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Intrinsic value of Alaska Air Group, Inc. (ALK)

Previous Close$46.10
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$46.10

VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue, mln $
Initial revenue growth rate (norm.), %
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, mln $
Production assets / Revenue, %
Working capital / Revenue, %
Interest rate on debt, %
Initial discount rate, %
Shares outstanding, mln
Adjusted equity ratio
Adjusted assets / Revenue
Cash & ST Investments
Total debt
Market cap, m$
5,804

Based on fiscal year data as of 2021-12-31 and quarterly data as of 2022-03-31.

  1. Annual
  2. Quarterly YoY
  3. Quarterly QoQ

Annual revenue growth rates, % (past and forecasted)

NOTE: The bar chart shows historic and forecasted yearly revenue growth rates. Its purpose is to help you in determining what initial revenue rate you want to base your stock valuation on. Please make sure that you are confident in the value you select - for most stocks it is by far the most important parameter in valuation.

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year2021(a)2022202320242025202620272028202920302031203220332034203520362037203820392040204120422043204420452046

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue growth rate, %73.2NaN
Revenue, $6176NaN
Variable operating expenses, $mNaN
Fixed operating expenses, $mNaN
Total operating expenses, $m5491NaN
Operating income, $m685NaN
EBITDA, $m1079NaN
Interest expense (income), $mNaN
Earnings before tax, $m629NaN
Tax expense, $m151NaN
Net income, $m478NaN

BALANCE SHEET

Cash and short-term investments, $m3116NaN
Total assets, $m14964NaN
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m11848NaN
Average production assets, $m9648NaN
Working capital, $m-71NaN
Total debt, $m4086NaN
Total liabilities, $m11163NaN
Total equity, $m3801NaN
Debt-to-equity ratio1.075NaN
Adjusted equity ratio0.111NaN

CASH FLOW

Net income, $m478NaN
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m394NaN
Funds from operations, $mNaN
Change in working capital, $mNaN
Cash from operations, $m1030NaN
Maintenance CAPEX, $mNaN
New CAPEX, $mNaN
Total CAPEX, $m-290NaN
Free cash flow, $m1320NaN
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $mNaN
Retained Cash Flow, $mNaN
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $m-71
Cash available for distribution, $mNaN
Discount rate, %NaN
PV of cash for distribution, $mNaN
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %NaN
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