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Stock Analysis & ValuationFarmers National Banc Corp. (FMNB)

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$12.98
Sector Valuation Confidence Level
High
Valuation methodValue, $Upside, %
Artificial intelligence (AI)22.0770
Intrinsic value (DCF)18.5543
Graham-Dodd Method2.34-82
Graham Formula16.6028

Strategic Investment Analysis

Company Overview

Farmers National Banc Corp. (NASDAQ: FMNB) is a financial holding company providing a comprehensive suite of banking, trust, retirement consulting, insurance, and financial management services. Founded in 1887 and headquartered in Canfield, Ohio, the company operates through 47 locations in northeastern Ohio and one in southwestern Pennsylvania. FMNB offers commercial and retail banking solutions, including deposit accounts, loans (commercial, mortgage, installment, and home equity), credit cards, and digital banking services. Additionally, it provides trust and estate administration, retirement planning, and insurance products. Serving a regional customer base, FMNB emphasizes community-focused financial solutions while maintaining a diversified revenue stream through its multi-line financial services model. With a market cap of approximately $490 million, the company plays a significant role in the regional banking sector, combining traditional banking with wealth management and insurance services.

Investment Summary

Farmers National Banc Corp. presents a stable investment opportunity within the regional banking sector, supported by its diversified financial services and strong regional presence. The company’s consistent profitability (net income of $45.9M in the latest period) and low beta (0.823) suggest resilience to market volatility. However, its reliance on regional economic conditions and modest market cap may limit growth scalability compared to larger peers. The dividend yield (~1.4% based on a $0.68 annual payout) adds income appeal, but investors should monitor its debt levels ($391M total debt) and interest rate sensitivity. FMNB’s niche in trust/retirement services could differentiate it, but competition from larger banks and fintechs poses risks.

Competitive Analysis

Farmers National Banc Corp. competes in the crowded regional banking space by leveraging its community-centric approach and diversified service offerings. Its competitive advantages include deep local market knowledge, a multi-line revenue model (banking, trust, insurance), and a long-standing reputation in Ohio and Pennsylvania. However, its small scale relative to national banks limits cost efficiencies and technological investments. FMNB’s trust and retirement services provide higher-margin revenue streams, but these segments face competition from specialized wealth managers. The company’s loan portfolio is concentrated in regional commercial and real estate markets, exposing it to localized economic downturns. While its digital banking capabilities are adequate, they lag behind larger peers with superior tech infrastructure. FMNB’s conservative risk profile (evidenced by low beta) appeals to stability-seeking investors, but its growth prospects depend on organic expansion and potential M&A in its core markets.

Major Competitors

  • Hilltop Holdings Inc. (HTH): Hilltop operates banking, mortgage origination, and wealth management services, with a broader geographic footprint than FMNB. Its diversified model (including securities brokerage) provides revenue stability but exposes it to mortgage market cyclicality. Hilltop’s larger scale offers cost advantages but lacks FMNB’s hyper-local focus.
  • Seacoast Banking Corporation of Florida (SBCF): A similarly sized regional bank, Seacoast excels in digital banking innovation, outpacing FMNB’s tech offerings. However, its Florida-centric operations face higher climate risk and competition from national banks, whereas FMNB benefits from a more stable Midwest market.
  • First Financial Bancorp (FFBC): First Financial serves overlapping Midwest markets with stronger commercial lending capabilities. Its larger asset base ($17B vs. FMNB’s ~$2B) provides lending capacity advantages, but FMNB’s trust/insurance services offer better fee-income diversification.
  • WSFS Financial Corporation (WSFS): WSFS combines retail banking with wealth management, similar to FMNB, but operates in higher-growth Mid-Atlantic markets. Its superior efficiency ratio (sub-50%) pressures FMNB to improve cost management, though WSFS has higher exposure to competitive urban markets.
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