Intrinsic value of Alaska Air Group, Inc. (ALK)

[per Chepakovich valuation model]

other valuations of ALK

[per Chepakovich valuation model]  See other valuations of ALK stock

Previous Close$57.98
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$57.98

VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue, mln $
Initial revenue growth rate (norm.), %
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, mln $
Production assets / Revenue, %
Working capital / Revenue, %
Interest rate on debt, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Initial discount rate, %
Shares outstanding, mln
Adjusted equity ratio
Adjusted assets / Revenue
Based on fiscal year data as of 2020-12-31 and quarterly data as of 2021-03-31.
NOTE: The bar chart shows historic and forecasted yearly revenue growth rates. Its purpose is to help you in determining what initial revenue rate you want to base your stock valuation on. Please make sure that you are confident in the value you select - for most stocks it is by far the most important parameter in valuation.
  1. Annual
  2. Quarterly YoY
  3. Quarterly QoQ

Annual revenue growth rates, % (past and forecasted)

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year2020(a)2021202220232024202520262027202820292030203120322033203420352036203720382039204020412042204320442045

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue growth rate, %-59.4NaN
Revenue, $3566NaN
Variable operating expenses, $mNaN
Fixed operating expenses, $mNaN
Total operating expenses, $m5341NaN
Operating income, $m-1775NaN
EBITDA, $m-1355NaN
Interest expense (income), $mNaN
Earnings before tax, $m-1840NaN
Tax expense, $m-516NaN
Net income, $m-1324NaN

BALANCE SHEET

Cash and short-term investments, $m3346NaN
Total assets, $m14046NaN
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m10700NaN
Average production assets, $m8614NaN
Working capital, $m-287NaN
Total debt, $m3495NaN
Total liabilities, $m11058NaN
Total equity, $m2988NaN
Debt-to-equity ratio1.170NaN
Adjusted equity ratio0.073NaN

CASH FLOW

Net income, $m-1324NaN
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m420NaN
Funds from operations, $mNaN
Change in working capital, $mNaN
Cash from operations, $m-234NaN
Maintenance CAPEX, $mNaN
New CAPEX, $mNaN
Total CAPEX, $m73NaN
Free cash flow, $m-307NaN
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $mNaN
Retained Cash Flow, $mNaN
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $m-287
Cash available for distribution, $mNaN
Discount rate, %NaN
PV of cash for distribution, $mNaN
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %NaN