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Stock Analysis & ValuationCarmila S.A. (CARM.PA)

Professional Stock Screener
Previous Close
16.36
Sector Valuation Confidence Level
Low
Valuation methodValue, Upside, %
Artificial intelligence (AI)51.76216
Intrinsic value (DCF)8.42-49
Graham-Dodd Method17.074
Graham Formula26.8664

Strategic Investment Analysis

Company Overview

Carmila S.A. is a leading retail-focused real estate investment trust (REIT) in Continental Europe, specializing in shopping centers adjacent to Carrefour stores across France, Spain, and Italy. With a portfolio of 215 shopping centers valued at €6.2 billion, Carmila focuses on enhancing local retail ecosystems by integrating proximity-based strategies, digital marketing, and sustainability initiatives. The company operates under the French SIIC regime, benefiting from tax-efficient structures, and is listed on Euronext Paris. Carmila’s assets are strategically positioned in high-traffic catchment areas, reinforcing its role as a key player in the European retail real estate sector. The company’s inclusion in FTSE EPRA/NAREIT and Euronext indices underscores its market relevance. By prioritizing tenant partnerships, operational efficiency, and ESG commitments, Carmila aims to drive long-term value for stakeholders while adapting to evolving consumer trends in retail real estate.

Investment Summary

Carmila presents a compelling investment case due to its strategic portfolio of prime retail assets, strong ties with Carrefour, and a focus on high-traffic locations. The company’s €1.25 dividend per share and solid operating cash flow (€296.3M in FY 2024) highlight its income-generating potential. However, risks include exposure to European retail market volatility, a high debt-to-equity ratio (€2.75B total debt), and sensitivity to e-commerce disruption. The beta of 1.539 suggests higher market correlation, which may appeal to investors seeking leveraged exposure to retail real estate recovery. Carmila’s SIIC status and inclusion in major indices enhance liquidity, but its reliance on Carrefour-anchored centers warrants monitoring of tenant diversification efforts.

Competitive Analysis

Carmila’s competitive advantage lies in its niche focus on hypermarket-anchored shopping centers, which benefit from Carrefour’s foot traffic and long-term leases. This model provides stable rental income and reduces vacancy risks compared to standalone retail properties. The company’s localized asset management approach—combining digital marketing, CSR initiatives, and tenant collaboration—differentiates it from generic retail REITs. However, Carmila faces stiff competition from larger pan-European REITs with diversified portfolios and greater scale. Its concentration in France (primary market) exposes it to regional economic fluctuations, whereas peers like Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield operate globally. Carmila’s smaller size limits development capital but allows agility in repositioning assets. The SIIC structure enhances after-tax returns, but high leverage (debt-to-market cap ~109%) could constrain growth during rising interest rate environments. Its competitive positioning hinges on sustaining occupancy rates (~95% pre-pandemic) and adapting to hybrid retail formats.

Major Competitors

  • Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield (URW.AS): URW dominates the premium European retail sector with iconic assets like Westfield malls. Its scale and international presence (Europe/U.S.) provide diversification but expose it to higher leverage and pandemic-related vulnerabilities. Unlike Carmila’s hypermarket focus, URW targets luxury and flagship tenants, which may face steeper e-commerce pressures.
  • Klépierre (KLO.VI): Klépierre is a pan-European retail REIT with a €20B+ portfolio, emphasizing urban shopping centers. Its geographic diversification (12 countries) mitigates country-specific risks but lacks Carmila’s hypermarket synergy. Klépierre’s stronger balance sheet (lower LTV) offers resilience, but its larger asset base limits operational flexibility.
  • Cofinimmo (COFF.PA): Cofinimmo focuses on healthcare and office properties, reducing direct retail competition. However, its Belgian-centric portfolio contrasts with Carmila’s Southern European retail exposure. Cofinimmo’s lower beta (0.85) appeals to defensive investors, but its growth prospects are tied to niche sectors.
  • Intermediate Capital Group (ICG.L): ICG is an alternative asset manager with retail real estate investments, but its broader private equity focus dilutes comparability. Carmila’s pure-play REIT structure offers clearer exposure to retail property cash flows, whereas ICG’s diversified strategies cater to institutional investors seeking blended returns.
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