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Stock Analysis & ValuationNCD Co., Ltd. (4783.T)

Professional Stock Screener
Previous Close
¥3,200.00
Sector Valuation Confidence Level
Low
Valuation methodValue, ¥Upside, %
Artificial intelligence (AI)2766.35-14
Intrinsic value (DCF)3123.47-2
Graham-Dodd Method1119.56-65
Graham Formula5949.3586

Strategic Investment Analysis

Company Overview

NCD Co., Ltd. (4783.T) is a Tokyo-based IT services company specializing in system development, support services, and parking system solutions in Japan. Operating in the Technology sector, NCD provides comprehensive IT infrastructure and application solutions, including system construction, maintenance, and business support services. Additionally, the company manages bicycle parking systems, offering consulting and operational services for urban mobility solutions. Founded in 1967, NCD has evolved into a niche player in Japan's IT services market, leveraging its expertise in both digital infrastructure and smart city applications. With a market capitalization of approximately ¥24.9 billion, NCD serves a diverse clientele, emphasizing long-term maintenance and operational efficiency. The company’s dual focus on IT services and urban mobility positions it uniquely in Japan's growing smart infrastructure and digital transformation landscape.

Investment Summary

NCD Co., Ltd. presents a stable but low-growth investment opportunity, characterized by its modest beta (0.166) and consistent profitability (net income of ¥1.39 billion in FY2024). The company’s revenue of ¥25.48 billion reflects steady demand for its IT and parking system services, supported by strong operating cash flow (¥2.57 billion). However, its small market cap and limited international exposure may constrain upside potential. The dividend yield (¥66 per share) adds appeal for income-focused investors, but growth prospects are tempered by Japan’s mature IT services market and competitive pressures. NCD’s low debt (¥2.02 billion) and healthy cash position (¥5.91 billion) provide financial stability, though capital expenditures remain minimal (-¥183 million), suggesting cautious reinvestment. Investors should weigh its defensive attributes against limited scalability.

Competitive Analysis

NCD Co., Ltd. competes in Japan’s fragmented IT services and smart infrastructure markets, where differentiation is critical. Its competitive advantage lies in integrated offerings combining IT solutions (e.g., system maintenance) with niche urban mobility services (e.g., bicycle parking systems). This dual focus allows cross-selling opportunities, though it lacks the scale of larger IT consultancies. NCD’s regional expertise in Japan provides localized support, a strength for domestic clients, but limits global reach. The company’s low beta suggests resilience to market volatility, likely due to recurring revenue from maintenance contracts. However, it faces stiff competition from larger IT service providers with broader capabilities and deeper R&D budgets. NCD’s parking system division is a differentiator, but growth depends on municipal and private sector adoption of smart city initiatives. While its financials are stable, the absence of aggressive expansion or technological innovation risks marginalization in a rapidly evolving sector. Competitors with cloud or AI-driven solutions may erode its market share over time.

Major Competitors

  • SCSK Corporation (9719.T): SCSK is a larger Japanese IT services firm with stronger enterprise client relationships and broader offerings, including cloud and cybersecurity solutions. Its scale and diversified portfolio overshadow NCD’s niche focus, though SCSK’s higher overhead may reduce agility in specialized projects like parking systems.
  • GungHo Online Entertainment (3765.T): Primarily a gaming company, GungHo’s IT infrastructure segment overlaps with NCD’s services. Its stronger brand and digital expertise pose indirect competition, but NCD retains an edge in legacy system maintenance and physical infrastructure solutions.
  • GMO Internet, Inc. (3903.T): GMO dominates internet infrastructure and cloud services, competing with NCD’s IT support segment. Its technological prowess and global reach contrast with NCD’s localized, traditional IT services. However, NCD’s parking systems business remains insulated from GMO’s core markets.
  • NS Solutions Corporation (2327.T): NS Solutions offers similar IT construction and maintenance services but with a stronger emphasis on financial and manufacturing sectors. Its larger scale and industry-specific solutions challenge NCD’s generalist approach, though NCD’s parking systems provide a unique revenue stream.
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