investorscraft@gmail.com

Stock Analysis & ValuationChina Risun Group Limited (1907.HK)

Professional Stock Screener
Previous Close
HK$2.75
Sector Valuation Confidence Level
Moderate
Valuation methodValue, HK$Upside, %
Artificial intelligence (AI)21.10667
Intrinsic value (DCF)1.54-44
Graham-Dodd Method2.802
Graham Formula0.10-96

Strategic Investment Analysis

Company Overview

China Risun Group Limited is a leading integrated coke and chemical producer headquartered in Beijing, China. Founded in 1995 and listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, the company operates across four core segments: Coke and Coking Chemicals Manufacturing, Refined Chemicals Manufacturing, Operation Management services, and Trading activities. Risun specializes in producing coke, coking chemicals, and refined chemical products including crude benzene, industrial naphthalene, phthalic anhydride, methanol, coal-tar pitch, and caprolactam. The company serves critical industries including iron and steel, non-ferrous metals, and chemical manufacturing, providing essential raw materials for industrial production. As a vertically integrated operator in China's basic materials sector, Risun leverages its comprehensive production capabilities and operational expertise to maintain its position in the competitive coal chemicals market. The company also offers operation management services to third-party coke and chemical companies, providing additional revenue streams while demonstrating its technical capabilities in the industry.

Investment Summary

China Risun presents a high-risk investment proposition characterized by significant financial leverage and thin profitability margins. The company's HK$30.4 billion total debt substantially outweighs its HK$2.1 billion cash position, creating substantial financial risk in a cyclical industry. While the company generated HK$47.5 billion in revenue, net income of only HK$20.1 million reflects extremely tight margins of approximately 0.04%. The positive operating cash flow of HK$1.4 billion provides some operational stability, but the massive debt load and interest coverage concerns are paramount. The dividend yield of 0.0325 HKD per share offers some income attraction, but the overall financial structure suggests vulnerability to industry downturns or rising interest rates. Investors should carefully consider the company's ability to service its debt during industry cyclical troughs.

Competitive Analysis

China Risun's competitive positioning is defined by its vertical integration within the coke and chemical production value chain. The company's primary competitive advantage stems from its comprehensive product portfolio that spans from basic coke production to higher-value refined chemicals like caprolactam and phthalic anhydride. This integration allows Risun to capture margins across multiple production stages and provides some insulation against price volatility in individual product segments. The company's operation management services business represents a unique competitive differentiator, generating additional revenue while potentially creating industry partnerships and technical exchange opportunities. However, Risun faces intense competition from both large state-owned enterprises and private chemical producers in China's fragmented market. The company's significant debt burden (HK$30.4 billion) compared to its market capitalization (HK$10.8 billion) creates a competitive disadvantage in terms of financial flexibility and investment capacity relative to better-capitalized competitors. Risun's export capabilities provide some geographic diversification, but the company remains predominantly exposed to the Chinese domestic market and its cyclical demand patterns, particularly from the steel industry which is a major consumer of coke products.

Major Competitors

  • Kailuan Energy Chemical Co., Ltd. (600997.SS): Kailuan Energy is a major integrated energy and chemical company with strong coke production capabilities. The company benefits from vertical integration with coal mining operations, providing cost advantages in raw material sourcing. However, Kailuan faces challenges in environmental compliance and operates in a highly competitive regional market. Compared to Risun, Kailuan has stronger upstream integration but potentially less diversified chemical product portfolio.
  • Shanxi Blue Flame Holding Co., Ltd. (000968.SZ): Shanxi Blue Flame specializes in coalbed methane extraction and utilization, with growing operations in chemical production. The company has strengths in clean energy and environmental technology, positioning it well for China's green transition. However, its chemical operations are less diversified than Risun's, and the company faces technical challenges in scaling production. Blue Flame's cleaner energy focus provides regulatory advantages but may limit chemical production scale.
  • Yangmei Chemical Co., Ltd. (600691.SS): Yangmei Chemical is a large state-owned chemical producer with extensive coke and chemical operations. The company benefits from government support and established customer relationships, particularly in the state-owned enterprise sector. However, Yangmei faces efficiency challenges common to state-owned enterprises and may be less agile than private competitors like Risun. The company's scale provides cost advantages but also creates management complexity.
  • Shanxi Coking Co., Ltd. (600740.SS): Shanxi Coking is a specialized coke producer with strong regional presence in China's primary coal-producing region. The company benefits from proximity to raw materials and established logistics networks. However, its product diversification is limited compared to Risun's broader chemical portfolio, making it more vulnerable to coke price fluctuations. The company's narrower focus provides operational expertise but less revenue stability.
  • Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co., Ltd. (600426.SS): Hualu-Hengsheng is a diversified chemical producer with strengths in fertilizers and basic chemicals. The company has advanced production technology and strong R&D capabilities, particularly in nitrogen-based chemicals. However, its coke operations are less significant than its fertilizer business, creating different market exposures compared to Risun. The company's technological sophistication provides competitive advantages but requires continuous capital investment.
HomeMenuAccount