Stock Analysis & Valuation Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG.SW)

• Previous Close: CHF1,711.00
• Sector Valuation Confidence Level: Moderate

Valuation method	Value, CHF	Upside, %
Artificial intelligence (AI)	n/a	n/a
Intrinsic value (DCF)		n/a
Graham-Dodd Method	308.70	-82
Graham Formula	3815.20	123

Strategic Investment Analysis

Company Overview

Booking Holdings Inc. (BKNG.SW) is a global leader in online travel and restaurant reservation services, operating a diverse portfolio of brands including Booking.com, Priceline, Agoda, KAYAK, and OpenTable. Headquartered in Norwalk, Connecticut, and listed on the Swiss Exchange (SIX), the company serves millions of travelers and diners worldwide. Booking.com specializes in online accommodation reservations, while Priceline and Agoda offer comprehensive travel booking services, including flights, rental cars, and activities. KAYAK provides a powerful price comparison tool for travel itineraries, and OpenTable facilitates online restaurant reservations. With a market capitalization exceeding CHF 81 billion, Booking Holdings leverages its extensive network and technological innovation to dominate the consumer cyclical sector, particularly in travel services. The company’s asset-light business model, strong cash flow generation (CHF 6.55 billion in operating cash flow in 2022), and global reach position it as a key player in the rapidly evolving digital travel ecosystem.

Investment Summary

Booking Holdings presents a compelling investment case due to its dominant market position, diversified brand portfolio, and strong financial performance. In 2022, the company reported CHF 17.09 billion in revenue and CHF 3.06 billion in net income, with diluted EPS of CHF 76.35. Its robust operating cash flow (CHF 6.55 billion) and substantial cash reserves (CHF 12.22 billion) provide financial flexibility for growth and innovation. However, risks include exposure to global travel demand fluctuations, intense competition from other online travel agencies (OTAs), and regulatory challenges in multiple jurisdictions. The company’s zero dividend policy may deter income-focused investors, but its focus on reinvestment and acquisitions aligns with long-term growth strategies. The stock’s beta of 0 suggests low correlation with broader market movements, potentially offering defensive characteristics in volatile markets.

Competitive Analysis

Booking Holdings maintains a competitive edge through its multi-brand strategy, which captures diverse segments of the travel and dining markets. Booking.com, its flagship brand, is the world’s leading OTA for accommodations, with unparalleled inventory and global reach. Agoda strengthens its presence in Asia-Pacific, while Priceline caters to value-conscious travelers. KAYAK’s meta-search capabilities drive traffic across platforms, and OpenTable’s dominance in restaurant reservations adds a complementary revenue stream. The company’s competitive advantages include its vast supplier network, advanced data analytics for personalized recommendations, and strong brand recognition. However, it faces stiff competition from Expedia Group, Airbnb, and Trip.com, each with unique strengths. Expedia rivals Booking.com in scale, Airbnb disrupts the accommodations space with alternative lodging, and Trip.com dominates the Chinese market. Booking’s asset-light model reduces capital intensity but limits control over inventory compared to vertically integrated competitors. Its ability to innovate—such as integrating AI for dynamic pricing and enhancing mobile platforms—will be critical to maintaining leadership in the increasingly crowded OTA landscape.

Major Competitors

• Expedia Group Inc. (EXPE): Expedia Group is Booking’s closest competitor, operating brands like Expedia, Vrbo, and Hotels.com. It matches Booking in scale but lags in international reach, particularly in Europe. Expedia’s strength lies in its bundled vacation packages and loyalty program, though its profitability trails Booking’s. Recent tech investments aim to close the gap in user experience.
• Airbnb Inc. (ABNB): Airbnb disrupts the accommodations market with its peer-to-peer lodging model, appealing to travelers seeking unique stays. Unlike Booking, it avoids traditional hotel inventory, reducing direct competition but also limiting business travel appeal. Airbnb’s asset-light approach is similar, but its narrower focus on accommodations (without flights or rental cars) creates differentiation.
• Trip.com Group Ltd. (TCOM): Trip.com is the leader in China’s OTA market, with strengths in domestic travel and outbound tourism. It outperforms Booking in Asia but has limited penetration in Europe and North America. Its Ctrip and Skyscanner brands mirror Booking’s multi-platform strategy, though geopolitical risks and regulatory hurdles in China pose challenges.
• TripAdvisor Inc. (TRIP): TripAdvisor competes indirectly via its review-driven platform and Viator (experiences) and TheFork (restaurants). Its metasearch model overlaps with KAYAK, but it lacks Booking’s direct booking capabilities. Weak monetization of its user base and declining ad revenue are key weaknesses compared to Booking’s integrated ecosystem.