US · MUSA
Murphy USA Inc.
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical · Specialty Retail
- Headquarters
- El Dorado, AR 71730-5836
- Website
- murphyusa.com
Price · as of 2025-12-31
$596.92
Market cap 7.24B
Valuation summary
Four models, one snapshot. Upside is target ÷ current − 1.
| Valuation method | Value, $ | Upside, % |
|---|---|---|
| Artificial Intelligence(AI) | $341.99 | -42.71% |
| Intrinsic Value(DCF) | $161.23 | -72.99% |
| Graham-Dodd Method(GD) | $104.96 | -82.42% |
| Graham Formula(GF) | $100.27 | -83.2% |
Valuation history
Annual price (USD per share) overlaid with each model's fair value. Y-axis is log scale.
| Year | Price | AI | DCF | Graham-Dodd | Graham Formula |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | |||||
| 2012 | $32.58 | $17.96 | |||
| 2013 | $39.96 | $69.06 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $10.10 |
| 2014 | $67.96 | $66.14 | $0.00 | $45.07 | $12.65 |
| 2015 | $62.57 | $55.66 | $0.00 | $38.54 | $0.00 |
| 2016 | $64.65 | $56.01 | $0.00 | $45.95 | $0.00 |
| 2017 | $74.35 | $73.50 | $0.00 | $54.86 | $125.11 |
| 2018 | $75.45 | $77.34 | $277.23 | $57.39 | $128.19 |
| 2019 | $103.76 | $100.77 | $8.59 | $49.91 | $29.53 |
| 2020 | $125.87 | $107.41 | $0.00 | $89.63 | $0.00 |
| 2021 | $171.93 | $157.38 | $7,438.06 | $78.38 | $908.19 |
| 2022 | $249.60 | $243.76 | $33,843.18 | $137.36 | $1,191.12 |
| 2023 | $412.35 | $323.19 | $16,548.77 | $129.53 | $7.43 |
| 2024 | $452.79 | $327.54 | $1.12 | $120.42 | $58.52 |
| 2025 | $403.07 | $341.99 | $0.00 | $104.96 | $100.27 |
AI valuation
Our deep-learning model estimates Murphy USA Inc.'s (MUSA) per-share fair value from quarterly fundamentals, sector trend, and historical valuation patterns.
- AI fair value
- $341.99
- Current price
- $596.92
- AI upside
- -42.71%
Methodology and confidence bands appear in the dedicated valuation theory section. The AI score is an estimate, not a recommendation.
Intrinsic value (DCF)
Open DCF calculatorThree textbook valuation models, recomputed daily from the latest financial statements. The DCF uses our Chepakovich model. Graham-Dodd and Graham Formula are conservative reference points.
DCF
$161.23
-72.99% upside
Graham-Dodd
$104.96
-82.42% upside
Graham Formula
$100.27
-83.2% upside
Peer comparison
Same-industry comparables, ranked by market cap.
| Basic Info | Model Valuation | Core Valuation | Profitability | Leverage & Liquidity | Growth | Cash Flow | Dividends | Enterprise Value | Risk | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ticker | Company Name | Price | Market Cap | AI Upside | DCF Upside | GD Upside | GF Upside | P/E | P/B | P/S | EV/EBITDA | PEG | P/TBV | Gross Margin | Operating Margin | Net Margin | ROE | ROIC | ROA | Debt/Equity | Interest Coverage | Current Ratio | Quick Ratio | Net Debt/EBITDA | EPS Growth | Sales Growth | FCF Growth | FCF Yield | Op Cash Flow Ratio | Cash ROIC | Dividend Yield | Dividend Payout | Shareholder Yield | EV/EBIT | EV/FCF | EV/Sales | Altman Z-Score |
| MUSA | Murphy USA Inc. | $596.92 | 7.24B | -43% | -73% | -82% | -83% | 16.53 | 12.48 | 0.40 | 11.00 | — | 49.81 | 5.01% | 3.81% | 2.43% | 64.31% | 16.30% | 10.16% | 5.22 | 6.67 | 0.80 | 0.33 | 3.22 | -4.00% | -425.00% | -390.00% | 4.81% | 0.88 | 10.68% | 0.53% | 8.80% | 8.89% | 14.89 | 29.40 | 0.57 | 6.95 |
| ALSN | Allison Transmission Hold… | $125.30 | 10.43B | +14% | -41% | -85% | -89% | 17.11 | 5.71 | 3.54 | 11.78 | — | -10.64 | 48.37% | 32.33% | 20.70% | 35.42% | 22.91% | 10.91% | 1.56 | 9.93 | 4.85 | 3.97 | 1.39 | -1179.00% | -667.00% | -137.00% | 6.09% | 1.79 | 19.72% | 0.85% | 14.60% | 5.93% | 12.42 | 18.62 | 4.02 | 2.88 |
