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Stock Analysis & ValuationLockheed Martin Corporation (LMT.SW)

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CHF463.49
Sector Valuation Confidence Level
Moderate
Valuation methodValue, CHFUpside, %
Artificial intelligence (AI)n/an/a
Intrinsic value (DCF)n/a
Graham-Dodd Methodn/a
Graham Formula232.40-50

Strategic Investment Analysis

Company Overview

Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT.SW) is a global leader in aerospace, defense, and security solutions, headquartered in Bethesda, Maryland, USA. Listed on the Swiss Exchange (SIX), the company operates through four key segments: Aeronautics, Missiles and Fire Control, Rotary and Mission Systems, and Space. Lockheed Martin specializes in advanced technology systems, including combat aircraft (such as the F-35), missile defense systems, military helicopters, satellites, and cybersecurity solutions. With a strong focus on U.S. government contracts and foreign military sales, the company plays a pivotal role in national security and global defense infrastructure. Founded in 1912, Lockheed Martin has established itself as a cornerstone of the aerospace and defense industry, leveraging innovation and long-term government partnerships to maintain its market dominance. The company’s diversified portfolio ensures resilience amid geopolitical uncertainties, making it a critical player in the Industrials sector.

Investment Summary

Lockheed Martin presents a stable investment opportunity due to its entrenched position in defense contracting, consistent government funding, and strong cash flow generation. With a market cap of $98.38B and a beta of 0.47, the stock exhibits lower volatility compared to broader markets, appealing to risk-averse investors. The company reported $67.57B in revenue and $6.92B in net income for FY 2023, supported by robust demand for defense systems amid rising global tensions. However, reliance on U.S. government contracts (~70% of revenue) introduces budgetary and political risks. Dividend investors may find the $11.00 annual dividend per share attractive, though high capital expenditures ($1.69B) and debt ($17.46B) warrant monitoring. Long-term growth hinges on next-gen defense programs (e.g., hypersonic weapons, space systems) and international expansion.

Competitive Analysis

Lockheed Martin’s competitive advantage stems from its technological leadership, entrenched relationships with the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD), and scale in high-barrier-to-entry markets. The F-35 program, representing ~27% of revenue, solidifies its dominance in tactical aircraft, while its space segment (e.g., satellites, missile defense) benefits from increasing defense budgets. Competitors face challenges matching Lockheed’s integration capabilities and R&D spending ($2.5B annually). However, the company’s reliance on cost-plus contracts exposes it to margin pressures and delays. Its vertical integration (e.g., Sikorsky helicopters, missile systems) provides supply chain resilience but limits agility compared to leaner rivals. While international sales (30% of revenue) diversify risk, geopolitical restrictions (e.g., ITAR regulations) constrain growth in non-allied markets. Emerging threats include disruptive entrants in autonomous systems (e.g., drones) and SpaceX’s cost-competitive space launch solutions.

Major Competitors

  • Boeing (BA): Boeing is Lockheed’s primary rival in defense aviation (e.g., F/A-18, P-8 Poseidon) and space (SLS rocket). Strengths include commercial aerospace diversification (737, 787 programs), but its defense segment suffers from execution risks (KC-46 delays, Starliner setbacks). Unlike Lockheed, Boeing faces significant commercial sector volatility.
  • Raytheon Technologies (RTX): Raytheon excels in missiles (Patriot, Tomahawk) and radar systems, competing directly with Lockheed’s Missiles and Fire Control segment. Its Pratt & Whitney division adds propulsion diversification. However, post-merger integration risks and reliance on legacy platforms (e.g., F-135 engine) are weaknesses versus Lockheed’s next-gen focus.
  • Northrop Grumman (NOC): Northrop is a leader in stealth technology (B-21 bomber) and space systems (James Webb Telescope), overlapping with Lockheed’s Space segment. Its autonomous systems (MQ-4C drone) are a strength, but smaller scale (~$39B revenue) limits R&D firepower compared to Lockheed.
  • General Dynamics (GD): General Dynamics competes in naval systems (Virginia-class submarines) and IT services, with less exposure to aircraft. Its Gulfstream business adds commercial diversification. However, its land systems (e.g., Abrams tank) face budget cyclicality, and it lacks Lockheed’s space portfolio.
  • Airbus SE (AIR.PA): Airbus is Lockheed’s primary European rival in military transport (A400M) and helicopters (H225M). Strengths include commercial aerospace leverage, but its defense unit is smaller and less integrated than Lockheed’s. Geopolitical barriers limit U.S. market penetration.
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