| Valuation method | Value, € | Upside, % |
|---|---|---|
| Artificial intelligence (AI) | 51.76 | 216 |
| Intrinsic value (DCF) | 8.42 | -49 |
| Graham-Dodd Method | 17.07 | 4 |
| Graham Formula | 26.86 | 64 |
Carmila S.A. is a leading retail-focused real estate investment trust (REIT) in Continental Europe, specializing in shopping centers adjacent to Carrefour stores across France, Spain, and Italy. With a portfolio of 215 shopping centers valued at €6.2 billion, Carmila focuses on enhancing local retail ecosystems by integrating proximity-based strategies, digital marketing, and sustainability initiatives. The company operates under the French SIIC regime, benefiting from tax-efficient structures, and is listed on Euronext Paris. Carmila’s assets are strategically positioned in high-traffic catchment areas, reinforcing its role as a key player in the European retail real estate sector. The company’s inclusion in FTSE EPRA/NAREIT and Euronext indices underscores its market relevance. By prioritizing tenant partnerships, operational efficiency, and ESG commitments, Carmila aims to drive long-term value for stakeholders while adapting to evolving consumer trends in retail real estate.
Carmila presents a compelling investment case due to its strategic portfolio of prime retail assets, strong ties with Carrefour, and a focus on high-traffic locations. The company’s €1.25 dividend per share and solid operating cash flow (€296.3M in FY 2024) highlight its income-generating potential. However, risks include exposure to European retail market volatility, a high debt-to-equity ratio (€2.75B total debt), and sensitivity to e-commerce disruption. The beta of 1.539 suggests higher market correlation, which may appeal to investors seeking leveraged exposure to retail real estate recovery. Carmila’s SIIC status and inclusion in major indices enhance liquidity, but its reliance on Carrefour-anchored centers warrants monitoring of tenant diversification efforts.
Carmila’s competitive advantage lies in its niche focus on hypermarket-anchored shopping centers, which benefit from Carrefour’s foot traffic and long-term leases. This model provides stable rental income and reduces vacancy risks compared to standalone retail properties. The company’s localized asset management approach—combining digital marketing, CSR initiatives, and tenant collaboration—differentiates it from generic retail REITs. However, Carmila faces stiff competition from larger pan-European REITs with diversified portfolios and greater scale. Its concentration in France (primary market) exposes it to regional economic fluctuations, whereas peers like Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield operate globally. Carmila’s smaller size limits development capital but allows agility in repositioning assets. The SIIC structure enhances after-tax returns, but high leverage (debt-to-market cap ~109%) could constrain growth during rising interest rate environments. Its competitive positioning hinges on sustaining occupancy rates (~95% pre-pandemic) and adapting to hybrid retail formats.