Stock Analysis & Valuation Astrana Health, Inc. (ASTH)

• Previous Close: $22.74
• Sector Valuation Confidence Level: High

Valuation method	Value, $	Upside, %
Artificial intelligence (AI)	41.16	81
Intrinsic value (DCF)	3558.54	15549
Graham-Dodd Method	13.10	-42
Graham Formula	47.86	110

Strategic Investment Analysis

Company Overview

Astrana Health, Inc. (NASDAQ: ASTH) is a physician-centric, technology-powered healthcare management company delivering value-based care in the U.S. The company operates through three segments: Care Partners, Care Delivery, and Care Enablement, leveraging its proprietary population health management platform to optimize patient outcomes and provider efficiency. Astrana Health’s integrated model supports primary care physicians, specialists, and hospitalists, serving patients covered by Medicare, Medicaid, HMOs, and private insurance. Formerly known as Apollo Medical Holdings, the company rebranded in 2024 to reflect its expanded focus on tech-enabled healthcare solutions. Headquartered in Alhambra, California, Astrana Health is positioned at the intersection of healthcare delivery and digital innovation, addressing the growing demand for cost-effective, coordinated care in an evolving value-based reimbursement landscape.

Investment Summary

Astrana Health presents a compelling investment opportunity due to its scalable, tech-driven healthcare model aligned with the industry shift toward value-based care. The company’s $2.03B revenue (FY 2024) and positive net income ($43.1M) demonstrate operational efficiency, though its modest EPS ($0.89) and leveraged balance sheet ($471.8M debt vs. $288.5M cash) warrant caution. With a beta of 1.0, ASTH mirrors market volatility, and its lack of dividends may deter income-focused investors. Growth potential lies in its proprietary platform and physician network, but regulatory risks in Medicare/Medicaid reimbursement and competition from larger peers could pressure margins.

Competitive Analysis

Astrana Health’s competitive advantage stems from its hybrid physician-technology model, which combines a robust provider network with data-driven care coordination tools. Unlike pure-play telehealth or hospital operators, ASTH’s integrated approach allows for risk-sharing with payers while maintaining provider alignment—a critical edge in value-based contracts. However, its mid-market scale limits bargaining power compared to giants like UnitedHealth (UNH). The proprietary platform differentiates ASTH from traditional physician groups, but it lacks the brand recognition of tech-first peers such as Teladoc (TDOC). Financially, ASTH’s 2.1% net margin trails industry leaders, reflecting its growth-stage reinvestment. Its focus on underserved markets (e.g., Medicaid populations) provides niche defensibility but exposes it to policy shifts. The 2024 rebrand signals strategic ambitions, yet execution risks persist in scaling technology adoption across its network.

Major Competitors

• UnitedHealth Group (UNH): UNH dominates with vertical integration (Optum + insurance) and $372B revenue (FY 2023). Its vast resources and data analytics capabilities dwarf ASTH’s, but bureaucratic complexity limits agility in local provider partnerships—a key ASTH strength.
• Teladoc Health (TDOC): TDOC leads in virtual care with $2.6B revenue (2023), but its lack of physical provider networks contrasts with ASTH’s hybrid model. Teladoc’s chronic care programs compete directly with ASTH’s enablement segment, though ASTH has deeper provider integration.
• Option Care Health (OPCH): OPCH specializes in home infusion therapy ($4.3B revenue, 2023), overlapping with ASTH’s care coordination. Its lower-tech, asset-heavy model differs from ASTH’s platform focus, but both target cost-effective alternate care sites.
• American Well Corporation (AMWL): AMWL’s telehealth infrastructure competes with ASTH’s enablement tools, but its reliance on health system clients (vs. ASTH’s direct provider network) creates divergent growth paths. AMWL’s $275M revenue (2023) trails ASTH’s scale.