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IntroductionThe concept of valuationRevenue and revenue growthVariable costsFixed costsProduction assets

Intrinsic value of Advance Auto Parts, Inc. (AAP)

Previous Close$181.89
Intrinsic Value$102.27
Upside potential  -44%
Previous Close
$181.89
Intrinsic Value
$102.27
Potential        
-44%

VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue, mln $
Initial revenue growth rate (norm.), %
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, mln $
Production assets / Revenue, %
Working capital / Revenue, %
Interest rate on debt, %
Initial discount rate, %
Shares outstanding, mln
Adjusted equity ratio
Adjusted assets / Revenue
Cash & ST Investments
Total debt
Market cap, m$
11,279

Based on fiscal year data as of 2021-12-31 and quarterly data as of 2021-12-31.

  1. Annual
  2. Quarterly YoY
  3. Quarterly QoQ

Annual revenue growth rates, % (past and forecasted)

NOTE: The bar chart shows historic and forecasted yearly revenue growth rates. Its purpose is to help you in determining what initial revenue rate you want to base your stock valuation on. Please make sure that you are confident in the value you select - for most stocks it is by far the most important parameter in valuation.

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year2021(a)2022202320242025202620272028202920302031203220332034203520362037203820392040204120422043204420452046

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue growth rate, %8.8NaN
Revenue, $10998NaN
Variable operating expenses, $mNaN
Fixed operating expenses, $mNaN
Total operating expenses, $m10159NaN
Operating income, $m839NaN
EBITDA, $m1099NaN
Interest expense (income), $mNaN
Earnings before tax, $m806NaN
Tax expense, $m190NaN
Net income, $m616NaN

BALANCE SHEET

Cash and short-term investments, $m601NaN
Total assets, $m12194NaN
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m11593NaN
Average production assets, $m5682NaN
Working capital, $m1095NaN
Total debt, $m3837NaN
Total liabilities, $m9066NaN
Total equity, $m3128NaN
Debt-to-equity ratio1.227NaN
Adjusted equity ratio0.258NaN

CASH FLOW

Net income, $m616NaN
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m260NaN
Funds from operations, $mNaN
Change in working capital, $mNaN
Cash from operations, $m1112NaN
Maintenance CAPEX, $mNaN
New CAPEX, $mNaN
Total CAPEX, $m-287NaN
Free cash flow, $m1399NaN
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $mNaN
Retained Cash Flow, $mNaN
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $m1095
Cash available for distribution, $mNaN
Discount rate, %NaN
PV of cash for distribution, $mNaN
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %NaN
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