| Valuation method | Value, $ | Upside, % |
|---|---|---|
| Artificial intelligence (AI) | 41.52 | 139 |
| Intrinsic value (DCF) | 7.30 | -58 |
| Graham-Dodd Method | 10.89 | -37 |
| Graham Formula | 249.06 | 1335 |
The Carlyle Group Inc. 4.625% Subordinated Notes due 2061 (NASDAQ: CGABL) represent a long-term debt instrument issued by The Carlyle Group, a leading global investment firm specializing in private equity, credit, and investment solutions. Operating in the Financial Services sector, Carlyle manages assets across multiple strategies, including corporate private equity, real assets, and global credit. The company serves institutional and individual investors, leveraging its deep industry expertise and global network to generate value. With a market capitalization of approximately $5.94 billion and a beta of 0.83, CGABL offers investors exposure to Carlyle’s diversified financial services platform while providing a fixed-income component. The notes are subordinated, reflecting their lower priority in Carlyle’s capital structure but offering an attractive yield in the current interest rate environment. Carlyle’s strong revenue base ($5.43B in FY 2023) and net income ($1.02B) underscore its financial stability, making CGABL a noteworthy consideration for fixed-income investors seeking exposure to alternative asset management.
CGABL presents an opportunity for fixed-income investors seeking exposure to The Carlyle Group’s creditworthiness and diversified financial services platform. The subordinated notes offer a 4.625% yield, which may be attractive in a rising-rate environment, though investors should note the subordinated nature of the debt, implying higher risk in case of financial distress. Carlyle’s strong revenue and net income growth, coupled with $1.27B in cash reserves, suggest solid liquidity. However, the lack of total debt disclosure warrants caution, and the beta of 0.83 indicates moderate market correlation. The dividend payout ($1.156 per share) and stable operating cash flow ($1.09B) support the firm’s ability to service debt, but investors should weigh the long maturity (2061) against interest rate and credit risks.
The Carlyle Group competes in the global alternative asset management industry, where scale, investment performance, and fundraising capabilities are critical. Carlyle’s competitive advantage lies in its diversified investment strategies (private equity, credit, real assets) and a strong institutional investor base. Unlike pure-play credit service providers, Carlyle benefits from cross-platform synergies, allowing it to deploy capital flexibly across market cycles. However, as CGABL is a debt instrument, its attractiveness depends on Carlyle’s overall credit profile rather than direct business competition. The firm’s 0.83 beta suggests lower volatility than peers, possibly due to its diversified revenue streams. Competitors in private credit (e.g., Blackstone, KKR) may offer similar debt securities, but Carlyle’s mid-market focus and strong historical returns in private equity bolster its creditworthiness. The lack of disclosed total debt complicates leverage comparisons, but Carlyle’s $1.27B cash position and $1.09B operating cash flow indicate robust liquidity to meet obligations. Investors should monitor Carlyle’s ability to maintain fundraising momentum and investment performance, as these drive long-term debt sustainability.