| Valuation method | Value, $ | Upside, % |
|---|---|---|
| Artificial intelligence (AI) | 12.90 | -95 |
| Intrinsic value (DCF) | 182.89 | -33 |
| Graham-Dodd Method | n/a | |
| Graham Formula | n/a |
Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico (GAP) (NYSE: PAC) is a leading airport operator managing 12 strategic airports in Mexico's Pacific region, including major hubs like Guadalajara, Tijuana, and Puerto Vallarta. As a key player in Mexico's aviation infrastructure, GAP benefits from long-term government concessions, passenger traffic growth, and tourism-driven demand. The company generates revenue through aeronautical services (landing fees, passenger charges) and non-aeronautical streams (retail, parking, advertising). With a monopoly-like position in its regions, GAP leverages Mexico's status as a global tourism destination and nearshoring-driven business travel. Its capital-light model and high EBITDA margins (65%+) reflect pricing power and operational efficiency. As Mexico's second-largest airport operator by passenger volume, GAP is critical to the country's transportation network and economic development.
GAP offers investors stable cash flows, inflation-linked tariffs, and exposure to Mexico's structural air travel growth (6%+ annual passenger CAGR). Its high-margin business (net margin ~32%) and strong dividend yield (~4%) are attractive, but risks include regulatory changes, peso volatility, and overreliance on tourism (60%+ international traffic). Debt (48B MXN) is manageable given cash reserves (13.5B MXN) and cash flow generation (16.7B MXN operating cash flow). The stock's low beta (0.59) suggests defensive characteristics, but valuations (EV/EBITDA ~9x) already reflect growth expectations. Key catalysts include Tijuana's cross-border traffic and Guadalajara's expansion as a nearshoring hub.
GAP's competitive advantage stems from government concessions granting exclusive 50-year rights to operate its airports, creating high barriers to entry. Its Pacific region focus captures premium tourism (Los Cabos, Puerto Vallarta) and manufacturing corridors (Tijuana's maquiladoras). Unlike competitors, GAP benefits from U.S. proximity—Tijuana handles 25% of all Mexico-U.S. air passengers. Operational efficiency is superior, with EBITDA margins 5-10pp higher than peers due to scale in Guadalajara (2nd busiest Mexican airport) and cost controls. However, it lacks exposure to Mexico City's hub (controlled by ASUR), limiting connecting traffic. GAP's non-aeronautical revenue per passenger ($8.50) trails global leaders but exceeds Mexican peers, with untapped potential in duty-free and VIP lounges. The main vulnerability is concentration risk—Guadalajara and Tijuana contribute 60% of revenue, making regional economic shocks impactful. Climate change resilience is stronger than coastal competitors (e.g., Cancun), with only Los Cabos exposed to hurricane risks.