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Stock Analysis & ValuationNiSource Inc. (0K87.L)

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Previous Close
£43.86
Sector Valuation Confidence Level
Moderate
Valuation methodValue, £Upside, %
Artificial intelligence (AI)16.50-62
Intrinsic value (DCF)17.92-59
Graham-Dodd Method6.10-86
Graham Formula9.10-79

Strategic Investment Analysis

Company Overview

NiSource Inc. (LSE: 0K87.L) is a leading U.S.-based energy holding company operating as a regulated natural gas and electric utility. Headquartered in Merrillville, Indiana, NiSource serves approximately 2.4 million natural gas customers across Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Kentucky, and Maryland, along with 853,000 customers in northern Indiana. The company also provides electricity to 483,000 customers in northern Indiana through its Electric Operations segment. NiSource manages an extensive infrastructure, including 54,600 miles of distribution pipelines and 1,000 miles of transmission pipelines. Its diversified energy portfolio includes coal-fired, natural gas, hydro, and wind generation assets, totaling over 1,700 megawatts (MW) of capacity. As a key player in the General Utilities sector, NiSource is committed to sustainable energy transitions while maintaining reliable service for its residential, commercial, and industrial customers. With a history dating back to 1847, NiSource combines regulatory stability with strategic investments in cleaner energy solutions, positioning itself as a critical utility provider in the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic regions.

Investment Summary

NiSource presents a stable investment opportunity within the regulated utility sector, supported by predictable cash flows and a strong dividend yield (currently $1.09 per share). The company's low beta (0.535) indicates relative resilience to market volatility, appealing to risk-averse investors. However, high total debt ($13.99B) and substantial capital expenditures ($2.61B) could pressure financial flexibility amid rising interest rates. Regulatory frameworks provide revenue stability, but transition risks loom as NiSource shifts from coal-fired generation (1,177MW capacity) toward renewables. The stock may suit income-focused investors, but growth depends on successful rate case approvals and infrastructure modernization.

Competitive Analysis

NiSource competes in the highly regulated U.S. utility market, where scale and regulatory relationships are critical. Its Gas Distribution Operations segment benefits from geographic diversification across six states, reducing reliance on any single regulatory jurisdiction. The Electric Operations segment, however, is concentrated solely in Indiana, exposing it to state-specific policy risks. NiSource’s competitive advantage lies in its hybrid gas-electric model, which provides revenue diversification absent in pure-play utilities. The company’s 54,600-mile gas pipeline network creates high barriers to entry, but aging infrastructure requires ongoing capex. Compared to peers, NiSource lags in renewable energy penetration (only 409MW wind/hydro vs. 1,177MW coal), potentially increasing transition costs as decarbonization policies advance. Its $1.8B annual operating cash flow supports dividends but leaves limited room for aggressive renewable investments without rate hikes. Regulatory expertise is a strength, with 100% of earnings from regulated operations ensuring stability but capping upside potential. The company must balance infrastructure upgrades with customer affordability to maintain its 7.3% ROE (based on $758.8M net income).

Major Competitors

  • Dominion Energy (D): Dominion (NYSE: D) operates across 16 states with a larger scale ($33B market cap) and more aggressive renewable targets (16GW by 2035). Its weakness includes high debt ($43B) and recent dividend cuts, but its Atlantic Coast Pipeline experience gives it regulatory leverage NiSource lacks.
  • Duke Energy (DUK): Duke (NYSE: DUK) dominates the Southeast with a $76B market cap and 7.7M customers. Its nuclear fleet (11GW) provides low-carbon baseload power, but NiSource’s gas focus offers faster coal phase-out flexibility. Duke’s larger renewable pipeline (16GW by 2030) outpaces NiSource’s modest wind investments.
  • American Electric Power (AEP): AEP (NASDAQ: AEP) shares NiSource’s Midwest focus but operates across 11 states with 5.5M customers. Its 26GW coal-heavy generation (38% of mix) faces similar transition risks, but AEP’s $42B market cap provides better financing scale. NiSource’s gas distribution diversifies risk compared to AEP’s pure-play electric model.
  • Southern Company (SO): Southern (NYSE: SO) excels in regulated utilities ($78B market cap) and leads in nuclear (Vogtle expansion). Its gas distribution is smaller than NiSource’s, but its 12GW renewable portfolio dwarfs NiSource’s. Southern’s recent cost overruns at Vogtle highlight project execution risks NiSource avoids with smaller-scale investments.
  • Public Service Enterprise Group (PEG): PSEG (NYSE: PEG) focuses on the Northeast with 2.3M electric/gas customers. Its zero-carbon nuclear (6GW) and solar investments align better with decarbonization trends than NiSource’s coal assets. However, NiSource’s broader gas distribution provides more stable cash flows than PSEG’s merchant generation exposure.
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