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Intrinsic Value of Expedia Group, Inc. (EXPE)

Previous Close$183.64
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$183.64

VALUATION INPUT DATA

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2024 and quarterly data as of .

Data is not available at this time.

Stock Valuation Context

Business Model And Market Position

Expedia Group, Inc. operates as a leading global online travel platform, serving both leisure and business travelers through a diversified portfolio of brands, including Expedia, Vrbo, Hotels.com, and Orbitz. The company generates revenue primarily through merchant models (booking commissions), agency models (transaction fees), and advertising, leveraging its extensive network of travel suppliers and partners. Its platform aggregates flights, accommodations, car rentals, and experiences, offering competitive pricing and personalized recommendations. Expedia holds a strong position in the highly competitive online travel agency (OTA) sector, competing with Booking Holdings and Airbnb. Its multi-brand strategy allows it to cater to distinct customer segments, from budget-conscious travelers to luxury seekers. The company’s technological investments in AI and machine learning enhance user experience and operational efficiency, reinforcing its market relevance. Despite macroeconomic headwinds affecting travel demand, Expedia benefits from global travel recovery trends and its scalable platform.

Revenue Profitability And Efficiency

Expedia reported FY 2024 revenue of $13.69 billion, with net income of $1.23 billion, reflecting a diluted EPS of $8.95. Operating cash flow stood at $3.09 billion, supported by robust booking activity and cost discipline. Capital expenditures totaled $756 million, indicating continued investment in technology and platform enhancements. The company’s ability to convert revenue into cash flow underscores its operational efficiency in a capital-intensive industry.

Earnings Power And Capital Efficiency

The company’s earnings power is evident in its ability to maintain profitability despite cyclical travel industry pressures. Expedia’s capital efficiency is demonstrated by its strong operating cash flow relative to capital expenditures, enabling reinvestment in growth initiatives while maintaining financial flexibility. Its scalable platform allows for margin expansion as travel demand recovers, though competition and supplier dynamics remain key variables.

Balance Sheet And Financial Health

Expedia’s balance sheet shows $5.57 billion in cash and equivalents against $6.53 billion in total debt, reflecting a manageable leverage position. The company’s liquidity is sufficient to meet obligations and fund strategic initiatives. Debt levels are structured to align with cash flow generation, ensuring financial stability even during industry downturns.

Growth Trends And Dividend Policy

Expedia has focused on growth through technological innovation and brand diversification, with Vrbo and other segments driving incremental revenue. The company does not currently pay dividends, opting instead to reinvest cash flow into platform development and acquisitions. Travel demand recovery post-pandemic and international expansion present long-term growth opportunities, though macroeconomic volatility remains a risk.

Valuation And Market Expectations

The market values Expedia based on its ability to capitalize on global travel recovery and market share gains. Its valuation reflects expectations of sustained revenue growth and margin improvement, though competitive pressures and economic sensitivity weigh on multiples. Investors monitor booking trends and technological advancements as key value drivers.

Strategic Advantages And Outlook

Expedia’s strategic advantages include its multi-brand portfolio, technological capabilities, and supplier relationships. The outlook hinges on travel demand resilience and execution in personalization and mobile platforms. While challenges like competition and economic uncertainty persist, the company’s scale and innovation position it well for long-term success.

Sources

Expedia Group 10-K, investor presentations

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

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