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Intrinsic value of Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC)

Previous Close$120.23
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$120.23
Use floor (the cash flow based valuation has rendered a result, which is lower than an estimated minimum value derived from the company’s balance sheet analysis)

VALUATION INPUT DATA (original, your and others' valuations)

ParameterOrig.Your
Date of valuation (DoV)  
Intrinsic value (IV) at DoV, $/sh  
IV at current val. algorithm, $/sh48.97 

The original valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2021-12-31 and quarterly data as of 2022-09-30.

Registered users can save their valuation input data

  1. Annual
  2. Quarterly YoY
  3. Quarterly QoQ

Annual revenue growth rates, % (past and forecasted)

NOTE: The bar chart shows historic and forecasted yearly revenue growth rates. Its purpose is to help you in determining what initial revenue rate you want to base your stock valuation on. Please make sure that you are confident in the value you select - for most stocks it is by far the most important parameter in valuation.

Company description

Marathon Petroleum Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated downstream energy company primarily in the United States. It operates in two segments, Refining & Marketing, and Midstream. The Refining & Marketing segment refines crude oil and other feedstocks at its refineries in the Gulf Coast, Mid-Continent, and West Coast regions of the United States; and purchases refined products and ethanol for resale. Its refined products include transportation fuels, such as reformulated gasolines and blend-grade gasolines; heavy fuel oil; and asphalt. This segment also manufactures aromatics, propane, propylene, and sulfur. It sells refined products to wholesale marketing customers in the United States and internationally, buyers on the spot market, and independent entrepreneurs who operate primarily Marathon branded outlets, as well as through long-term fuel supply contracts to direct dealer locations primarily under the ARCO brand. The Midstream segment transports, stores, distributes, and markets crude oil and refined products through refining logistics assets, pipelines, terminals, towboats, and barges; gathers, processes, and transports natural gas; and gathers, transports, fractionates, stores, and markets natural gas liquids. As of December 31, 2021, the company operated 7,159 brand jobber outlets in 37 states, the District of Columbia, and Mexico through independent entrepreneurs. Marathon Petroleum Corporation was founded in 1887 and is headquartered in Findlay, Ohio.

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year2021(a)2022202320242025202620272028202920302031203220332034203520362037203820392040204120422043204420452046

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue growth rate, %72.0NaN
Revenue, $119983NaN
Variable operating expenses, $mNaN
Fixed operating expenses, $mNaN
Total operating expenses, $m115683NaN
Operating income, $m4300NaN
EBITDA, $m7608NaN
Interest expense (income), $mNaN
Earnings before tax, $m10002NaN
Tax expense, $m264NaN
Net income, $m9738NaN

BALANCE SHEET

Cash and short-term investments, $m10839NaN
Total assets, $m85373NaN
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m74534NaN
Average production assets, $m50188NaN
Working capital, $m12598NaN
Total debt, $m26904NaN
Total liabilities, $m59167NaN
Total equity, $m26206NaN
Debt-to-equity ratio1.027NaN
Adjusted equity ratio0.220NaN

CASH FLOW

Net income, $m9738NaN
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m3308NaN
Funds from operations, $mNaN
Change in working capital, $mNaN
Cash from operations, $m4360NaN
Maintenance CAPEX, $mNaN
New CAPEX, $mNaN
Total CAPEX, $m-1311NaN
Free cash flow, $m5671NaN
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $mNaN
Retained Cash Flow, $mNaN
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $m12598
Cash available for distribution, $mNaN
Discount rate, %NaN
PV of cash for distribution, $mNaN
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %NaN
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