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Stock Analysis & ValuationTennessee Valley Authority PARRS D 2028 (TVC)

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$24.36
Sector Valuation Confidence Level
High
Valuation methodValue, $Upside, %
Artificial intelligence (AI)15049.4561679
Intrinsic value (DCF)120.23394
Graham-Dodd Method43497.14178460
Graham Formula22126.6390732

Strategic Investment Analysis

Company Overview

The Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) is a federally owned corporation established in 1933, headquartered in Knoxville, Tennessee. As one of the largest public power providers in the U.S., TVA generates electricity through a diversified mix of coal, nuclear, hydroelectric, natural gas, and renewable energy sources. Serving millions of customers across seven southeastern states, TVA plays a critical role in regional energy stability, economic development, and environmental stewardship. Unlike traditional investor-owned utilities, TVA operates as a self-financing entity, reinvesting revenues into infrastructure and sustainability initiatives. Its unique federal charter allows it to provide low-cost, reliable power while supporting flood control, navigation, and land management. With a growing emphasis on decarbonization, TVA is strategically transitioning toward cleaner energy solutions while maintaining its financial strength and operational efficiency.

Investment Summary

TVA presents a stable investment opportunity due to its federally backed status, diversified energy portfolio, and essential service role in the Southeast U.S. Its low beta (0.012) indicates minimal correlation with broader market volatility, appealing to risk-averse investors. However, as a government entity, TVA does not offer equity shares—only power bonds (PARRS D 2028)—limiting capital appreciation potential. Revenue ($12.3B) and net income ($1.14B) reflect operational solidity, but zero operating cash flow reported raises questions about liquidity management. The agency’s $934M debt load is moderate relative to its market cap ($12.4B), and its dividend-like payments (equivalent to $0.53 per share) provide income appeal. Key risks include regulatory pressures on coal assets and competition from private renewables developers.

Competitive Analysis

TVA’s competitive advantage stems from its federal mandate, which grants it monopolistic control over power distribution in its service territory and tax-exempt financing privileges. Unlike private utilities, it faces no shareholder pressure, allowing long-term infrastructure investments. Its generation mix (40% carbon-free) outperforms many regional peers in sustainability, though it lags national leaders like NextEra in renewables penetration. TVA’s cost structure benefits from legacy hydro and nuclear assets, enabling below-average retail rates. However, its reliance on coal (15% of fleet) exposes it to transition risks, while its bureaucratic structure may slow innovation compared to agile private competitors. Geographically, TVA’s integrated transmission network provides resilience against weather disruptions—a key differentiator in storm-prone regions. Its economic development programs (e.g., industrial rate discounts) further entrench customer loyalty.

Major Competitors

  • NextEra Energy (NEE): NextEra dominates renewable energy (particularly wind/solar) with 58 GW capacity, contrasting TVA’s slower transition. Its competitive wholesale arm (NextEra Energy Resources) pressures TVA in commercial markets. However, NextEra lacks TVA’s federal backing and faces higher capital costs.
  • Duke Energy (DUK): Duke overlaps with TVA in the Carolinas, offering similar scale (51 GW capacity) but with investor-owned constraints. Duke’s aggressive coal retirement schedule (100% by 2035) outpaces TVA, though its higher rates reflect regulatory ROE demands TVA avoids.
  • Southern Company (SO): Southern’s nuclear expertise (Vogtle expansion) parallels TVA’s, but its gas-heavy strategy differs. Its Alabama territory borders TVA’s, creating rate competition. Southern’s dividend yield (4%) appeals to income investors—a option TVA’s bondholders lack.
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