Stock Analysis & Valuation Aurubis AG (NDA.DE)

• Previous Close: €160.40
• Sector Valuation Confidence Level: Moderate

Valuation method	Value, €	Upside, %
Artificial intelligence (AI)	77.85	-51
Intrinsic value (DCF)	31.86	-80
Graham-Dodd Method	130.93	-18
Graham Formula	79.31	-51

Strategic Investment Analysis

Company Overview

Aurubis AG (NDA.DE) is a leading German copper producer and recycler, specializing in the processing of metal concentrates, scrap metals, and industrial residues. Founded in 1866 and headquartered in Hamburg, the company operates in the Basic Materials sector, focusing on copper and non-ferrous metals. Aurubis produces a wide range of products, including wire rods, specialty wires, rolled products, and precious metals like gold and silver. The company also recycles copper scrap, electronic waste, and industrial by-products, contributing to sustainable resource management. With a strong presence in Europe, Aurubis plays a critical role in the global copper supply chain, serving industries such as construction, automotive, and electronics. Its vertically integrated business model—from raw material sourcing to finished products—enhances efficiency and cost control. Aurubis is listed on the Deutsche Börse (XETRA) and is known for its technological expertise in metallurgy and recycling.

Investment Summary

Aurubis AG presents a mixed investment case. On the positive side, the company benefits from strong demand for copper in renewable energy and electrification trends, along with its leadership in metal recycling—a growing segment due to sustainability concerns. However, its profitability is sensitive to volatile copper prices and energy costs, which can impact margins. The company’s moderate net income (€416M in FY 2023) and high capital expenditures (€846M) suggest tight cash flow management. While its dividend yield (~1.5%) is modest, Aurubis’s beta of 1.095 indicates higher volatility than the market. Investors should weigh its exposure to commodity cycles against its long-term positioning in the circular economy.

Competitive Analysis

Aurubis AG holds a competitive advantage as Europe’s largest copper producer and one of the most efficient recyclers of non-ferrous metals. Its vertically integrated operations—from smelting to fabrication—allow for cost efficiencies and quality control. The company’s recycling capabilities are a key differentiator, as regulatory pressures and ESG trends drive demand for sustainable metal sourcing. However, Aurubis faces stiff competition from global players with larger scale, such as Freeport-McMoRan and Jiangxi Copper. While Aurubis dominates in Europe, its geographic concentration could be a risk compared to diversified competitors. Additionally, its reliance on external scrap suppliers exposes it to supply chain disruptions. Technological investments in recycling and energy efficiency provide a moat, but high energy costs in Europe remain a structural challenge. Overall, Aurubis is well-positioned in niche markets but must navigate commodity price swings and regional energy constraints.

Major Competitors

• Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (FCX): Freeport-McMoRan is a global leader in copper production, with massive scale and diversified mining assets. Its strengths include low-cost operations in the Americas and strong pricing power. However, it lacks Aurubis’s recycling focus and is more exposed to mining risks. Freeport’s geographic diversification contrasts with Aurubis’s European concentration.
• Jiangxi Copper Co. Ltd. (600362.SS): Jiangxi Copper is China’s largest copper producer, benefiting from domestic demand and state support. Its integrated supply chain and low labor costs give it pricing advantages, but it lags in recycling technology compared to Aurubis. Its reliance on the Chinese market makes it less globally diversified.
• BHP Group Ltd. (BHP): BHP is a diversified mining giant with significant copper operations. Its strengths include economies of scale and strong financials, but copper is only a segment of its portfolio. Unlike Aurubis, BHP does not specialize in recycling, and its focus is on extraction rather than downstream processing.
• Rio Tinto Group (RIO): Rio Tinto is another diversified miner with copper assets. Its strengths lie in technological innovation and global reach, but it lacks Aurubis’s specialization in recycling and fabrication. Rio’s broader commodity base reduces copper-specific risks but also dilutes its focus.
• Southern Copper Corporation (SCCO): Southern Copper is a pure-play copper producer with high-quality reserves in Latin America. It has lower production costs than Aurubis but minimal recycling operations. Its geographic focus in Peru and Mexico presents political risks absent in Aurubis’s European base.