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Stock Analysis & ValuationLawson, Inc. (2651.T)

Professional Stock Screener
Previous Close
¥10,340.00
Sector Valuation Confidence Level
Low
Valuation methodValue, ¥Upside, %
Artificial intelligence (AI)n/an/a
Intrinsic value (DCF)n/a
Graham-Dodd Method2041.15-80
Graham Formula8622.64-17

Strategic Investment Analysis

Company Overview

Lawson, Inc. is a leading Japanese convenience store chain operating under the Lawson, Lawson Store 100, and Natural Lawson brands across Japan, China, Thailand, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Hawaii. As a subsidiary of Mitsubishi Corporation, Lawson operates 14,640 stores in Japan, offering a diverse range of products, including ready-made meals, over-the-counter pharmaceuticals, cosmetics, and daily necessities. The company also engages in financial services, entertainment (via United Cinemas and HMV stores), and supermarket operations (Seijo Ishii). With a strong domestic presence and strategic expansion in Asia-Pacific markets, Lawson leverages its multi-segment business model to drive growth. Its focus on convenience, diversified revenue streams, and integration with Mitsubishi Corporation’s supply chain strengthens its competitive edge in the consumer defensive sector. Lawson’s innovative store formats, such as Natural Lawson (health-focused) and Lawson Store 100 (discount-oriented), cater to evolving consumer preferences, positioning it as a resilient player in the discount store industry.

Investment Summary

Lawson, Inc. presents a stable investment opportunity with its dominant position in Japan’s convenience store market and growing overseas footprint. The company’s diversified revenue streams—spanning retail, financial services, and entertainment—reduce dependency on a single segment. With a market cap of ¥1.03 trillion and steady revenue of ¥1.09 trillion, Lawson demonstrates resilience, supported by a low beta (0.137), indicating lower volatility relative to the market. However, high total debt (¥1.01 trillion) and modest net income (¥52.1 billion) raise concerns about leverage and profitability. The dividend yield (~2.4% based on a ¥250/share payout) is attractive for income-focused investors. Investors should weigh Lawson’s strong cash flow (¥238.4 billion operating cash flow) against its capital-intensive expansion and competitive pressures in overseas markets.

Competitive Analysis

Lawson’s competitive advantage lies in its extensive store network, brand diversification (Lawson, Natural Lawson, Lawson Store 100), and integration with Mitsubishi Corporation’s supply chain, ensuring cost efficiency and product variety. Its focus on ready-made meals and health-oriented offerings (Natural Lawson) differentiates it from generic convenience stores. However, Lawson faces intense domestic competition from Seven-Eleven Japan (owned by Seven & i Holdings) and FamilyMart, which have larger store counts and stronger brand recognition. Overseas, Lawson’s growth is challenged by local players like China’s Alibaba-backed Hema and Thailand’s CP All (7-Eleven operator). Lawson’s entertainment and financial services segments provide ancillary revenue but are not core growth drivers. The company’s ability to innovate in store formats and digital services (e.g., cashless payments) will be critical to maintaining its market share against tech-savvy competitors.

Major Competitors

  • Seven & i Holdings Co., Ltd. (3382.T): Seven & i operates Japan’s largest convenience store chain, Seven-Eleven, with over 21,000 domestic stores. Its strengths include superior scale, a robust supply chain, and a strong private-label portfolio. However, its reliance on the saturated Japanese market and slower innovation in health-focused formats compared to Lawson’s Natural Lawson are weaknesses.
  • FamilyMart Co., Ltd. (8028.T): FamilyMart is Japan’s third-largest convenience store operator, known for its fresh food offerings and loyalty programs. Its partnership with Itochu enhances supply chain efficiency. However, it lags behind Lawson and Seven-Eleven in store count and overseas expansion, particularly in Southeast Asia.
  • CP All Public Company Limited (CPALL.BK): CP All operates Thailand’s 7-Eleven stores, dominating the local market with over 13,000 outlets. Its strengths include aggressive store expansion and strong local brand loyalty. However, its lack of diversification beyond convenience stores and limited presence outside Thailand contrast with Lawson’s multi-segment approach.
  • Suning.com Co., Ltd. (002024.SZ): Suning operates convenience stores and electronics retail chains in China. Its strengths include a vast offline network and e-commerce integration. However, its financial struggles and focus on electronics dilute its competitiveness in the convenience store segment compared to Lawson’s specialized offerings.
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