Stock Analysis & Valuation SoftBank Group Corp. (9984.T)

• Previous Close: ¥4,253.00
• Sector Valuation Confidence Level: High

Valuation method	Value, ¥	Upside, %
Artificial intelligence (AI)	6128.99	44
Intrinsic value (DCF)	6297.33	48
Graham-Dodd Method	7285.69	71
Graham Formula	11920.34	180

Strategic Investment Analysis

Company Overview

SoftBank Group Corp. (9984.T) is a Tokyo-based multinational conglomerate primarily engaged in telecommunications, technology investments, and venture capital. Operating through segments like SoftBank Vision Fund, Arm, and Latin America Funds, the company provides mobile and broadband services, e-commerce solutions, microprocessor IP development, and renewable energy services. SoftBank is a dominant player in Japan's telecom sector while also maintaining a global footprint through strategic investments in tech startups and AI-driven enterprises. The company’s diversified portfolio includes stakes in high-growth ventures like Arm Holdings, Alibaba, and numerous AI and robotics firms. SoftBank’s aggressive investment strategy, led by founder Masayoshi Son, positions it as a key influencer in global tech innovation. Despite recent financial volatility, its long-term vision in AI, robotics, and next-gen telecommunications keeps it relevant in the fast-evolving Communication Services sector.

Investment Summary

SoftBank Group presents a high-risk, high-reward investment proposition. Its expansive tech investment portfolio, including Arm Holdings and AI startups, offers significant upside if these ventures succeed. However, the company has struggled with profitability, reporting a net loss of ¥227.6B in FY2024, driven by Vision Fund writedowns and telecom sector pressures. SoftBank’s high debt (¥21.36T) and reliance on volatile tech investments raise concerns, but its strong cash position (¥6.19T) and strategic focus on AI provide long-term potential. The stock’s low beta (0.52) suggests relative stability compared to pure tech plays, but investors must weigh its speculative nature against its transformative ambitions.

Competitive Analysis

SoftBank Group’s competitive advantage lies in its dual role as a telecom operator and a tech investment powerhouse. Unlike traditional telecom rivals, SoftBank leverages its Vision Fund to gain exposure to disruptive technologies, giving it a unique edge in innovation. However, its telecom segment faces stiff competition from NTT Docomo and KDDI in Japan, where market saturation limits growth. SoftBank’s investment arm competes with global venture capital firms like Sequoia Capital and Tiger Global, but its scale ($100B+ Vision Fund) and founder-led vision differentiate it. The recent IPO of Arm Holdings strengthens its semiconductor IP positioning against Qualcomm and NVIDIA, though monetization remains a challenge. Financially, SoftBank’s high debt and reliance on asset sales for liquidity are weaknesses compared to cash-rich peers. Its competitive positioning hinges on successful exits from tech bets—particularly in AI—where it competes indirectly with Big Tech firms like Google and Microsoft.

Major Competitors

• NTT Docomo (9432.T): NTT Docomo dominates Japan’s telecom market with superior network infrastructure and stable revenue from mobile subscriptions. Unlike SoftBank, it avoids high-risk tech investments, focusing instead on 5G and IoT services. However, its lack of global tech exposure limits growth potential compared to SoftBank’s diversified model.
• KDDI Corporation (9433.T): KDDI rivals SoftBank in Japan’s telecom sector with strong financials and a growing digital services portfolio. Its strengths include robust cash flow and partnerships in fintech (au Pay). However, it lacks SoftBank’s aggressive tech investment strategy, making it less volatile but also less positioned for high-growth tech upside.
• Arm Holdings (ARM): A SoftBank portfolio company, Arm leads in semiconductor IP design, competing with Intel and NVIDIA. Its asset-light model and dominance in mobile chips are strengths, but reliance on licensing revenue and geopolitical risks (China market) pose challenges. SoftBank’s ownership provides synergies but also ties Arm’s performance to SoftBank’s financial health.
• Alibaba Group (BABA): Once SoftBank’s crown jewel, Alibaba remains a major e-commerce and cloud competitor. SoftBank’s stake provides liquidity potential, but Alibaba’s regulatory struggles in China and slowing growth contrast with SoftBank’s need for high-return exits. The relationship is now more financial than strategic.
• NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA): NVIDIA competes indirectly with SoftBank’s Arm in AI and semiconductor markets. NVIDIA’s vertical integration (chips + software) and AI leadership are strengths, but Arm’s neutrality in chip design gives it broader industry adoption. SoftBank’s ability to monetize Arm’s AI potential will determine its competitiveness against NVIDIA.