| Valuation method | Value, $ | Upside, % |
|---|---|---|
| Artificial intelligence (AI) | 105.03 | 60 |
| Intrinsic value (DCF) | 0.00 | -100 |
| Graham-Dodd Method | n/a | |
| Graham Formula | 2289.69 | 3389 |
Cidara Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ: CDTX) is a clinical-stage biotechnology company pioneering the development of long-acting anti-infectives to combat serious fungal and viral infections. Headquartered in San Diego, California, Cidara focuses on rezafungin acetate, a next-generation echinocandin antifungal targeting invasive candidiasis and candidemia—conditions with high mortality rates. The company’s innovative Cloudbreak platform leverages antibody-drug conjugate (ADC) technology to create novel therapies for influenza, RSV, HIV, and COVID-19. Operating in the high-growth $50B+ global anti-infectives market, Cidara differentiates itself through extended-duration dosing and potential first-line treatment positioning for rezafungin. With strategic partnerships, including a $104M deal with Melinta Therapeutics for rezafungin’s U.S. commercialization, Cidara is positioned to address critical unmet needs in infectious disease and oncology. The company’s pipeline and platform technology make it a compelling player in the fight against drug-resistant pathogens.
Cidara Therapeutics presents a high-risk, high-reward opportunity with its late-stage antifungal rezafungin (FDA PDUFA date: March 22, 2024) and innovative Cloudbreak platform. Investment appeal lies in rezafungin’s potential $300M+ peak sales as the first once-weekly echinocandin, with Melinta Therapeutics covering U.S. commercialization costs. However, the company’s $169.8M net loss (FY2023) and reliance on pipeline success warrant caution. Near-term catalysts include rezafungin’s FDA decision and Cloudbreak’s preclinical data readouts. With $189.8M cash (Q3 2023) providing runway into 2025, dilution risk appears mitigated short-term. The stock’s 0.86 beta suggests lower volatility than biotech peers, but binary regulatory events dominate the risk profile.
Cidara competes in the antifungal market dominated by Pfizer’s eravaconazole ($1.1B sales) and Merck’s caspofungin. Rezafungin’s key differentiator is its once-weekly dosing versus daily IV competitors, potentially reducing hospital stays and costs. The Cloudbreak platform faces competition from Vir Biotechnology’s (VIR) monoclonal antibodies and AstraZeneca’s (AZN) long-acting RSV therapies. Cidara’s strategic advantage lies in its dual focus on fungal and viral infections—a rare combination that diversifies risk. The company’s partnership with Janssen (JNJ) for Cloudbreak-derived influenza conjugates validates its technology but also exposes it to Big Pharma’s superior resources. In antifungals, rezafungin could capture 15-20% market share as a first-line therapy if approved, though pricing pressure from generics (e.g., caspofungin) looms. The lack of oral formulation limits outpatient use versus Pfizer’s Cresemba. Cidara’s $31M enterprise value (market cap minus cash) suggests undervaluation relative to rezafungin’s commercial potential, but execution risk remains high given its thin commercialization infrastructure.