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Intrinsic value of ConocoPhillips (COP)

Previous Close$105.02
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$105.02
Use floor (the cash flow based valuation has rendered a result, which is lower than an estimated minimum value derived from the company’s balance sheet analysis)

VALUATION INPUT DATA

Revenue, mln $
Initial revenue growth rate (norm.), %
Variable cost ratio, %
Fixed operating expenses, mln $
Production assets / Revenue, %
Working capital / Revenue, %
Interest rate on debt, %
Initial discount rate, %
Shares outstanding, mln
Adjusted equity ratio
Adjusted assets / Revenue
Cash & ST Investments
Total debt
Market cap, m$
136,736

Based on fiscal year data as of 2021-12-31 and quarterly data as of 2022-03-31.

  1. Annual
  2. Quarterly YoY
  3. Quarterly QoQ

Annual revenue growth rates, % (past and forecasted)

NOTE: The bar chart shows historic and forecasted yearly revenue growth rates. Its purpose is to help you in determining what initial revenue rate you want to base your stock valuation on. Please make sure that you are confident in the value you select - for most stocks it is by far the most important parameter in valuation.

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year2021(a)2022202320242025202620272028202920302031203220332034203520362037203820392040204120422043204420452046

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue growth rate, %145.4NaN
Revenue, $46056NaN
Variable operating expenses, $mNaN
Fixed operating expenses, $mNaN
Total operating expenses, $m32240NaN
Operating income, $m13816NaN
EBITDA, $m21068NaN
Interest expense (income), $mNaN
Earnings before tax, $m12712NaN
Tax expense, $m4633NaN
Net income, $m8079NaN

BALANCE SHEET

Cash and short-term investments, $m5626NaN
Total assets, $m90661NaN
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m85035NaN
Average production assets, $m53194NaN
Working capital, $m4029NaN
Total debt, $m20601NaN
Total liabilities, $m45255NaN
Total equity, $m45406NaN
Debt-to-equity ratio0.454NaN
Adjusted equity ratio0.484NaN

CASH FLOW

Net income, $m8079NaN
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m7252NaN
Funds from operations, $mNaN
Change in working capital, $mNaN
Cash from operations, $m16996NaN
Maintenance CAPEX, $mNaN
New CAPEX, $mNaN
Total CAPEX, $m-3671NaN
Free cash flow, $m20667NaN
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $mNaN
Retained Cash Flow, $mNaN
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $m4029
Cash available for distribution, $mNaN
Discount rate, %NaN
PV of cash for distribution, $mNaN
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %NaN
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