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Stock Analysis & ValuationTern Plc (TERN.L)

Professional Stock Screener
Previous Close
£0.48
Sector Valuation Confidence Level
Low
Valuation methodValue, £Upside, %
Artificial intelligence (AI)33.757005
Intrinsic value (DCF)0.47-1
Graham-Dodd Methodn/a
Graham Formula0.6741

Strategic Investment Analysis

Company Overview

Tern Plc is a London-based venture capital firm specializing in growth capital investments in innovative software companies, particularly those focused on IoT security, AI, machine learning, VR/AR, and data science solutions for healthcare and industrial sectors. Operating in the high-growth technology sector, Tern Plc primarily targets UK-based startups and scale-ups, positioning itself as a key player in fostering next-generation digital transformation technologies. The company, formerly known as Silvermere Energy plc, leverages its expertise to identify disruptive tech firms with scalable business models. With a market cap of approximately £9.25 million, Tern Plc plays a niche but strategic role in the UK's tech investment landscape, supporting cutting-edge innovations that address critical industry challenges in security, automation, and data analytics.

Investment Summary

Tern Plc presents a high-risk, high-reward investment opportunity given its focus on early-stage tech ventures. The company reported a net loss of £12.6 million in FY 2023, reflecting the inherent volatility of venture capital investments. While its negative beta (-0.255) suggests low correlation with broader markets, investors should note the illiquid nature of its portfolio and lack of dividend payouts. The firm's strategic focus on high-growth areas like AI and IoT security aligns with long-term tech trends, but its small market cap and negative operating cash flow (£1.22 million) indicate significant execution risk. Suitable only for investors with high risk tolerance seeking exposure to UK tech startups.

Competitive Analysis

Tern Plc occupies a specialized niche within the UK venture capital landscape, differentiating itself through its exclusive focus on software companies in IoT security, AI/ML, and data analytics. Unlike generalist VC firms, Tern's concentrated expertise in these domains allows for deeper technical due diligence and value-added support to portfolio companies. However, its small scale (£9.25M market cap) limits its ability to compete with larger VC firms in funding rounds. The firm's competitive edge lies in its early identification of niche B2B software opportunities, particularly in healthcare and industrial applications where its management has domain expertise. Challenges include portfolio concentration risk (UK-focused) and dependence on exit opportunities in still-evolving tech subsectors. Tern's negative operating cash flow suggests it may lack the reserves of larger competitors to support portfolio companies through extended growth periods.

Major Competitors

  • Minds + Machines Group Limited (MMX.L): Focuses on domain name registry services rather than software investments. While both are small-cap UK tech investors, MMX has more stable revenue streams but lacks Tern's focus on high-growth AI/ML sectors.
  • IP Group plc (IPGL.L): Larger (£400M+ market cap) UK VC firm with broader tech portfolio including life sciences. More diversified but less specialized than Tern in IoT/AI software. Stronger balance sheet allows for larger investments.
  • Oxford BioMedica plc (OXB.L): Specializes in gene and cell therapy rather than software. Highlights Tern's unique positioning in enterprise software investments versus biotech-focused UK VCs.
  • Frontier IP Group plc (FIPP.L): Similar small-cap (£20M market cap) UK VC but with focus on university spin-outs rather than commercial software companies. More academic pipeline versus Tern's market-driven approach.
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