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Intrinsic value of Advance Auto Parts, Inc. (AAP)

[per Chepakovich valuation model]

➔ other valuations of AAP

[per Chepakovich valuation model]  ➔ See other valuations of AAP stock

Previous Close$210.29
Intrinsic Value$98.61
Upside potential  -53%
Previous Close
$210.29
Intrinsic Value
$98.61
Potential        
-53%

VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue, mln $
Initial revenue growth rate (norm.), %
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, mln $
Production assets / Revenue, %
Working capital / Revenue, %
Interest rate on debt, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Initial discount rate, %
Shares outstanding, mln
Adjusted equity ratio
Adjusted assets / Revenue
Based on fiscal year data as of 2020-12-31 and quarterly data as of 2020-12-31.
NOTE: The bar chart shows historic and forecasted yearly revenue growth rates. Its purpose is to help you in determining what initial revenue rate you want to base your stock valuation on. Please make sure that you are confident in the value you select - for most stocks it is by far the most important parameter in valuation.
  1. Annual
  2. Quarterly YoY
  3. Quarterly QoQ

Annual revenue growth rates, % (past and forecasted)

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year2020(a)2021202220232024202520262027202820292030203120322033203420352036203720382039204020412042204320442045

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue growth rate, %4.1NaN
Revenue, $10106NaN
Variable operating expenses, $mNaN
Fixed operating expenses, $mNaN
Total operating expenses, $m9356NaN
Operating income, $m750NaN
EBITDA, $m1000NaN
Interest expense (income), $mNaN
Earnings before tax, $m651NaN
Tax expense, $m158NaN
Net income, $m493NaN

BALANCE SHEET

Cash and short-term investments, $m835NaN
Total assets, $m11840NaN
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m11005NaN
Average production assets, $m3136NaN
Working capital, $m1526NaN
Total debt, $m1033NaN
Total liabilities, $m8280NaN
Total equity, $m3560NaN
Debt-to-equity ratio0.290NaN
Adjusted equity ratio0.248NaN

CASH FLOW

Net income, $m493NaN
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m250NaN
Funds from operations, $mNaN
Change in working capital, $mNaN
Cash from operations, $m970NaN
Maintenance CAPEX, $mNaN
New CAPEX, $mNaN
Total CAPEX, $m-267NaN
Free cash flow, $m1236NaN
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $mNaN
Retained Cash Flow, $mNaN
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $m1526
Cash available for distribution, $mNaN
Discount rate, %NaN
PV of cash for distribution, $mNaN
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %NaN
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