| Valuation method | Value, HK$ | Upside, % |
|---|---|---|
| Artificial intelligence (AI) | 192.90 | 98 |
| Intrinsic value (DCF) | 536.11 | 452 |
| Graham-Dodd Method | 57.80 | -41 |
| Graham Formula | 186.30 | 92 |
Meituan is China's leading e-commerce platform for local services, operating a comprehensive ecosystem that connects consumers with merchants across multiple service categories. Headquartered in Beijing and listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, Meituan dominates China's on-demand service market through three core segments: Food Delivery, In-store/Hotel/Travel services, and New Initiatives. The company's super-app strategy integrates food delivery, restaurant reservations, hotel bookings, travel services, grocery delivery, bike-sharing, and emerging fintech offerings. As a pioneer in China's O2O (online-to-offline) commerce sector, Meituan has transformed how Chinese consumers access local services, leveraging massive scale, sophisticated logistics networks, and deep data analytics to optimize merchant and consumer experiences. The platform serves hundreds of millions of active users and millions of merchants, positioning Meituan at the forefront of China's digital consumption revolution and making it an essential infrastructure for local commerce.
Meituan presents a compelling investment case as China's dominant local services platform with entrenched market leadership in food delivery and growing diversification into higher-margin segments. The company demonstrates strong financial performance with HKD 337.6 billion in revenue and HKD 35.8 billion net income, supported by robust operating cash flow of HKD 57.1 billion. With a market cap of approximately HKD 590 billion and low beta of 0.19, Meituan offers exposure to China's consumption upgrade story with defensive characteristics. Key risks include regulatory scrutiny of Chinese tech platforms, intensifying competition in newer segments like community e-commerce, and potential margin pressure from continued investments in growth initiatives. The lack of dividend payments reflects management's focus on reinvesting for expansion rather than shareholder returns.
Meituan maintains a dominant competitive position in China's local services market through several structural advantages. Its core food delivery business benefits from massive scale economies, with the largest delivery network and rider fleet in China creating significant barriers to entry. The platform's multi-service ecosystem creates powerful cross-selling opportunities and user stickiness, as consumers use Meituan for food, travel, and other daily needs. The company's sophisticated data analytics capabilities enable superior merchant solutions and personalized consumer experiences. However, Meituan faces intensifying competition across its business segments. In food delivery, Alibaba's Ele.me remains a persistent competitor with deep pockets, though Meituan maintains approximately 70% market share. In travel services, Meituan competes with Ctrip (Trip.com) in the budget and domestic travel segments, though Ctrip dominates premium and international travel. The newer initiatives face formidable competition: community e-commerce battles PDD Holdings' Duoduo Maicai and Alibaba's Taocaicai, while grocery delivery competes with Dingdong Maicai and Alibaba's Freshippo. Meituan's competitive moat remains strongest in its core food delivery business where scale, data, and network effects provide durable advantages.