Stock Analysis & Valuation National Beverage Corp. (FIZZ)

• Previous Close: $34.08
• Sector Valuation Confidence Level: Low

Valuation method	Value, $	Upside, %
Artificial intelligence (AI)	44.48	31
Intrinsic value (DCF)	19.74	-42
Graham-Dodd Method		n/a
Graham Formula	17.75	-48

Strategic Investment Analysis

Company Overview

National Beverage Corp. (NASDAQ: FIZZ) is a leading player in the non-alcoholic beverage industry, specializing in sparkling waters, juices, energy drinks, and carbonated soft drinks. The company’s flagship brand, LaCroix, has gained a cult following among health-conscious consumers for its naturally flavored sparkling water. Other key brands include Rip It (energy drinks), Clear Fruit (juices), and legacy soda brands Shasta and Faygo. National Beverage Corp. operates primarily in the U.S. and Canada, distributing through retail, convenience, and food-service channels. With a market cap exceeding $4.1 billion, the company has carved a niche in the competitive beverage sector by focusing on wellness trends and innovative flavors. Its vertically integrated production and marketing strategy allow for strong margins and brand loyalty. As consumer preferences shift toward low-calorie, natural beverages, FIZZ remains well-positioned to capitalize on this growing demand.

Investment Summary

National Beverage Corp. presents an intriguing investment case with its strong brand portfolio, particularly LaCroix, which dominates the flavored sparkling water segment. The company’s lean operations and lack of long-term debt (only $54.8M) provide financial flexibility. However, competition from giants like PepsiCo (Keurig Dr Pepper) and private-label brands poses pricing pressure. Revenue growth has been steady ($1.19B in FY2024), but net income ($176.7M) reflects margin compression due to rising input costs. The dividend yield (~3.25/share) adds appeal, but investors should monitor brand innovation and market share retention in the crowded wellness beverage space.

Competitive Analysis

National Beverage Corp. competes in the non-alcoholic beverage industry by leveraging its LaCroix brand’s strong consumer loyalty and niche positioning in the flavored sparkling water segment. Unlike mass-market soda producers, FIZZ focuses on health-conscious trends, avoiding artificial sweeteners—a key differentiator. However, its reliance on LaCroix (~80% of sales) creates concentration risk. Competitors like PepsiCo (Bubly) and Coca-Cola (AHA) have deeper distribution networks and marketing budgets, threatening FIZZ’s shelf space. The company’s smaller scale limits R&D spending compared to rivals, but its agility in flavor innovation (e.g., LaCroix Cúrate) helps maintain relevance. Private-label brands (e.g., Target’s Good & Gather) further erode pricing power. FIZZ’s competitive edge lies in its cult-like brand following and efficient production, but sustaining growth requires expanding beyond LaCroix and defending against private-label incursions.

Major Competitors

• PepsiCo, Inc. (PEP): PepsiCo’s Bubly competes directly with LaCroix, backed by vast distribution and marketing resources. Strengths include diversified snacks/beverages and global reach. Weaknesses: slower innovation in niche categories compared to FIZZ.
• The Coca-Cola Company (KO): Coca-Cola’s AHA sparkling water and Topo Chico challenge LaCroix. Strengths: unmatched brand equity and international presence. Weaknesses: less focus on indie-brand appeal compared to FIZZ.
• Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP): KDP’s Polar Seltzer and Canada Dry compete in sparkling water. Strengths: strong cold-drink distribution. Weaknesses: less differentiation in natural positioning vs. LaCroix.
• Private Label Brands (e.g., Good & Gather, Kirkland) (PRVT): Retailer-owned brands offer cheaper alternatives to LaCroix. Strengths: lower price points and shelf-space priority. Weaknesses: lack of brand loyalty compared to FIZZ’s cult following.