investorscraft@gmail.com

Stock Analysis & ValuationMidland States Bancorp, Inc. (MSBI)

Previous Close
$22.85
Sector Valuation Confidence Level
High
Valuation methodValue, $Upside, %
Artificial intelligence (AI)21.88-4
Intrinsic value (DCF)1134.224864
Graham-Dodd Method9.20-60
Graham Formula26.6917

Strategic Investment Analysis

Company Overview

Midland States Bancorp, Inc. (NASDAQ: MSBI) is a regional financial holding company headquartered in Effingham, Illinois, operating through its subsidiary, Midland States Bank. Founded in 1881, the company provides a comprehensive suite of banking and wealth management services to individuals, businesses, and municipalities across Illinois and Missouri. Its offerings include commercial and residential real estate loans, consumer installment loans, commercial equipment leasing, and trust and wealth management services. With 52 full-service banking offices, Midland States Bancorp serves a diverse clientele, emphasizing community-focused banking solutions. The company operates through three segments: Banking, Wealth Management, and Other, ensuring a diversified revenue stream. As a regional bank, MSBI plays a critical role in local economic development, supporting small businesses and agricultural enterprises. Its strong Midwest presence and commitment to personalized financial services position it as a key player in the regional banking sector.

Investment Summary

Midland States Bancorp presents a mixed investment profile. On the positive side, the company benefits from a stable regional footprint, diversified revenue streams (including wealth management), and a long-standing presence in its markets. Its beta of 0.688 suggests lower volatility compared to broader markets, which may appeal to risk-averse investors. However, the company reported a net loss of $13.43 million in its latest fiscal year, with diluted EPS at -$0.62, raising concerns about profitability. The dividend yield of 1.24 per share offers some income appeal, but investors should monitor credit quality and interest rate sensitivity, given its exposure to commercial real estate and agricultural loans. The regional banking sector faces challenges from rising competition and regulatory pressures, which could impact MSBI's growth trajectory.

Competitive Analysis

Midland States Bancorp competes in the highly fragmented regional banking sector, where differentiation hinges on local market expertise, customer service, and niche lending capabilities. Its competitive advantages include deep community ties, a diversified product mix (including wealth management), and a focus on agricultural and small business lending—key sectors in its Midwest operating area. However, the company faces intense competition from larger regional banks with greater scale and digital banking capabilities. MSBI’s smaller asset base ($2.5B market cap) limits its ability to invest in technology at the same level as national or super-regional peers, potentially putting it at a disadvantage in attracting tech-savvy customers. Its loan portfolio is concentrated in commercial real estate and agriculture, which could expose it to sector-specific downturns. On the positive side, its wealth management segment provides fee-based income diversification, reducing reliance on net interest margins. The bank’s conservative underwriting and local decision-making may help mitigate credit risks, but its growth prospects are constrained by its geographic concentration.

Major Competitors

  • Home BancShares, Inc. (HOMB): Home BancShares operates in the Southeast and Midwest, with a stronger acquisition-driven growth strategy compared to MSBI. It has a larger asset base and more aggressive expansion tactics, but its credit risk may be higher due to rapid growth. Unlike MSBI, it lacks a dedicated wealth management segment.
  • Simmons First National Corporation (SFNC): Simmons First National has a broader geographic footprint across the South and Midwest, with a stronger emphasis on digital banking. Its scale allows for better cost efficiency, but MSBI’s localized focus may give it an edge in customer retention in Illinois/Missouri markets.
  • First Busey Corporation (BUSE): First Busey is another Illinois-based competitor with a similar community banking model. It has a slightly larger presence in urban markets like Chicago, whereas MSBI focuses more on rural and agricultural lending. Busey’s wealth management division is more developed, posing a direct challenge to MSBI.
  • Cass Information Systems, Inc. (CASS): Cass specializes in payment processing and information services for large corporations, diverging from MSBI’s community banking focus. However, it competes indirectly in treasury management services for Midwestern businesses.
HomeMenuAccount