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Intrinsic value of Advance Auto Parts, Inc. (AAP)

Previous Close$151.30
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$151.30

VALUATION INPUT DATA (original, your and others' valuations)

ParameterOrig.Your
Date of valuation (DoV)  
Intrinsic value (IV) at DoV, $/sh  
IV at current val. algorithm, $/sh102.27 

The original valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2021-12-31 and quarterly data as of 2022-09-30.

Registered users can save their valuation input data

  1. Annual
  2. Quarterly YoY
  3. Quarterly QoQ

Annual revenue growth rates, % (past and forecasted)

NOTE: The bar chart shows historic and forecasted yearly revenue growth rates. Its purpose is to help you in determining what initial revenue rate you want to base your stock valuation on. Please make sure that you are confident in the value you select - for most stocks it is by far the most important parameter in valuation.

Company description

Advance Auto Parts, Inc. provides automotive replacement parts, accessories, batteries, and maintenance items for domestic and imported cars, vans, sport utility vehicles, and light and heavy duty trucks. The company offers battery accessories; belts and hoses; brakes and brake pads; chassis and climate control parts; clutches and drive shafts; engines and engine parts; exhaust systems and parts; hub assemblies; ignition components and wires; radiators and cooling parts; starters and alternators; and steering and alignment parts. It also offers air conditioning chemicals and accessories; air fresheners; antifreeze and washer fluids; electrical wires and fuses; electronics; floor mats, seat covers, and interior accessories; hand and specialty tools; lighting products; performance parts; sealants, adhesives and compounds; tire repair accessories; vent shades, mirrors and exterior accessories; washes, waxes and cleaning supplies; and wiper blades. In addition, the company offers air filters; fuel and oil additives; fuel filters; grease and lubricants; motor oils; oil filters, part cleaners and treatments; and transmission fluids for engine maintenance. Further, it offers battery and wiper installation; engine light scanning and checking; electrical system testing; video clinic; oil and battery recycling; and loaner tool program services. Additionally, the company sells its products through its website. It serves professional installers and do-it-yourself customers. The company operates stores under the Advance Auto Parts, Autopart International, and Carquest brands, as well as branches under the Worldpac name. As of April 23, 2022, it operated 4,687 stores and 311 branches in the United States, Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, and Canada; and served 1,318 independently owned Carquest branded stores in Mexico, Grand Cayman, the Bahamas, Turks and Caicos, and the British Virgin Islands. The company was founded in 1929 and is based in Raleigh, North Carolina.

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year2021(a)2022202320242025202620272028202920302031203220332034203520362037203820392040204120422043204420452046

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue growth rate, %8.8NaN
Revenue, $10998NaN
Variable operating expenses, $mNaN
Fixed operating expenses, $mNaN
Total operating expenses, $m10159NaN
Operating income, $m839NaN
EBITDA, $m1099NaN
Interest expense (income), $mNaN
Earnings before tax, $m806NaN
Tax expense, $m190NaN
Net income, $m616NaN

BALANCE SHEET

Cash and short-term investments, $m601NaN
Total assets, $m12194NaN
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m11593NaN
Average production assets, $m5682NaN
Working capital, $m1095NaN
Total debt, $m3837NaN
Total liabilities, $m9066NaN
Total equity, $m3128NaN
Debt-to-equity ratio1.227NaN
Adjusted equity ratio0.258NaN

CASH FLOW

Net income, $m616NaN
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m260NaN
Funds from operations, $mNaN
Change in working capital, $mNaN
Cash from operations, $m1112NaN
Maintenance CAPEX, $mNaN
New CAPEX, $mNaN
Total CAPEX, $m-287NaN
Free cash flow, $m1399NaN
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $mNaN
Retained Cash Flow, $mNaN
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $m1095
Cash available for distribution, $mNaN
Discount rate, %NaN
PV of cash for distribution, $mNaN
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %NaN
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