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Stock Analysis & ValuationOld National Bancorp (ONBPP)

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$25.25
Sector Valuation Confidence Level
High
Valuation methodValue, $Upside, %
Artificial intelligence (AI)40.1959
Intrinsic value (DCF)140.83458
Graham-Dodd Method12.90-49
Graham Formula41.4964

Strategic Investment Analysis

Company Overview

Old National Bancorp (NASDAQ: ONBPP) is a leading regional bank holding company headquartered in Evansville, Indiana, with a rich history dating back to 1834. Operating primarily in the Midwest, Old National Bancorp provides a comprehensive suite of financial services, including commercial and consumer banking, wealth management, treasury services, and capital markets solutions. The company serves individual and business clients across Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin through its 162 banking centers. With a strong focus on community banking, Old National Bancorp emphasizes relationship-driven services, digital banking innovation, and sustainable lending practices. The bank’s diversified revenue streams—spanning interest income, fee-based services, and wealth management—position it as a resilient player in the regional banking sector. As a mid-cap financial institution with a market capitalization of approximately $7.6 billion, Old National Bancorp combines regional expertise with the scale to compete effectively in a consolidating industry.

Investment Summary

Old National Bancorp presents a stable investment opportunity within the regional banking sector, supported by its strong Midwest footprint, diversified revenue streams, and consistent profitability. The company’s net income of $539 million (2021) and diluted EPS of $1.68 reflect efficient operations, while its dividend yield (based on a $1.75 annual payout) may appeal to income-focused investors. However, risks include exposure to regional economic fluctuations, competitive pressures from larger national banks, and interest rate sensitivity. With a beta of 0.84, ONBPP is less volatile than the broader market, aligning with its conservative lending practices. Investors should monitor loan portfolio quality, particularly in commercial real estate, and the bank’s ability to integrate acquisitions while maintaining margins.

Competitive Analysis

Old National Bancorp competes in the crowded Midwest regional banking landscape, where it differentiates itself through deep community ties, personalized service, and a hybrid digital-traditional banking model. Its competitive advantages include a low-cost deposit base (evidenced by $1.23 billion in cash reserves), a strong commercial lending franchise, and cross-selling opportunities via wealth management services. However, it faces intense competition from both larger national banks (e.g., U.S. Bancorp) with superior technology budgets and smaller community banks with hyper-local focus. ONB’s scale—larger than pure community banks but smaller than money-center institutions—allows operational efficiency while retaining agility. Its recent mergers (e.g., First Midwest Bancorp) have expanded its footprint but also introduced integration risks. The bank’s 0.84 beta suggests lower systemic risk than peers, but its loan-to-deposit ratio and net interest margin will be key indicators of sustained competitiveness amid rising rates.

Major Competitors

  • U.S. Bancorp (USB): U.S. Bancorp (NYSE: USB) is a dominant Midwest competitor with a national presence, offering superior digital banking tools and a larger commercial lending platform. Its scale provides cost advantages but may lack ONB’s localized customer focus. Weaknesses include higher regulatory scrutiny due to its size.
  • Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB): Fifth Third (NASDAQ: FITB) overlaps significantly with ONB in the Midwest, boasting stronger capital markets operations and a larger branch network. However, ONB’s lower efficiency ratio (55.8% vs. FITB’s 60.1% in 2021) suggests better cost management.
  • Home BancShares (HOMB): Home BancShares (NASDAQ: HOMB) is a regional peer with a focus on the Southern U.S., competing indirectly via similar asset sizes. HOMB’s acquisitive strategy mirrors ONB’s, but ONB’s Midwest concentration may offer more stable demographic trends.
  • Webster Financial Corporation (WBS): Webster (NYSE: WBS) operates in the Northeast with comparable assets (~$65B). While not a direct geographic competitor, WBS’s commercial banking strengths highlight ONB’s need to defend its Midwest niche against encroaching regionals.
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