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Intrinsic Value of DaVita Inc. (DVA)

Previous Close$143.41
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$143.41

VALUATION INPUT DATA

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2024 and quarterly data as of .

Data is not available at this time.

Stock Valuation Context

Business Model And Market Position

DaVita Inc. operates as a leading provider of kidney care services in the U.S. and internationally, specializing in dialysis treatments for patients with chronic kidney failure and end-stage renal disease. The company generates revenue primarily through outpatient dialysis services, delivered via a network of owned and operated clinics, as well as ancillary services such as lab testing and pharmacy solutions. DaVita’s vertically integrated model allows it to capture value across the care continuum, reinforcing its competitive moat. The company holds a dominant market position in the U.S., competing with Fresenius Medical Care, and benefits from regulatory frameworks like Medicare reimbursement, which underpins stable cash flows. Its international expansion, particularly in emerging markets, provides growth diversification. DaVita’s scale, clinical expertise, and payer relationships solidify its leadership in a highly consolidated industry where regulatory barriers limit new entrants.

Revenue Profitability And Efficiency

DaVita reported $12.8 billion in revenue for FY 2024, with net income of $936 million, reflecting a 7.3% net margin. Diluted EPS stood at $10.73, demonstrating robust earnings power. Operating cash flow of $2.0 billion underscores efficient working capital management, while capital expenditures of $555 million indicate disciplined reinvestment in clinic maintenance and expansion.

Earnings Power And Capital Efficiency

The company’s earnings are resilient, supported by recurring dialysis demand and Medicare reimbursement stability. ROIC metrics are closely watched given the capital-intensive nature of dialysis clinics, but DaVita’s scale mitigates inefficiencies. Free cash flow generation remains strong, enabling debt servicing and selective growth investments.

Balance Sheet And Financial Health

DaVita’s balance sheet shows $795 million in cash against $12.1 billion in total debt, reflecting a leveraged but manageable position. Debt covenants and refinancing risks are mitigated by predictable cash flows. The absence of dividends suggests a focus on deleveraging or reinvestment.

Growth Trends And Dividend Policy

Organic growth is driven by aging populations and rising diabetes prevalence, though payer mix shifts pose risks. International expansion and value-based care initiatives offer incremental opportunities. DaVita does not pay dividends, prioritizing debt reduction and strategic investments over shareholder distributions.

Valuation And Market Expectations

The market prices DaVita at a premium to peers, reflecting its leadership position and cash flow durability. Valuation multiples suggest expectations of mid-single-digit revenue growth and margin stability, with regulatory risks priced in.

Strategic Advantages And Outlook

DaVita’s scale, clinical outcomes, and payer relationships are key differentiators. Regulatory headwinds and labor costs are monitored, but the company’s focus on operational efficiency and international growth supports a stable outlook. Long-term demand for dialysis services remains structurally favorable.

Sources

Company 10-K, investor presentations

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

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