US · DLTR
Dollar Tree, Inc.
- Sector
- Consumer Defensive · Discount Stores
- Headquarters
- Chesapeake, VA 23320
- Website
- dollartree.com
Price · as of 2025-02-01
$94.67
Market cap 25.8B
Valuation summary
Four models, one snapshot. Upside is target ÷ current − 1.
| Valuation method | Value, $ | Upside, % |
|---|---|---|
| Artificial Intelligence(AI) | $90.30 | -4.62% |
| Intrinsic Value(DCF) | $28.84 | -69.54% |
| Graham-Dodd Method(GD) | — | — |
| Graham Formula(GF) | — | — |
Valuation history
Annual price (USD per share) overlaid with each model's fair value. Y-axis is log scale.
| Year | Price | AI | DCF | Graham-Dodd | Graham Formula |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | $27.84 | $53.72 | $65.94 | $12.87 | $31.25 |
| 2012 | $48.08 | $67.02 | $126.52 | $15.02 | $41.35 |
| 2013 | $47.82 | $75.18 | $122.07 | $20.02 | $51.93 |
| 2014 | $50.74 | $77.03 | $57.85 | $18.27 | $37.95 |
| 2015 | $82.87 | $102.54 | $46.88 | $23.54 | $54.86 |
| 2016 | $79.66 | $67.30 | $4,864.47 | $3.58 | $107.68 |
| 2017 | $77.61 | $85.79 | $10,285.77 | $20.56 | $153.12 |
| 2018 | $97.13 | $106.32 | $6,025.44 | $45.31 | $110.10 |
| 2019 | $104.45 | $63.89 | $421.68 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| 2020 | $77.56 | $75.11 | $0.00 | $35.44 | $39.69 |
| 2021 | $117.55 | $107.83 | $0.00 | $50.80 | $89.59 |
| 2022 | $162.92 | $117.88 | $0.00 | $54.29 | $65.21 |
| 2023 | $149.04 | $106.60 | $0.00 | $66.51 | $0.00 |
| 2024 | $125.19 | $92.43 | $0.00 | $8.65 | $0.00 |
| 2025 | $72.11 | $90.30 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
AI valuation
Our deep-learning model estimates Dollar Tree, Inc.'s (DLTR) per-share fair value from quarterly fundamentals, sector trend, and historical valuation patterns.
- AI fair value
- $90.30
- Current price
- $94.67
- AI upside
- -4.62%
Methodology and confidence bands appear in the dedicated valuation theory section. The AI score is an estimate, not a recommendation.
Intrinsic value (DCF)
Open DCF calculatorThree textbook valuation models, recomputed daily from the latest financial statements. The DCF uses our Chepakovich model. Graham-Dodd and Graham Formula are conservative reference points.
DCF
$28.84
-69.54% upside
Graham-Dodd
—
— upside
Graham Formula
—
— upside
Peer comparison
Same-industry comparables, ranked by market cap.
| Basic Info | Model Valuation | Core Valuation | Profitability | Leverage & Liquidity | Growth | Cash Flow | Dividends | Enterprise Value | Risk | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ticker | Company Name | Price | Market Cap | AI Upside | DCF Upside | GD Upside | GF Upside | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | PEG | P/TBV | Gross Margin | Operating Margin | Net Margin | ROE | ROIC | ROA | Debt/Equity | Interest Coverage | Current Ratio | Quick Ratio | Net Debt/EBITDA | EPS Growth | Sales Growth | FCF Growth | FCF Yield | Op Cash Flow Ratio | Cash ROIC | Dividend Yield | Dividend Payout | Shareholder Yield | EV/EBIT | EV/FCF | EV/Sales | Altman Z-Score |
| DLTR | Dollar Tree, Inc. | $94.67 | 25.8B | -5% | -70% | — | — | 14.92 | 3.91 | 0.88 | 10.97 | 7.15 | 4.37 | 35.81% | 8.32% | -17.24% | 18.47% | 8.88% | 5.13% | 1.97 | 13.60 | 1.06 | 0.15 | 3.26 | 20879.00% | 475.00% | 17095.00% | 10.05% | 0.33 | 12.60% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 4.94% | 15.14 | 14.16 | 1.26 | 2.17 |
| BG | Bunge Global S.A. | $120.65 | 23.33B | -44% | +20,538% | -45% | +59% | 24.45 | 1.15 | 0.28 | 14.45 | — | 1.44 | 4.85% | 1.84% | 1.16% | 6.00% | 4.18% | 2.36% | 0.98 | 2.06 | 1.61 | 0.34 | 6.42 | -3855.00% | 3243.00% | -27615.00% | -4.61% | 0.05 | -3.99% | 2.29% | 56.00% | 5.04% | 27.49 | -38.60 | 0.51 | 2.37 |
| BJ | BJ's Wholesale Club Holdi… | $98.79 | 13.02B | -14% | -52% | -73% | -57% | 29.02 | 8.39 | 0.76 | 17.75 | 938.33 | 21.03 | 18.36% | 3.77% | 2.61% | 32.33% | 12.62% | 7.78% | 1.54 | 15.29 | 0.74 | 0.12 | 2.73 | 309.00% | 267.00% | 2426.00% | 2.02% | 0.36 | 6.90% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 2.27% | 23.73 | 58.57 | 0.89 | 5.27 |
