Stock Analysis & Valuation Clean Energy Fuels Corp. (0I04.L)

• Previous Close: £2.17
• Sector Valuation Confidence Level: Low

Valuation method	Value, £	Upside, %
Artificial intelligence (AI)	13.90	541
Intrinsic value (DCF)	0.74	-66
Graham-Dodd Method	0.80	-63
Graham Formula		n/a

Strategic Investment Analysis

Company Overview

Clean Energy Fuels Corp. (NASDAQ: CLNE) is a leading provider of renewable natural gas (RNG) and other alternative fuels for vehicle fleets in the U.S. and Canada. Specializing in compressed natural gas (CNG), liquefied natural gas (LNG), and RNG solutions, the company serves heavy-duty trucking, airports, refuse, public transit, and industrial sectors. With a network of over 570 fueling stations across North America, Clean Energy Fuels plays a pivotal role in decarbonizing transportation by offering low-carbon fuel alternatives. The company also monetizes environmental credits such as Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs) and Low Carbon Fuel Standards (LCFS) credits, enhancing revenue streams. Headquartered in Newport Beach, California, Clean Energy Fuels is strategically positioned to benefit from increasing regulatory support for clean energy and the growing adoption of RNG in fleet operations.

Investment Summary

Clean Energy Fuels Corp. presents a high-risk, high-reward investment opportunity in the renewable energy sector. The company operates in a niche but growing market for RNG and alternative fuels, supported by favorable regulatory policies like LCFS and RINs. However, its negative net income (-$83M in the latest period) and high beta (2.577) indicate volatility and financial instability. The capital-intensive nature of fueling infrastructure and dependence on government incentives add to the risk. Long-term prospects are tied to the adoption of RNG in heavy-duty transport, where Clean Energy Fuels holds a first-mover advantage. Investors should weigh its growth potential against ongoing losses and competitive pressures.

Competitive Analysis

Clean Energy Fuels Corp. holds a unique position as one of the largest RNG providers for transportation in North America. Its competitive advantage lies in its extensive fueling station network (548 stations) and expertise in RNG production from dairy waste projects. The company benefits from regulatory tailwinds, as RNG qualifies for lucrative credits under LCFS and RIN programs. However, competition is intensifying with traditional oil giants like Shell and BP expanding into RNG, leveraging their vast distribution networks. Clean Energy’s focus on fleet customers provides sticky revenue but limits diversification. Its vertically integrated model—spanning fuel production, distribution, and station operations—differentiates it from pure-play fuel distributors but requires significant capex. The company’s ability to scale RNG production and maintain cost efficiency will be critical as larger energy players enter the space.

Major Competitors

• Shell plc (SHEL.L): Shell is a global energy giant investing heavily in RNG and low-carbon fuels. Its vast infrastructure and financial resources pose a threat to Clean Energy Fuels, but Shell’s broader focus on multiple energy verticals dilutes its RNG specialization. Shell’s strength lies in its ability to cross-sell RNG through existing retail networks.
• BP plc (BP.L): BP is expanding its bioenergy segment, including RNG, through acquisitions like Archaea Energy. Its scale and integration with traditional fuel distribution give it an edge, but BP’s slower pivot to RNG compared to Clean Energy Fuels’ dedicated focus leaves room for competition in niche markets like dairy-derived RNG.
• Westport Fuel Systems Inc. (WPRT): Westport specializes in natural gas engine technology, complementing Clean Energy’s fueling solutions. While not a direct competitor in fuel supply, Westport’s partnerships with OEMs could influence adoption rates of CNG/LNG vehicles, indirectly benefiting Clean Energy. Its weaker financials limit its threat level.
• Renewable Energy Group Inc. (REGI): Renewable Energy Group (now part of Chevron) focuses on biodiesel but overlaps with Clean Energy in renewable fuel credits. Its strong RINs trading capability and Chevron’s backing make it formidable, though its lack of RNG specialization leaves Clean Energy with an advantage in gas-based solutions.