| Valuation method | Value, $ | Upside, % |
|---|---|---|
| Artificial intelligence (AI) | 39.89 | 58 |
| Intrinsic value (DCF) | 136.88 | 443 |
| Graham-Dodd Method | 12.90 | -49 |
| Graham Formula | 41.49 | 65 |
Old National Bancorp (NASDAQ: ONBPO) is a leading regional bank holding company headquartered in Evansville, Indiana, with a rich history dating back to 1834. Through its subsidiary, Old National Bank, the company provides a comprehensive suite of financial services, including commercial and consumer banking, wealth management, treasury services, and capital markets solutions. Operating primarily in the Midwest—Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin—Old National Bancorp serves both individual and business clients with a strong focus on community banking and relationship-driven services. With $7.63 billion in market capitalization and a network of 162 banking centers, the bank emphasizes digital banking, cash management, and investment advisory services to enhance customer experience. As a key player in the regional banking sector, Old National Bancorp combines traditional banking stability with modern financial solutions, positioning itself as a trusted financial partner in its markets.
Old National Bancorp presents a stable investment opportunity within the regional banking sector, supported by its diversified revenue streams, strong Midwest presence, and consistent profitability. The company’s $1.89 billion in revenue and $539.2 million net income (FY 2021) reflect solid operational performance, while its 0.842 beta suggests lower volatility compared to broader markets. A dividend yield of ~3.5% (based on a $1.75 annual dividend) adds income appeal. However, risks include exposure to regional economic fluctuations, competitive pressures from larger national banks, and interest rate sensitivity. The bank’s conservative leverage (total debt of $5.14 billion against $1.23 billion in cash) and focus on organic growth through digital transformation and customer retention strategies may mitigate some risks. Investors should monitor net interest margin trends and loan portfolio health in a rising-rate environment.
Old National Bancorp competes in the crowded regional banking space, where differentiation hinges on customer service, localized expertise, and digital capabilities. Its competitive advantages include deep regional penetration in the Midwest, a long-standing community trust (189 years in operation), and a diversified product mix spanning commercial lending, wealth management, and treasury services. The bank’s smaller scale allows for agility in tailoring solutions to local businesses, a contrast to national banks’ standardized offerings. However, it faces stiff competition from both larger peers with greater resources (e.g., U.S. Bancorp, PNC) and fintech disruptors eroding traditional banking margins. Old National’s recent investments in digital banking (e.g., mobile platforms, cash management tools) aim to close the technology gap with megabanks while retaining its relationship banking edge. Its conservative credit culture and focus on commercial real estate (CRE) and middle-market lending provide stability but may limit growth in a downturn. The bank’s M&A history (e.g., its 2022 merger with First Midwest) suggests strategic consolidation as a pathway to scale, though integration risks persist.