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Intrinsic Value of Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. (ALRM)

Previous Close$54.77
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$54.77

VALUATION INPUT DATA

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2024 and quarterly data as of .

Data is not available at this time.

Stock Valuation Context

Business Model And Market Position

Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. operates as a leading provider of cloud-based solutions for smart security and connected property management. The company serves residential and commercial markets, offering integrated platforms that combine video surveillance, access control, energy management, and IoT automation. Its subscription-based revenue model ensures recurring income, with a strong focus on SaaS and software-enabled hardware sales. Alarm.com differentiates itself through proprietary AI-driven analytics, seamless third-party integrations, and a robust partner network of security dealers and service providers. The company holds a dominant position in the North American smart security market, competing with legacy players by emphasizing scalability, user experience, and data-driven insights. Its technology stack appeals to both DIY consumers and professional installers, creating a diversified customer base. With increasing demand for remote monitoring and automation, Alarm.com is well-positioned to capitalize on the expanding smart home and proptech sectors.

Revenue Profitability And Efficiency

Alarm.com reported $939.8 million in revenue for FY 2024, demonstrating steady growth in its subscription and hardware segments. Net income stood at $124.1 million, with diluted EPS of $1.99, reflecting disciplined cost management. Operating cash flow of $206.4 million underscores the company’s ability to convert earnings into liquidity, while capital expenditures of -$10.1 million indicate efficient asset utilization and a capital-light model.

Earnings Power And Capital Efficiency

The company’s earnings power is supported by high-margin recurring revenue streams, with SaaS offerings driving stable cash flows. Alarm.com’s capital efficiency is evident in its ability to scale without significant incremental capex, leveraging its existing cloud infrastructure. The balance between growth investments and profitability suggests a sustainable trajectory for shareholder value creation.

Balance Sheet And Financial Health

Alarm.com maintains a strong liquidity position with $1.22 billion in cash and equivalents, though total debt of $1.06 billion warrants monitoring. The net cash position provides flexibility for strategic initiatives or M&A. The absence of dividends aligns with a growth-oriented capital allocation strategy, prioritizing reinvestment and debt management.

Growth Trends And Dividend Policy

Growth is fueled by increasing adoption of smart home technologies and expansion into commercial applications. Alarm.com does not currently pay dividends, opting instead to reinvest cash flows into R&D and market expansion. The company’s focus on innovation and partnerships positions it to sustain mid-to-high single-digit revenue growth in the near term.

Valuation And Market Expectations

The market values Alarm.com at a premium relative to traditional security firms, reflecting its SaaS-centric model and growth potential. Investors likely anticipate continued margin expansion and market share gains, though competitive pressures and macroeconomic factors could influence multiples. The absence of dividends may limit appeal to income-focused investors.

Strategic Advantages And Outlook

Alarm.com’s key advantages include its first-mover status in cloud-based security, a sticky customer base, and a scalable platform. Near-term challenges include integration risks with new technologies and potential margin compression from hardware sales. Long-term prospects remain favorable, driven by IoT adoption and smart city initiatives, though execution risks persist in a competitive landscape.

Sources

Company 10-K, investor presentations

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

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