Stock Analysis & Valuation TotalEnergies SE (TTE.PA)

• Previous Close: €61.15
• Sector Valuation Confidence Level: Low

Valuation method	Value, €	Upside, %
Artificial intelligence (AI)	50.40	-18
Intrinsic value (DCF)	34.10	-44
Graham-Dodd Method	24.50	-60
Graham Formula		n/a

Strategic Investment Analysis

Company Overview

TotalEnergies SE (TTE.PA) is a leading global integrated energy company headquartered in Courbevoie, France. Operating across the entire oil and gas value chain, TotalEnergies is strategically transitioning towards cleaner energy solutions while maintaining a strong presence in traditional hydrocarbons. The company's diversified business segments include Integrated Gas, Renewables & Power; Exploration & Production; Refining & Chemicals; and Marketing & Services. With operations spanning 130 countries, TotalEnergies manages approximately 16,000 service stations and 25,000 EV charge points worldwide. The company has made significant investments in renewable energy, including wind, solar, and biogas projects, while maintaining a robust portfolio of 12,062 Mboe in proved oil and gas reserves. TotalEnergies' strategic partnerships in plastic recycling and low-carbon technologies position it as a key player in the energy transition. Listed on Euronext Paris, the company serves as a bellwether for European energy stocks and plays a critical role in France's energy security and Europe's decarbonization efforts.

Investment Summary

TotalEnergies presents a balanced investment proposition combining stable hydrocarbon cash flows with growing renewable energy exposure. The company's integrated model provides resilience against commodity price volatility, while its EUR 2.37 dividend offers an attractive yield. With a beta of 0.70, TTE.PA demonstrates lower volatility than many energy peers. The EUR 30.8 billion operating cash flow supports continued investment in both traditional and new energy segments. However, risks include exposure to European energy policy shifts, potential stranded assets in long-term hydrocarbon projects, and execution risks in its energy transition strategy. The company's EUR 51.2 billion debt load warrants monitoring, though it remains manageable given strong cash generation. Investors seeking energy exposure with a transition component may find TotalEnergies' dual-strategy approach appealing.

Competitive Analysis

TotalEnergies occupies a unique position as a European major with aggressive energy transition ambitions while maintaining strong hydrocarbon operations. Unlike American supermajors that have been slower to embrace renewables, TotalEnergies has committed 20% of its investments to low-carbon electricity since 2020. The company's competitive advantages include: 1) Strategic positioning in LNG, where it ranks among the top global traders; 2) Early-mover advantage in European EV charging infrastructure; 3) Strong refining and petrochemical integration that adds value to upstream production; and 4) Government relationships in key African markets. However, it faces challenges competing with BP and Shell in renewables scale, while its upstream portfolio lacks the shale exposure that benefits U.S. peers. TotalEnergies' marketing network provides a competitive edge in Europe, but faces pressure from national champions like ENI in Italy and Repsol in Spain. The company's chemical recycling partnerships differentiate its downstream business, though scale remains limited versus traditional petrochemical players. Financially, TotalEnergies maintains better upstream margins than European peers but trails Exxon and Chevron in return metrics.

Major Competitors

• Shell plc (SHEL.L): Shell leads in LNG capacity and trading, with more aggressive renewable investments than TotalEnergies but weaker European retail presence. Its transition strategy is more diversified but less focused than TotalEnergies'. Shell's larger scale provides cost advantages but creates more complex transition challenges.
• BP plc (BP.L): BP has set more ambitious emission reduction targets than TotalEnergies but with less upstream integration. Its U.S. shale position is stronger, but European marketing network is smaller. BP's renewable investments are more concentrated in offshore wind, creating different risk/reward profile than TotalEnergies' solar focus.
• Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM): Exxon maintains superior upstream margins and chemical integration but lags in energy transition. Its Permian basin dominance provides low-cost production that TotalEnergies can't match, but European policy tailwinds favor TotalEnergies' transition strategy. Exxon's financial strength exceeds TotalEnergies', but with less renewable optionality.
• Chevron Corporation (CVX): Chevron shares TotalEnergies' balanced transition approach but with stronger U.S. upstream position and weaker downstream integration. Its hydrogen investments complement TotalEnergies' EV focus. Chevron's financial metrics are superior, but lacks TotalEnergies' European policy advantages and LNG trading scale.
• Eni SpA (ENI.MI): Eni competes directly with TotalEnergies in African upstream and European marketing. Its circular economy initiatives rival TotalEnergies' recycling projects. Eni has stronger Mediterranean gas positions but weaker global LNG and renewables portfolios. The companies have similar transition strategies but Eni is more oil-weighted.
• Repsol SA (REP.MC): Repsol has set more aggressive decarbonization targets than TotalEnergies but with smaller scale. Its Iberian retail dominance contrasts with TotalEnergies' pan-European network. Repsol's renewable investments are concentrated in Spain, lacking TotalEnergies' global diversification. Both companies share strong downstream integration.