| Valuation method | Value, £ | Upside, % |
|---|---|---|
| Artificial intelligence (AI) | 8.50 | -97 |
| Intrinsic value (DCF) | 96.38 | -63 |
| Graham-Dodd Method | 14.70 | -94 |
| Graham Formula | 22.70 | -91 |
NP3 Fastigheter AB (publ) is a leading Swedish real estate company specializing in commercial property rentals, with a diverse portfolio spanning commercial, industrial, logistics, office, and mixed-use properties. Headquartered in Sundsvall, Sweden, the company owns approximately 1,784,000 square meters of lettable area across key regions including Gävle, Dalarna, Östersund, Umeå, and Central Sweden. NP3 Fastigheter's properties include housing, restaurants, storage facilities, gyms, hotels, and community assets like schools, making it a versatile player in the Nordic real estate market. Founded in 2007, the company has established itself as a reliable landlord with a strong regional presence. Its strategic focus on high-demand areas and diversified tenant base enhances revenue stability. NP3 Fastigheter is listed on the London Stock Exchange (LSE) and appeals to investors seeking exposure to Sweden's resilient commercial real estate sector, supported by steady rental income and long-term growth potential.
NP3 Fastigheter presents a compelling investment case with its diversified commercial real estate portfolio and strong regional presence in Sweden. The company's revenue of SEK 1.99 billion and net income of SEK 914 million (FY 2021) reflect stable cash flows, supported by a high occupancy rate and long-term leases. However, its elevated beta of 1.589 indicates sensitivity to market volatility, and a substantial total debt of SEK 12.73 billion could pose refinancing risks in a rising interest rate environment. The dividend yield, with SEK 2.8 per share, adds income appeal, but investors should weigh this against leverage and macroeconomic headwinds in the real estate sector. NP3's focus on secondary cities may offer growth potential, but competition and regional economic fluctuations remain key risks.
NP3 Fastigheter competes in Sweden's fragmented commercial real estate market, leveraging its regional expertise and diversified asset base. Its competitive advantage lies in its focus on secondary cities like Sundsvall and Umeå, where demand for quality commercial spaces is growing but competition is less intense compared to Stockholm. The company's mixed-use properties (e.g., combining offices with housing or community facilities) provide resilience against sector-specific downturns. However, NP3 lacks the scale of national giants like Castellum or Wihlborgs, limiting its bargaining power with large tenants. Its debt-to-equity ratio is higher than some peers, reflecting aggressive expansion but increasing vulnerability to interest rate hikes. NP3's operational efficiency is a strength, with stable cash flows (SEK 864 million operating cash flow in 2021), yet its reliance on Sweden's economic health—particularly in smaller cities—could be a weakness if regional growth slows. The company's niche in logistics and community properties aligns with post-pandemic trends, but it faces stiff competition from specialized players in these segments.