Investor’s Craft

Intrinsic value of Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. (ALRM)

[per Chepakovich valuation model]

➔ other valuations of ALRM

[per Chepakovich valuation model]  ➔ See other valuations of ALRM stock

Previous Close$82.18
Intrinsic Value$15.41
Upside potential  -81%
Previous Close
$82.18
Intrinsic Value
$15.41
Potential        
-81%

VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue, mln $
Initial revenue growth rate (norm.), %
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, mln $
Production assets / Revenue, %
Working capital / Revenue, %
Interest rate on debt, %
Life of production assets, yrs
Initial discount rate, %
Shares outstanding, mln
Adjusted equity ratio
Adjusted assets / Revenue
Based on fiscal year data as of 2020-12-31 and quarterly data as of 2021-03-31.
NOTE: The bar chart shows historic and forecasted yearly revenue growth rates. Its purpose is to help you in determining what initial revenue rate you want to base your stock valuation on. Please make sure that you are confident in the value you select - for most stocks it is by far the most important parameter in valuation.
  1. Annual
  2. Quarterly YoY
  3. Quarterly QoQ

Annual revenue growth rates, % (past and forecasted)

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year2020(a)2021202220232024202520262027202820292030203120322033203420352036203720382039204020412042204320442045

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue growth rate, %23.0NaN
Revenue, $618NaN
Variable operating expenses, $mNaN
Fixed operating expenses, $mNaN
Total operating expenses, $m562NaN
Operating income, $m56NaN
EBITDA, $m94NaN
Interest expense (income), $mNaN
Earnings before tax, $m81NaN
Tax expense, $m4NaN
Net income, $m78NaN

BALANCE SHEET

Cash and short-term investments, $m253NaN
Total assets, $m732NaN
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m478NaN
Average production assets, $m254NaN
Working capital, $m307NaN
Total debt, $m110NaN
Total liabilities, $m264NaN
Total equity, $m468NaN
Debt-to-equity ratio0.235NaN
Adjusted equity ratio0.448NaN

CASH FLOW

Net income, $m78NaN
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m37NaN
Funds from operations, $mNaN
Change in working capital, $mNaN
Cash from operations, $m102NaN
Maintenance CAPEX, $mNaN
New CAPEX, $mNaN
Total CAPEX, $m-16NaN
Free cash flow, $m118NaN
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $mNaN
Retained Cash Flow, $mNaN
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $m307
Cash available for distribution, $mNaN
Discount rate, %NaN
PV of cash for distribution, $mNaN
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %NaN
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