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IntroductionThe concept of valuationRevenue and revenue growthVariable costsFixed costsProduction assets

Intrinsic value of PACCAR Inc. (PCAR)

Previous Close$105.95
Intrinsic Value$40.00
Upside potential  -62%
Previous Close
$105.95
Intrinsic Value
$40.00*
Potential        
-62%
Use floor (the cash flow based valuation has rendered a result, which is lower than an estimated minimum value derived from the company’s balance sheet analysis)

VALUATION INPUT DATA (original, your and others' valuations)

ParameterOrig.Your
Date of valuation (DoV)  
Intrinsic value (IV) at DoV, $/sh  
IV at current val. algorithm, $/sh39.72 40

The original valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2021-12-31 and quarterly data as of 2022-09-30.

Registered users can save their valuation input data

  1. Annual
  2. Quarterly YoY
  3. Quarterly QoQ

Annual revenue growth rates, % (past and forecasted)

NOTE: The bar chart shows historic and forecasted yearly revenue growth rates. Its purpose is to help you in determining what initial revenue rate you want to base your stock valuation on. Please make sure that you are confident in the value you select - for most stocks it is by far the most important parameter in valuation.

Company description

PACCAR Inc designs, manufactures, and distributes light, medium, and heavy-duty commercial trucks in the United States, Europe, Mexico, South America, Australia, and internationally. It operates through three segments: Truck, Parts, and Financial Services. The Truck segment designs, manufactures, and distributes trucks for the over-the-road and off-highway hauling of commercial and consumer goods. It sells its trucks through a network of independent dealers under the Kenworth, Peterbilt, and DAF nameplates. The Parts segment distributes aftermarket parts for trucks and related commercial vehicles. The Financial Services segment conducts full-service leasing operations under the PacLease trade name, as well as provides finance and leasing products and services to customers and dealers. This segment also offers equipment financing and administrative support services for its franchisees; retail loan and leasing services for small, medium, and large commercial trucking companies, as well as independent owners/operators and other businesses; and truck inventory financing services to independent dealers. In addition, this segment offers loans and leases directly to customers for the acquisition of trucks and related equipment. The company also manufactures and markets industrial winches under the Braden, Carco, and Gearmatic nameplates. PACCAR Inc was founded in 1905 and is headquartered in Bellevue, Washington.

show cash flow forecast

FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

Fiscal year2021(a)2022202320242025202620272028202920302031203220332034203520362037203820392040204120422043204420452046

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue growth rate, %25.6NaN
Revenue, $23522NaN
Variable operating expenses, $mNaN
Fixed operating expenses, $mNaN
Total operating expenses, $m21080NaN
Operating income, $m2442NaN
EBITDA, $m3310NaN
Interest expense (income), $mNaN
Earnings before tax, $m2379NaN
Tax expense, $m527NaN
Net income, $m1852NaN

BALANCE SHEET

Cash and short-term investments, $m4988NaN
Total assets, $m29302NaN
Adjusted assets (=assets-cash), $m24314NaN
Average production assets, $m6797NaN
Working capital, $m-1287NaN
Total debt, $m10469NaN
Total liabilities, $m17865NaN
Total equity, $m11437NaN
Debt-to-equity ratio0.915NaN
Adjusted equity ratio0.484NaN

CASH FLOW

Net income, $m1852NaN
Depreciation, amort., depletion, $m868NaN
Funds from operations, $mNaN
Change in working capital, $mNaN
Cash from operations, $m2187NaN
Maintenance CAPEX, $mNaN
New CAPEX, $mNaN
Total CAPEX, $m-716NaN
Free cash flow, $m2904NaN
Issuance/(repurchase) of shares, $mNaN
Retained Cash Flow, $mNaN
Pot'l extraordinary dividend, $m-1287
Cash available for distribution, $mNaN
Discount rate, %NaN
PV of cash for distribution, $mNaN
Current shareholders' claim on cash, %NaN
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