Stock Analysis & Valuation TotalEnergies SE (FP.SW)

• Previous Close: CHF55.21
• Sector Valuation Confidence Level: Low

Valuation method	Value, CHF	Upside, %
Artificial intelligence (AI)	n/a	n/a
Intrinsic value (DCF)		n/a
Graham-Dodd Method	33.00	-40
Graham Formula		n/a

Strategic Investment Analysis

Company Overview

TotalEnergies SE (FP.SW) is a leading global integrated oil and gas company headquartered in Courbevoie, France. Operating across four key segments—Integrated Gas, Renewables & Power; Exploration & Production; Refining & Chemicals; and Marketing & Services—TotalEnergies is strategically positioned in the energy transition. The company is actively expanding its renewable energy portfolio, including wind, solar, hydroelectric, and biogas, while maintaining a strong presence in traditional oil and gas operations. With approximately 16,000 service stations and 25,000 EV charge points worldwide, TotalEnergies is diversifying its revenue streams to align with the shift toward cleaner energy. The company’s partnerships with PureCycle Technologies, Plastic Energy, and others highlight its commitment to sustainability and innovation. TotalEnergies reported CHF 218.9 billion in revenue for FY 2023, demonstrating resilience in a volatile energy market. As a key player in the Oil & Gas Integrated sector, TotalEnergies is balancing legacy hydrocarbon operations with investments in low-carbon solutions, making it a critical name in the evolving energy landscape.

Investment Summary

TotalEnergies presents a compelling investment case due to its diversified energy portfolio, strong cash flow generation (CHF 40.7 billion operating cash flow in FY 2023), and commitment to both traditional and renewable energy markets. The company’s net income of CHF 21.4 billion and a diluted EPS of CHF 8.79 reflect robust profitability. However, risks include exposure to volatile oil prices (beta of 0.753) and the capital-intensive nature of transitioning to renewables (CHF -17.7 billion in capital expenditures). The dividend yield, supported by a CHF 2.22 per share payout, adds appeal for income-focused investors. Long-term growth hinges on successful execution of its renewable energy strategy while maintaining profitability in hydrocarbons.

Competitive Analysis

TotalEnergies competes in the global integrated energy market by leveraging its diversified operations and strategic investments in renewables. Its competitive advantage lies in its balanced approach—maintaining strong cash flows from oil and gas while expanding into low-carbon energy. The company’s Integrated Gas segment, including LNG and renewables, provides stability against oil price volatility. TotalEnergies’ refining and chemicals division benefits from vertical integration, while its Marketing & Services segment ensures downstream resilience. Compared to peers, TotalEnergies has been more aggressive in renewable investments, such as EV charging infrastructure and biofuels, positioning it ahead of slower-moving competitors. However, its European base exposes it to stricter regulatory environments than some rivals. The company’s partnerships in circular plastics and carbon capture differentiate it in sustainability efforts, but execution risks remain as it navigates the energy transition.

Major Competitors

• Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM): ExxonMobil (XOM) is a US-based energy giant with a strong focus on hydrocarbons and slower renewable adoption compared to TotalEnergies. Its upstream dominance and refining scale provide cost advantages, but its lag in energy transition investments may pose long-term risks. Exxon’s recent acquisitions in low-carbon solutions signal a strategic shift, though it remains more oil-weighted than TotalEnergies.
• Shell plc (SHEL): Shell (SHEL) is a key European competitor with a similar dual-strategy in oil/gas and renewables. Shell leads in LNG trading and has ambitious EV charging and hydrogen plans, but its recent pullback from renewable targets has drawn investor skepticism. TotalEnergies’ more consistent renewable investments may give it an edge in long-term positioning.
• BP plc (BP): BP (BP) is aggressively pivoting to renewables but faces execution risks and shareholder pressure over profitability. Its offshore wind and bioenergy investments compete with TotalEnergies’, but BP’s higher debt levels and volatile earnings make it a riskier bet. TotalEnergies’ more balanced approach offers greater stability.
• Chevron Corporation (CVX): Chevron (CVX) emphasizes shale and traditional energy, with less renewable exposure than TotalEnergies. Its strong balance sheet and Permian Basin dominance are strengths, but its slower energy transition could lag in a decarbonizing world. Chevron’s recent Hess acquisition underscores its oil focus, contrasting with TotalEnergies’ diversification.
• Equinor ASA (EQNR): Equinor (EQNR) is a leader in offshore wind and carbon capture, aligning with European decarbonization goals. Its state-backed model ensures stability, but TotalEnergies’ broader global footprint and refining operations provide more diversified revenue streams. Equinor’s renewables growth is impressive but relies heavily on policy support.