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Stock Analysis & ValuationOld National Bancorp (ONBPO)

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$25.20
Sector Valuation Confidence Level
High
Valuation methodValue, $Upside, %
Artificial intelligence (AI)39.8958
Intrinsic value (DCF)136.88443
Graham-Dodd Method12.90-49
Graham Formula41.4965

Strategic Investment Analysis

Company Overview

Old National Bancorp (NASDAQ: ONBPO) is a leading regional bank holding company headquartered in Evansville, Indiana, with a rich history dating back to 1834. Through its subsidiary, Old National Bank, the company provides a comprehensive suite of financial services, including commercial and consumer banking, wealth management, treasury services, and capital markets solutions. Operating primarily in the Midwest—Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin—Old National Bancorp serves both individual and business clients with a strong focus on community banking and relationship-driven services. With $7.63 billion in market capitalization and a network of 162 banking centers, the bank emphasizes digital banking, cash management, and investment advisory services to enhance customer experience. As a key player in the regional banking sector, Old National Bancorp combines traditional banking stability with modern financial solutions, positioning itself as a trusted financial partner in its markets.

Investment Summary

Old National Bancorp presents a stable investment opportunity within the regional banking sector, supported by its diversified revenue streams, strong Midwest presence, and consistent profitability. The company’s $1.89 billion in revenue and $539.2 million net income (FY 2021) reflect solid operational performance, while its 0.842 beta suggests lower volatility compared to broader markets. A dividend yield of ~3.5% (based on a $1.75 annual dividend) adds income appeal. However, risks include exposure to regional economic fluctuations, competitive pressures from larger national banks, and interest rate sensitivity. The bank’s conservative leverage (total debt of $5.14 billion against $1.23 billion in cash) and focus on organic growth through digital transformation and customer retention strategies may mitigate some risks. Investors should monitor net interest margin trends and loan portfolio health in a rising-rate environment.

Competitive Analysis

Old National Bancorp competes in the crowded regional banking space, where differentiation hinges on customer service, localized expertise, and digital capabilities. Its competitive advantages include deep regional penetration in the Midwest, a long-standing community trust (189 years in operation), and a diversified product mix spanning commercial lending, wealth management, and treasury services. The bank’s smaller scale allows for agility in tailoring solutions to local businesses, a contrast to national banks’ standardized offerings. However, it faces stiff competition from both larger peers with greater resources (e.g., U.S. Bancorp, PNC) and fintech disruptors eroding traditional banking margins. Old National’s recent investments in digital banking (e.g., mobile platforms, cash management tools) aim to close the technology gap with megabanks while retaining its relationship banking edge. Its conservative credit culture and focus on commercial real estate (CRE) and middle-market lending provide stability but may limit growth in a downturn. The bank’s M&A history (e.g., its 2022 merger with First Midwest) suggests strategic consolidation as a pathway to scale, though integration risks persist.

Major Competitors

  • U.S. Bancorp (USB): U.S. Bancorp (NYSE: USB) is a dominant national player with a strong Midwest footprint, offering broader scale and more sophisticated treasury services than Old National. Its larger balance sheet and national reach provide cost advantages, but its size can lead to less personalized service. USB’s higher regulatory scrutiny as a systemically important bank (SIB) contrasts with Old National’s regional flexibility.
  • PNC Financial Services Group (PNC): PNC (NYSE: PNC) competes directly in several Old National markets with a stronger commercial banking franchise and national digital capabilities (e.g., Virtual Wallet). PNC’s recent BBVA USA acquisition expanded its geographic reach, but integration challenges and higher operational complexity may create openings for Old National to exploit local relationships.
  • Home BancShares (HOMB): Home BancShares (NASDAQ: HOMB) operates in overlapping Southern/Midwest markets with a similar community bank model. Its lower cost structure and acquisitive growth strategy pose a threat, but Old National’s larger scale and more diversified revenue streams (e.g., wealth management) provide a counterbalance.
  • Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB): Fifth Third (NASDAQ: FITB) is a Midwest-focused regional bank with greater scale and a stronger capital markets presence. Its digital investments (e.g., Momentum Banking) compete with Old National’s offerings, but Old National’s smaller size allows for faster decision-making in niche markets like community development lending.
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