756 | 1865 | 1982 | 2109 | 2247 | 2395 | 2555 | 2728 | 2914 | 3116 | 3334 | 3569 | 3823 | 4098 |
Operating income, $m | | 61 | 32 | 2 | -31 | -66 | -104 | -145 | -190 | -239 | -292 | -349 | -412 | -481 | -555 | -637 | -726 | -823 | -929 | -1044 | -1170 | -1308 | -1458 | -1622 | -1801 | -1996 |
EBITDA, $m | | 63 | 35 | 4 | -28 | -63 | -101 | -143 | -187 | -236 | -289 | -347 | -409 | -478 | -552 | -634 | -723 | -819 | -925 | -1041 | -1167 | -1304 | -1454 | -1618 | -1796 | -1991 |
Interest expense (income), $m | | 53 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 72 | 74 | 76 | 78 | 80 | 83 | 85 | 88 | 91 | 94 | 97 | 100 | 104 | 108 | 112 | 116 | 120 | 125 |
Earnings before tax, $m | | 7 | -32 | -63 | -97 | -133 | -173 | -216 | -262 | -313 | -367 | -427 | -492 | -563 | -640 | -725 | -816 | -916 | -1026 | -1145 | -1274 | -1416 | -1570 | -1738 | -1921 | -2121 |
Tax expense, $m | | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Net income, $m | | 5 | -32 | -63 | -97 | -133 | -173 | -216 | -262 | -313 | -367 | -427 | -492 | -563 | -640 | -725 | -816 | -916 | -1026 | -1145 | -1274 | -1416 | -1570 | -1738 | -1921 | -2121 |
BALANCE SHEET |
Cash and short-term investments, $m | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Total assets, $m | | 2758 | 2799 | 2845 | 2897 | 2955 | 3018 | 3087 | 3161 | 3242 | 3328 | 3421 | 3520 | 3626 | 3738 | 3857 | 3984 | 4118 | 4261 | 4411 | 4570 | 4738 | 4915 | 5102 | 5299 | 5507 |
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m | | 2758 | 2799 | 2845 | 2897 | 2955 | 3018 | 3087 | 3161 | 3242 | 3328 | 3421 | 3520 | 3626 | 3738 | 3857 | 3984 | 4118 | 4261 | 4411 | 4570 | 4738 | 4915 | 5102 | 5299 | 5507 |
Average production assets, $m | | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 16 | 16 | 17 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 21 | 22 | 23 |
Working capital, $m | | -18 | -18 | -18 | -19 | -19 | -20 | -20 | -21 | -21 | -22 | -22 | -23 | -24 | -24 | -25 | -26 | -27 | -28 | -29 | -30 | -31 | -32 | -33 | -34 | -36 |
Total debt, $m | | 1606 | 1630 | 1658 | 1690 | 1724 | 1762 | 1803 | 1848 | 1896 | 1948 | 2004 | 2063 | 2127 | 2194 | 2266 | 2342 | 2422 | 2508 | 2598 | 2693 | 2794 | 2900 | 3012 | 3131 | 3255 |
Total liabilities, $m | | 1655 | 1679 | 1707 | 1738 | 1773 | 1811 | 1852 | 1897 | 1945 | 1997 | 2052 | 2112 | 2175 | 2243 | 2314 | 2390 | 2471 | 2556 | 2647 | 2742 | 2843 | 2949 | 3061 | 3179 | 3304 |
Total equity, $m | | 1103 | 1119 | 1138 | 1159 | 1182 | 1207 | 1235 | 1264 | 1297 | 1331 | 1368 | 1408 | 1450 | 1495 | 1543 | 1594 | 1647 | 1704 | 1764 | 1828 | 1895 | 1966 | 2041 | 2120 | 2203 |
Debt-to-equity ratio | | 1.210 | 1.434 | 1.433 | 1.431 | 1.430 | 1.428 | 1.427 | 1.426 | 1.425 | 1.424 | 1.424 | 1.423 | 1.423 | 1.422 | 1.422 | 1.422 | 1.421 | 1.421 | 1.421 | 1.421 | 1.421 | 1.421 | 1.421 | 1.421 | 1.421 |
Adjusted equity ratio | | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 | 0.400 |
CASH FLOW |
Net income, $m | | 5 | -32 | -63 | -97 | -133 | -173 | -216 | -262 | -313 | -367 | -427 | -492 | -563 | -640 | -725 | -816 | -916 | -1026 | -1145 | -1274 | -1416 | -1570 | -1738 | -1921 | -2121 |
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m | | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
Funds from operations, $m | | 8 | -29 | -61 | -95 | -131 | -170 | -213 | -260 | -310 | -365 | -424 | -489 | -560 | -637 | -721 | -813 | -913 | -1022 | -1141 | -1271 | -1412 | -1566 | -1734 | -1917 | -2117 |
Change in working capital, $m | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
Cash from operations, $m | | 8 | -29 | -60 | -94 | -131 | -170 | -213 | -259 | -309 | -364 | -424 | -489 | -560 | -637 | -721 | -812 | -912 | -1021 | -1140 | -1269 | -1411 | -1565 | -1733 | -1916 | -2115 |
Maintenance CAPEX, $m | | -2 | -2 | -2 | -2 | -2 | -2 | -3 | -3 | -3 | -3 | -3 | -3 | -3 | -3 | -3 | -3 | -3 | -3 | -4 | -4 | -4 | -4 | -4 | -4 | -4 |
New CAPEX, $m | | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 |
Total CAPEX, $m | | -2 | -2 | -3 | -3 | -3 | -3 | -3 | -3 | -3 | -3 | -3 | -3 | -3 | -4 | -4 | -4 | -4 | -4 | -4 | -4 | -5 | -5 | -5 | -5 | -5 |
Free cash flow, $m | | 5 | -32 | -63 | -97 | -133 | -173 | -215 | -262 | -312 | -367 | -427 | -492 | -563 | -640 | -724 | -816 | -916 | -1025 | -1144 | -1274 | -1415 | -1569 | -1738 | -1921 | -2120 |
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $m | | 0 | 48 | 82 | 118 | 156 | 198 | 243 | 292 | 345 | 402 | 464 | 532 | 605 | 685 | 772 | 867 | 970 | 1082 | 1204 | 1337 | 1482 | 1640 | 1812 | 2000 | 2204 |
Retained Cash Flow, $m | | 38 | -16 | -19 | -21 | -23 | -25 | -28 | -30 | -32 | -35 | -37 | -40 | -42 | -45 | -48 | -51 | -54 | -57 | -60 | -64 | -67 | -71 | -75 | -79 | -83 |
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $m | | 103 |
Cash available for distribution, $m | | 138 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Discount rate, % | | 5.30 | 5.56 | 5.84 | 6.14 | 6.44 | 6.76 | 7.10 | 7.46 | 7.83 | 8.22 | 8.63 | 9.06 | 9.52 | 9.99 | 10.49 | 11.02 | 11.57 | 12.15 | 12.76 | 13.39 | 14.06 | 14.77 | 15.50 | 16.28 | 17.09 |
PV of cash for distribution, $m | | 131 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Current shareholders' claim on cash, % | | 100 | 96 | 89 | 80 | 71 | 60 | 50 | 40 | 31 | 24 | 17 | 12 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |