| Valuation method | Value, € | Upside, % |
|---|---|---|
| Artificial intelligence (AI) | 41.71 | -30 |
| Intrinsic value (DCF) | 56.39 | -6 |
| Graham-Dodd Method | 122.79 | 105 |
| Graham Formula | 104.84 | 75 |
Savencia SA (SAVE.PA) is a leading French dairy producer specializing in cheese, butter, cream, and dairy ingredients for retail, catering, and industrial applications. Headquartered in Viroflay, France, the company operates globally, serving food, nutrition, and healthcare industries. Formerly known as Bongrain SA, Savencia rebranded in 2015 to reflect its diversified dairy portfolio. With a heritage dating back to 1956, the company has established itself as a key player in the packaged foods sector, particularly in premium cheese and dairy solutions. Savencia's business model focuses on high-quality dairy production, innovation in food ingredients, and strong B2B and B2C distribution networks. As part of the consumer defensive sector, the company benefits from stable demand for dairy products, though it faces challenges from commodity price volatility and shifting consumer preferences toward plant-based alternatives. Savencia's international presence and product diversification help mitigate regional market risks while capitalizing on global dairy consumption trends.
Savencia SA presents a stable investment opportunity within the defensive consumer goods sector, supported by consistent demand for dairy products. The company's €924 million market cap, €106.9 million net income (FY 2024), and €1.6 dividend per share indicate moderate financial health, though its 0.514 beta suggests lower volatility than the broader market. Strengths include a diversified product portfolio, strong European market positioning, and steady cash flow (€386.9 million operating cash flow). However, risks include exposure to dairy commodity price fluctuations, high total debt (€1.21 billion), and intensifying competition from plant-based alternatives. The stock may appeal to income-focused investors (current yield ~2.8% based on share price ~€57) but faces margin pressures from input cost inflation. International expansion and premium product innovation could drive growth, but investors should monitor debt levels and sustainability initiatives in a shifting dairy landscape.
Savencia competes in the fragmented global dairy market by leveraging its specialization in premium cheeses and value-added dairy ingredients. Its competitive advantage stems from: (1) Strong brand recognition in European retail (Notre Dame, Caprice des Dieux), (2) Technical expertise in dairy processing for industrial clients, and (3) Vertical integration controlling production from milk sourcing to distribution. However, it lacks the scale of multinational giants like Lactalis or Danone. Savencia's focus on artisanal and specialty cheeses differentiates it from commoditized dairy players, but this niche approach limits volume growth potential. The company trails larger peers in plant-based dairy alternatives—a fast-growing segment. Its B2B dairy ingredients division provides stable revenue but faces stiff competition from Arla Foods Ingredients and FrieslandCampina. Geographic concentration in Europe (~70% of revenue) exposes it to regional market saturation, whereas competitors like Saputo have broader Americas/Asia exposure. Supply chain efficiencies and retailer relationships support margins, but private label competition in basic cheeses erodes pricing power. Sustainability investments in dairy farming partnerships may enhance long-term milk supply security versus peers.