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Stock Analysis & ValuationGenius Sports Limited (GENI)

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$8.70
Sector Valuation Confidence Level
High
Valuation methodValue, $Upside, %
Artificial intelligence (AI)27.96221
Intrinsic value (DCF)24.67184
Graham-Dodd Methodn/a
Graham Formulan/a

Strategic Investment Analysis

Company Overview

Genius Sports Limited (NYSE: GENI) is a leading technology provider for the sports, sports betting, and sports media industries. Headquartered in London, the company specializes in live data collection, integrity monitoring, and streaming solutions that empower sports leagues, betting operators, and media publishers. Its proprietary technology infrastructure enables real-time data integration, automated video production, and AI-driven betting integrity services. Genius Sports operates in the high-growth sports betting ecosystem, partnering with major leagues like the NFL, NBA, and FIFA to deliver official data feeds and digital engagement tools. As sports betting legalization expands globally, Genius Sports is well-positioned to capitalize on the increasing demand for reliable, real-time sports data and streaming services. The company’s diversified revenue streams—spanning data licensing, integrity services, and fan engagement solutions—reinforce its role as a critical enabler of the digital sports economy.

Investment Summary

Genius Sports presents a high-risk, high-reward investment opportunity tied to the global expansion of legalized sports betting and digital sports consumption. The company’s partnerships with major sports leagues provide a competitive moat, but its negative net income (-$63M in latest reporting) and high beta (1.97) reflect volatility and execution risks. Strengths include strong revenue growth (+38% YoY implied by market cap/revenue multiples) and positive operating cash flow ($81.9M), suggesting scalability. However, competition from legacy players and regulatory hurdles in new markets could pressure margins. Investors should weigh its first-mover advantage in official sports data against its unprofitability and exposure to cyclical betting markets.

Competitive Analysis

Genius Sports differentiates itself through exclusive league partnerships (e.g., NFL’s official data provider) and vertically integrated solutions combining data, streaming, and integrity services. Its proprietary computer vision and AI-driven betting monitoring tools create switching costs for clients. However, the company faces intense competition in commoditized data segments from rivals like Sportradar. While Genius’ focus on official data (vs. unofficial scraped data) commands premium pricing, it relies heavily on league renewals. The 2021 acquisition of Second Spectrum bolstered its AI capabilities but integration risks remain. Financially, Genius lags behind profitable competitors in free cash flow generation due to R&D spend (14% of revenue), though its capital-light model (low $11.4M capex) provides flexibility. Geographic diversification (50% revenue outside U.S.) mitigates regulatory risks but exposes it to currency fluctuations.

Major Competitors

  • Sportradar Group AG (SRAD): Sportradar (NASDAQ: SRAD) is Genius Sports’ closest competitor, offering similar sports data and integrity services but with stronger profitability (18% EBITDA margin vs. GENI’s negative margins). Its UEFA and NBA deals rival Genius’ NFL partnership. However, Sportradar relies more on non-exclusive data relationships, making Genius’ official data strategy a differentiator. Sportradar’s larger scale ($2.5B market cap) provides better pricing power.
  • DraftKings Inc. (DKNG): DraftKings (NASDAQ: DKNG) competes indirectly as a betting operator that could develop in-house data capabilities. Its $20B market cap and direct consumer reach pose a threat, but Genius benefits from supplying data to DKNG and other operators. DraftKings’ heavy losses (-$1.5B net income) contrast with Genius’ asset-light model.
  • Flutter Entertainment PLC (PDYPY): Flutter (OTC: PDYPY), owner of FanDuel, represents both a customer and potential competitor. Its $30B valuation and ownership of sportsbook brands give it leverage in data pricing negotiations. However, Flutter lacks Genius’ league partnerships and focuses on operator margins rather than B2B data services.
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