| CHD | Church & Dwight Co., Inc. | $104.86 | 25.18B | -24% | -57% | -97% | -72% | 34.24 | 6.30 | 4.07 | 20.80 | 124.85 | -11.81 | 44.73% | 17.37% | 11.88% | 17.62% | 14.31% | 8.28% | 0.55 | 11.32 | 1.07 | 0.67 | 1.38 | 2743.00% | 157.00% | 1194.00% | 4.33% | 0.81 | 18.84% | 1.14% | 39.00% | 4.71% | 25.08 | 24.73 | 4.36 | 5.25 |
| DG | Dollar General Corporatio… | $156.26 | 34.4B | -44% | -78% | -97% | -58% | 17.02 | 2.58 | 0.47 | 13.29 | — | 10.21 | 29.59% | 4.22% | 2.77% | 15.89% | 5.55% | 3.63% | 2.36 | 6.25 | 1.19 | 0.15 | 6.15 | -3232.00% | 496.00% | 14382.00% | 8.80% | 0.44 | 6.99% | 2.71% | 46.10% | 8.05% | 20.82 | 21.16 | 0.88 | 2.17 |
| FMX | Fomento Económico Mexican… | $112.32 | 22.63B | 0% | -58% | -45% | -93% | 40.03 | 2.36 | 0.92 | 8.88 | — | 4.23 | 40.62% | 8.80% | 2.31% | 6.20% | 10.93% | 2.36% | 0.78 | — | 1.35 | 0.84 | 1.46 | -9303.00% | -552.00% | -10000.00% | 0.00% | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 12.27 | — | 1.08 | 2.47 |
| KOF | Coca-Cola FEMSA, S.A.B. d… | $111.15 | 23.35B | -14% | -50% | -38% | -32% | 17.76 | 2.90 | 1.45 | 8.66 | 4014.23 | 9.66 | 45.65% | 14.72% | 8.17% | 16.47% | 14.62% | 7.66% | 0.57 | — | 1.12 | 0.75 | 0.99 | 44.00% | 427.00% | -10000.00% | 0.00% | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 11.14 | — | 1.64 | 2.99 |
| MKC | McCormick & Company, Inco… | $71.04 | 19.07B | -20% | -59% | — | -59% | 22.94 | 3.16 | 2.65 | 16.42 | 6698.54 | -6.34 | 37.90% | 15.96% | 11.54% | 14.32% | 9.09% | 6.01% | 0.70 | 5.57 | 0.70 | 0.24 | 2.91 | 34.00% | 173.00% | 1444.00% | 4.09% | 0.31 | 7.69% | 2.67% | 61.20% | 5.19% | 20.16 | 29.73 | 3.22 | 2.57 |
| STZ | Constellation Brands, Inc… | $157.86 | 27.48B | +3% | -39% | — | — | -1087.01 | 4.91 | 3.31 | 58.59 | — | -43.50 | 50.96% | 35.45% | -0.80% | -0.37% | 7.05% | -0.13% | 1.76 | 8.80 | 0.92 | 0.26 | 15.39 | -10479.00% | 247.00% | 2827.00% | 5.73% | 0.78 | 9.44% | 2.16% | -2353.10% | 6.55% | 12.67 | 23.66 | 4.49 | 3.22 |
| TSN | Tyson Foods, Inc. | $64.99 | 23.15B | -64% | -66% | -98% | -79% | 38.42 | 1.08 | 0.36 | 10.50 | — | 6.51 | 6.54% | 2.65% | 0.87% | 2.78% | 3.64% | 1.37% | 0.49 | 3.21 | 1.55 | 0.59 | 2.95 | -3956.00% | 212.00% | -1927.00% | 6.04% | 0.34 | 4.51% | 3.58% | 137.50% | 6.99% | 18.79 | 23.01 | 0.50 | 3.08 |
About Dollar Tree, Inc.
Dollar Tree, Inc. operates discount variety retail stores. It operates in two segments, Dollar Tree and Family Dollar. The Dollar Tree segment offers merchandise at the fixed price of $ 1.25. It provides consumable merchandise, including candy and food, and health and personal care, as well as everyday consumables, such as household paper and chemicals, and frozen and refrigerated food; variety merchandise comprising toys, durable housewares, gifts, stationery, party goods, greeting cards, softlines, arts and crafts supplies, and other items; and seasonal goods that include Christmas, Easter, Halloween, and Valentine's Day merchandise. As of January 29, 2022, this segment operated 8,061 stores under the Dollar Tree and Dollar Tree Canada brands, as well as 15 distribution centers in the United States and 2 distribution centers in Canada. The Family Dollar segment operates general merchandise retail discount stores that offer consumable merchandise, which comprise food and beverages, tobacco, health and personal care, household chemicals, paper products, hardware and automotive supplies, diapers, batteries, and pet food and supplies; and home products, including housewares, home décor, and giftware, as well as domestics, such as comforters, sheets, and towels. It also provides apparel and accessories merchandise comprising clothing, fashion accessories, and shoes; and seasonal and electronics merchandise that include Christmas, Easter, Halloween, and Valentine's Day merchandise, as well as personal electronics, which comprise pre-paid cellular phones and services, stationery and school supplies, and toys. As of January 29, 2022, this segment operated 8,016 stores under the Family Dollar brand; and 11 distribution centers. The company was founded in 1986 and is based in Chesapeake, Virginia.
- CEO
- Michael C. Creedon Jr.
- Employees
- 64.43K
- Beta
- 0.74
Disclaimer: Information on this page is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Upside computed as ($28.84 ÷ $94.67) − 1 = -69.54% (DCF, example).