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Stock Analysis & ValuationMcDonald's Corporation (MDO.DE)

Professional Stock Screener
Previous Close
263.55
Sector Valuation Confidence Level
Moderate
Valuation methodValue, Upside, %
Artificial intelligence (AI)208.00-21
Intrinsic value (DCF)132.81-50
Graham-Dodd Methodn/a
Graham Formula95.80-64

Strategic Investment Analysis

Company Overview

McDonald's Corporation (MDO.DE) is the world's leading global foodservice retailer, operating and franchising McDonald's restaurants across the United States and internationally. With a presence in over 100 countries and more than 40,000 locations as of December 2021, McDonald's serves a diverse menu featuring hamburgers, chicken products, breakfast items, beverages, and desserts. The company's business model relies heavily on franchising, with approximately 93% of its restaurants operated by independent franchisees, ensuring scalability and local market adaptation. McDonald's is a dominant player in the fast-food industry, leveraging its strong brand recognition, efficient supply chain, and digital transformation initiatives like mobile ordering and delivery partnerships. Headquartered in Chicago, Illinois, McDonald's continues to innovate with menu diversification, sustainability efforts, and technology-driven customer experiences, reinforcing its position in the Consumer Cyclical sector.

Investment Summary

McDonald's presents a compelling investment case due to its resilient business model, strong cash flow generation, and global brand dominance. The company's extensive franchise network provides stable revenue streams with high margins, while its focus on digital innovation and menu expansion supports long-term growth. However, risks include exposure to inflationary pressures, labor costs, and geopolitical uncertainties in international markets. With a market capitalization of approximately €198 billion, a beta of 0.567 indicating lower volatility, and a solid dividend yield, McDonald's remains a defensive play in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Investors should monitor execution risks in digital transformation and competitive pressures from emerging fast-casual chains.

Competitive Analysis

McDonald's maintains a competitive advantage through its unparalleled global scale, brand equity, and franchise-driven operating model. Its supply chain efficiency and standardized processes ensure consistent quality and cost control, while localized menu adaptations cater to regional tastes. The company's investments in digital platforms (e.g., mobile app, kiosks) and delivery partnerships enhance convenience and customer retention. However, McDonald's faces intensifying competition from fast-casual chains offering healthier options (e.g., Chipotle) and tech-savvy rivals leveraging digital engagement. While McDonald's outperforms peers in operating margins (approx. 45%), its growth relies on mature markets, whereas competitors like Yum! Brands benefit from faster expansion in emerging economies. The company's pricing power and marketing prowess solidify its leadership, but evolving consumer preferences toward sustainability and health-conscious dining pose long-term challenges.

Major Competitors

  • Yum! Brands Inc. (YUM): Yum! Brands operates KFC, Pizza Hut, and Taco Bell, with a strong focus on international growth, particularly in China. Its decentralized model allows agility but lacks McDonald's supply chain integration. YUM's higher growth in emerging markets contrasts with McDonald's reliance on established regions.
  • Starbucks Corporation (SBUX): Starbucks dominates the premium coffee segment with a loyalty program and global footprint. While not a direct competitor in menu offerings, Starbucks competes for morning/daypart traffic. Its higher labor costs and reliance on company-operated stores limit margin scalability compared to McDonald's franchise-heavy model.
  • Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (CMG): Chipotle leads the fast-casual segment with a focus on fresh, customizable ingredients. Its smaller store count (~3,000) and lack of franchising limit scale but appeal to health-conscious consumers. Chipotle's digital sales growth rivals McDonald's, though its higher price point narrows addressable market.
  • Restaurant Brands International Inc. (QSR): RBI owns Burger King, Tim Hortons, and Popeyes, competing directly in burgers and breakfast. RBI's weaker brand equity and operational inconsistencies hinder margins compared to McDonald's. However, Popeyes' chicken focus poses a niche threat to McDonald's chicken offerings.
  • Domino's Pizza Inc. (DPZ): Domino's excels in pizza delivery and digital ordering, with a asset-light franchise model similar to McDonald's. Its smaller menu and lower international penetration limit diversification but enable cost efficiency. Domino's tech-driven delivery system is a benchmark for McDonald's own delivery initiatives.
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