Stock Analysis & Valuation Aquila S.A. (ALAQU.PA)

• Previous Close: €3.62
• Sector Valuation Confidence Level: Moderate

Valuation method	Value, €	Upside, %
Artificial intelligence (AI)	19.13	428
Intrinsic value (DCF)	1.24	-66
Graham-Dodd Method	4.14	14
Graham Formula	4.17	15

Strategic Investment Analysis

Company Overview

Aquila SA (ALAQU.PA) is a leading provider of alarm intervention, security round, monitoring, and security guard services in France. Founded in 1993 and headquartered in Avignon, the company operates through a robust network of 300 security companies, ensuring comprehensive coverage and rapid response capabilities. Specializing in the Security & Protection Services sector within the Industrials industry, Aquila SA plays a critical role in safeguarding businesses and residential properties across the country. With a market capitalization of approximately €7.08 million, the company has established itself as a reliable player in the French security market. Aquila SA's services are essential in an era where security concerns are escalating, making it a relevant and resilient business. The company's commitment to operational excellence and customer trust positions it well for sustained growth in the competitive security services landscape.

Investment Summary

Aquila SA presents a niche investment opportunity in the French security services market, characterized by steady demand and recurring revenue streams. The company's modest market cap of €7.08 million and a beta of 0.723 suggest lower volatility compared to broader markets, appealing to conservative investors. However, with diluted EPS reported at zero and limited financial metrics available (such as operating cash flow and capital expenditures), potential investors should exercise caution. The dividend yield, with a payout of €0.65 per share, may attract income-focused investors, but further scrutiny of the company's profitability and cash flow sustainability is warranted. The security industry's defensive nature provides some downside protection, but Aquila's small scale and regional focus could limit growth prospects compared to larger, diversified competitors.

Competitive Analysis

Aquila SA operates in a highly fragmented and competitive French security services market. Its competitive advantage lies in its extensive network of 300 security companies, enabling localized service delivery and rapid response times—a critical factor in alarm intervention and monitoring services. The company's long-standing presence since 1993 has likely fostered strong relationships with clients and local authorities, enhancing its reputation and trust. However, Aquila's relatively small size (€30.1 million in revenue) may limit its ability to compete on price or technology investments compared to larger multinational players. The security industry is increasingly driven by technological advancements such as AI-powered surveillance and integrated smart security systems, areas where Aquila may lack scale to invest heavily. Its focus on traditional security services (guards, rounds, and alarms) differentiates it from tech-centric competitors but could also make it vulnerable to disruption. The company's low debt (€2,448) is a strength, providing financial flexibility, but its ability to innovate and expand beyond its regional stronghold will be key to maintaining competitiveness.

Major Competitors

• Compagnie de Saint-Gobain (SGO.PA): Saint-Gobain is a multinational conglomerate with a security division offering advanced building security solutions. Its vast resources and global R&D capabilities give it an edge in integrated security systems, but its broad focus dilutes its specialization in intervention services compared to Aquila. Saint-Gobain's scale allows for competitive pricing, but it may lack the localized responsiveness of Aquila's network.
• Proximus Group (PROX.PA): Proximus provides telecom and security services, including alarm monitoring. Its strength lies in combining connectivity with security, but its primary focus on telecom infrastructure means it is less specialized in physical security services than Aquila. Proximus's larger footprint in Benelux could pressure Aquila in cross-border contracts.
• Securitas AB (SECU.BR): Securitas is a global leader in security services, with a strong presence in Europe. Its scale and diversified offerings (e.g., electronic security, risk consulting) pose a threat to Aquila's market share. However, Securitas's size may lead to less personalized service, where Aquila's local network could retain an advantage in customer relationships.
• G4S plc (G4S.L): G4S (now part of Allied Universal) is a major player in security services worldwide. Its resources and technology investments overshadow Aquila's capabilities, but its post-acquisition integration challenges and focus on multinational clients may leave room for Aquila in regional French markets. G4S's reputation has faced scrutiny, potentially benefiting smaller, trusted local players like Aquila.