Stock Analysis & Valuation Autodesk, Inc. (AUD.DE)

• Previous Close: €213.00
• Sector Valuation Confidence Level: Low

Valuation method	Value, €	Upside, %
Artificial intelligence (AI)	n/a	n/a
Intrinsic value (DCF)		n/a
Graham-Dodd Method	15.90	-93
Graham Formula	89.50	-58

Strategic Investment Analysis

Company Overview

Autodesk, Inc. (AUD.DE) is a global leader in 3D design, engineering, and entertainment software, serving industries such as architecture, engineering, construction, manufacturing, and media. Headquartered in San Rafael, California, Autodesk provides a comprehensive suite of software solutions, including AutoCAD, BIM 360, Fusion 360, and Maya, which empower professionals to design, simulate, and visualize complex projects. The company operates on a subscription-based model, ensuring recurring revenue and strong customer retention. Autodesk’s cloud-based platforms, such as BIM 360 and ShotGrid, enhance collaboration and efficiency for large-scale projects. With a market capitalization exceeding €61.9 billion, Autodesk is a dominant force in the CAD/CAM and BIM software markets, continuously innovating to meet the evolving needs of digital transformation across industries. Its strong brand recognition, extensive reseller network, and focus on sustainability and automation position it as a critical enabler for the future of design and construction.

Investment Summary

Autodesk presents a compelling investment case due to its leadership in high-growth markets like BIM, CAD, and digital manufacturing. The company’s transition to a subscription-based model has stabilized revenue streams, with FY revenue reaching €6.13 billion and net income of €1.11 billion. However, its high beta (1.43) suggests volatility, and the lack of dividends may deter income-focused investors. Autodesk’s strong operating cash flow (€1.6 billion) and solid liquidity (€1.6 billion in cash) provide flexibility for R&D and acquisitions. Risks include competition from lower-cost alternatives and macroeconomic pressures affecting construction and manufacturing sectors. Long-term growth hinges on adoption of cloud-based solutions and expansion in emerging markets.

Competitive Analysis

Autodesk’s competitive advantage lies in its industry-standard software (e.g., AutoCAD, Revit) and deep integration across the AEC (Architecture, Engineering, Construction) and manufacturing workflows. Its shift to cloud-based platforms like Fusion 360 and BIM 360 enhances stickiness and cross-selling opportunities. The company benefits from a large installed base and high switching costs due to proprietary file formats and workflow dependencies. However, it faces pressure from open-source alternatives (e.g., FreeCAD) and specialized competitors like Dassault Systèmes in high-end manufacturing. Autodesk’s focus on AI-driven design automation (e.g., generative design in Fusion 360) differentiates it, but rivals like PTC (with IoT integration) and Siemens (with industrial digital twins) pose threats in smart manufacturing. Pricing remains a concern, as smaller firms may opt for cheaper alternatives like SketchUp. Autodesk’s partnerships with hardware vendors (e.g., NVIDIA) and academia strengthen its ecosystem, but it must accelerate innovation to maintain dominance in a fragmented market.

Major Competitors

• Dassault Systèmes (DASTY): Dassault Systèmes is a key rival in CAD/CAM and PLM software, with its CATIA and SOLIDWORKS suites dominating aerospace and automotive sectors. It outperforms Autodesk in high-end simulation and systems engineering but lacks Autodesk’s stronghold in AEC. Dassault’s 3DEXPERIENCE platform is a cloud-based differentiator, though Autodesk’s broader mid-market reach gives it an edge in SMB adoption.
• Siemens Digital Industries Software (SIEGY): Siemens competes with Autodesk in industrial automation and digital twins, leveraging its Teamcenter PLM and NX CAD software. Its strength lies in factory automation and IoT integration, but it trails Autodesk in media/entertainment tools. Siemens’ vertical integration with hardware (e.g., PLCs) provides an advantage in manufacturing, though Autodesk’s Fusion 360 is more accessible to smaller firms.
• PTC Inc. (PTC): PTC’s Creo and Windchill compete with Autodesk in CAD and PLM, with a focus on IoT (ThingWorx) and AR (Vuforia). PTC’s strength in connected products appeals to industrial clients, but Autodesk’s broader AEC portfolio and brand recognition give it wider reach. PTC’s higher reliance on partnerships (e.g., Rockwell) contrasts with Autodesk’s direct sales dominance.
• Nano Dimension (NNDM): A niche player in additive manufacturing software, Nano Dimension’s DragonFly LDM competes with Autodesk’s Netfabb. It excels in 3D printing electronics but lacks Autodesk’s comprehensive design ecosystem. Autodesk’s scale and integration with traditional manufacturing processes make it a safer choice for most enterprises.
• Trimble Inc. (TRMB): Trimble rivals Autodesk in AEC software (e.g., SketchUp, Tekla) and construction management tools. It leads in geospatial and field solutions but lacks Autodesk’s depth in entertainment and manufacturing. Autodesk’s BIM 360 directly competes with Trimble Connect, though Trimble’s hardware (e.g., GPS systems) provides a hybrid advantage in construction tech.