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Stock Analysis & ValuationPerusahaan Perseroan (Persero) PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk (TLK)

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$21.12
Sector Valuation Confidence Level
High
Valuation methodValue, $Upside, %
Artificial intelligence (AI)n/a-100
Intrinsic value (DCF)9.69-54
Graham-Dodd Methodn/a
Graham Formula12.40-41

Strategic Investment Analysis

Company Overview

PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk (TLK) is Indonesia's largest integrated telecommunications provider, offering a comprehensive suite of services including mobile, fixed-line, broadband, and digital solutions. Headquartered in Bandung, the company operates across five key segments: Mobile, Consumer, Enterprise, Wholesale & International, and Others. With over 169 million cellular subscribers and 9.1 million fixed-line subscribers, TLK dominates Indonesia's telecom market, leveraging its extensive infrastructure to deliver mobile broadband, IPTV, IoT, cloud services, and digital financial solutions. As a state-owned enterprise, TLK benefits from government support and plays a critical role in Indonesia's digital transformation. The company's diversified revenue streams—spanning consumer, enterprise, and wholesale segments—position it as a leader in Southeast Asia's rapidly growing telecom sector. Its investments in 5G, data centers, and digital platforms align with Indonesia's push for digital inclusion and economic modernization.

Investment Summary

TLK presents a stable investment opportunity with its dominant market position, government backing, and exposure to Indonesia's underpenetrated digital economy. The company's low beta (0.17) suggests defensive characteristics, while its 5.5% dividend yield (based on $1.1/share) offers income appeal. However, risks include high capital expenditures for 5G rollout (-IDR 29.99T in FY2023), regulatory pressures in a state-controlled industry, and competition from digital-native players. With a P/E of ~7x (based on FY2023 EPS of IDR 23,873), TLK trades at a discount to regional peers, reflecting its slower growth profile but strong cash flow generation (IDR 61.6T operating cash flow). Investors should monitor its enterprise digital services growth and debt management (IDR 76.8T total debt).

Competitive Analysis

TLK's competitive advantage stems from its incumbent status as Indonesia's former telecom monopoly, granting it unparalleled infrastructure including 250,000+ km of fiber optic network and 33,000+ towers. Its integrated offerings—combining fixed, mobile, and enterprise services—create cross-selling opportunities competitors cannot match. The company's partnership with Indonesia's government (e.g., Palapa Ring broadband project) ensures preferential access to public-sector contracts. However, TLK faces challenges in digital innovation compared to agile competitors like GoTo's Gojek or Singtel-backed ShopeePay in fintech. Its enterprise segment benefits from end-to-end ICT solutions, but global players like AWS and Alibaba Cloud threaten its data center dominance. In mobile, TLK's 44% market share is pressured by XL Axiata's youth-focused strategies and Indosat Ooredoo Hutchison's merged scale. The company's competitive moat lies in its last-mile connectivity in Indonesia's archipelago geography, where infrastructure barriers deter new entrants.

Major Competitors

  • PT Indosat Ooredoo Hutchison Tbk (ISAT.JK): Merged entity of Indosat and Hutchison 3 Indonesia, now Indonesia's second-largest telecom with 100M+ subscribers. Strengths include aggressive 5G rollout and partnerships with Ooredoo/Hutchison for international roaming. Weaknesses include integration challenges post-merger and higher debt load. Competes directly with TLK in enterprise IoT solutions.
  • PT XL Axiata Tbk (EXCL.JK): Focuses on youth and digital natives with affordable data plans. Strengths include strong brand loyalty and innovative app-based services like Xtra Rewards. Weaknesses include limited fiber network compared to TLK, relying heavily on tower sharing. Lags in enterprise segment with only 15% revenue from corporate clients vs. TLK's 25%.
  • PT GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk (GOTO.JK): Digital-native competitor in fintech (GoPay) and cloud services. Strengths include super-app ecosystem with 100M+ users and dominance in e-payments. Weaknesses: No telecom infrastructure, relying on TLK's wholesale services. Represents disruptive threat in digital advertising and SME services where TLK is expanding.
  • Singtel (SINGF): Regional giant with indirect competition through stake in Telkomsel (TLK's subsidiary) and enterprise cloud services. Strengths include pan-Asian data centers and cybersecurity offerings. Weaknesses: Limited direct Indonesia presence post-Telkomsel stake sale. Competes with TLK for multinational corporate contracts in Indonesia.
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