| AN | AutoNation, Inc. | $195.16 | 6.77B | +16% | -60% | -44% | -2% | 11.33 | 3.14 | 0.27 | 11.62 | 1597.64 | -75.74 | 17.00% | 4.83% | 2.35% | 27.05% | 8.35% | 4.74% | 4.35 | 3.62 | 0.84 | 0.18 | 6.73 | 71.00% | 324.00% | 133116.00% | -2.69% | 0.02 | -1.68% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 10.76% | 13.09 | -88.51 | 0.63 | 3.10 |
| BBWI | Bath & Body Works, Inc. | $22.76 | 4.69B | +125% | -54% | — | +5% | 7.09 | -4.08 | 0.77 | 6.13 | — | -2.60 | 44.26% | 17.33% | 10.92% | -52.99% | 34.11% | 15.44% | -3.58 | 4.06 | 1.48 | 0.71 | 2.64 | -574.00% | -164.00% | 61.00% | 11.67% | 0.72 | 22.91% | 3.13% | 22.20% | 13.82% | 7.85 | 15.06 | 1.36 | 2.59 |
| BIRK | Birkenstock Holding plc | $41.65 | 7.66B | +31% | -45% | -56% | +24% | 20.18 | 2.58 | 3.35 | 12.13 | 24.21 | -19.16 | 59.11% | 26.20% | 16.61% | 13.03% | 11.16% | 7.09% | 0.48 | 7.27 | 2.81 | 1.17 | 1.49 | 8333.00% | 1622.00% | -1875.00% | 4.10% | 0.82 | 7.90% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 2.97% | 14.55 | 27.74 | 3.81 | 3.11 |
| CHDN | Churchill Downs Incorpora… | $91.93 | 6.41B | +26% | -29% | -81% | -14% | 17.24 | -32.78 | 2.27 | 6.96 | — | -32.78 | 33.58% | 25.17% | 12.98% | 87.52% | 16.60% | 9.68% | -3.96 | 2.47 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.75 | -634.00% | 701.00% | 11927.00% | 7.45% | 8.66 | 15.41% | 0.46% | 8.00% | 66.17% | 10.11 | 15.05 | 2.55 | 12.09 |
| ETSY | Etsy, Inc. | $54.88 | 5.42B | +59% | -61% | — | -68% | 32.52 | -4.83 | 1.84 | 13.28 | — | -3.70 | 71.64% | 9.23% | 5.65% | -17.55% | -25.38% | 6.21% | -0.68 | 28.15 | 1.44 | 1.34 | -1.96 | -4085.00% | 268.00% | -816.00% | 12.79% | 0.51 | -97.83% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 56.73% | 16.62 | 6.52 | 1.53 | 1.20 |
| LEVI | Levi Strauss & Co. | $22.16 | 8.76B | +64% | -63% | -81% | -54% | 16.09 | 3.54 | 1.29 | 10.72 | 8.99 | 4.48 | 61.73% | 10.79% | 9.20% | 23.63% | 14.84% | 7.59% | 1.01 | 13.94 | 1.55 | 0.80 | 1.74 | 17885.00% | -115.00% | -5166.00% | 4.02% | 0.27 | 8.97% | 2.64% | 42.40% | 4.50% | 14.07 | 29.39 | 1.52 | 2.89 |
| MHK | Mohawk Industries, Inc. | $125.27 | 7.74B | -7% | -62% | +16% | -63% | 20.02 | 0.88 | 0.69 | 8.17 | — | 1.16 | 23.87% | 4.73% | 3.43% | 4.64% | 4.06% | 2.80% | 0.33 | 28.63 | 2.19 | 1.02 | 1.67 | -2715.00% | -48.00% | -932.00% | 8.32% | 0.39 | 6.23% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 2.78% | 18.26 | 15.11 | 0.86 | 2.03 |
| MNSO | MINISO Group Holding Limi… | $18.02 | 5.61B | +65% | -26% | -88% | +4,259% | 16.43 | 4.20 | 2.55 | 12.31 | 2.53 | 5.01 | 44.94% | 19.51% | 15.40% | 27.05% | 49.62% | 16.17% | 0.30 | 256.83 | 2.04 | 1.50 | -1.00 | 65000.00% | 68876.00% | -1560.00% | 3.25% | 0.38 | 26.72% | 2.87% | 47.20% | 3.60% | 11.98 | 28.26 | 2.34 | 5.61 |
| VIPS | Vipshop Holdings Limited | $17.42 | 8.72B | -15% | -26% | +20% | -33% | 8.46 | 1.49 | 0.58 | 4.08 | — | 2.08 | 23.12% | 7.68% | 6.84% | 17.89% | 38.87% | 9.42% | 0.16 | 92.89 | 1.28 | 0.96 | -1.73 | -139.00% | -231.00% | -10000.00% | 0.00% | 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 4.79 | — | 0.37 | 2.89 |
About Murphy USA Inc.
Murphy USA Inc. engages in marketing of retail motor fuel products and convenience merchandise. The company operates retail stores under the Murphy USA, Murphy Express, and QuickChek brands. As of December 31, 2021, it operated 1,679 retail gasoline stores principally in the Southeast, Southwest, and Midwest United States. The company was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in El Dorado, Arkansas.
- CEO
- Renee Bacon
- Employees
- 5.9K
- Beta
- 0.39
Disclaimer: Information on this page is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Upside computed as ($161.23 ÷ $596.92) − 1 = -72.99% (DCF, example).