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Intrinsic Value of PACCAR Inc (PCAR)

Previous Close$97.66
Intrinsic Value
Upside potential
Previous Close
$97.66

VALUATION INPUT DATA

This valuation is based on fiscal year data as of 2024 and quarterly data as of .

Data is not available at this time.

Stock Valuation Context

Business Model And Market Position

PACCAR Inc is a global leader in the design, manufacture, and distribution of premium commercial trucks, including Kenworth, Peterbilt, and DAF nameplates, as well as related aftermarket parts and financial services. The company operates in a highly cyclical industry, serving freight transportation, construction, and logistics sectors. PACCAR differentiates itself through advanced engineering, fuel-efficient technologies, and a strong dealer network, positioning it as a preferred supplier for fleet operators seeking reliability and total cost of ownership advantages. Its diversified revenue streams—spanning vehicle sales, parts, and financing—provide resilience against market downturns. The company maintains a robust competitive position in North America and Europe, supported by consistent investment in R&D and a reputation for product quality. PACCAR’s market share remains stable, benefiting from long-term customer relationships and a focus on innovation in autonomous and electric vehicle segments.

Revenue Profitability And Efficiency

PACCAR reported revenue of $33.7 billion for FY 2024, with net income of $4.2 billion, reflecting a strong margin profile. Diluted EPS stood at $7.90, supported by disciplined cost management and pricing power. Operating cash flow of $4.6 billion underscores efficient working capital management, while capital expenditures of $1.7 billion indicate sustained investment in production capacity and technology.

Earnings Power And Capital Efficiency

The company demonstrates robust earnings power, with net income margins exceeding 12%. Capital efficiency is evident in its ability to generate substantial operating cash flow relative to invested capital. PACCAR’s financial services segment further enhances returns by leveraging its captive financing arm to support truck sales and customer loyalty.

Balance Sheet And Financial Health

PACCAR maintains a solid balance sheet, with $7.1 billion in cash and equivalents against $15.9 billion in total debt. The debt level is manageable given strong cash flow generation and liquidity. Shareholders’ equity remains healthy, reflecting prudent financial stewardship and consistent profitability.

Growth Trends And Dividend Policy

Growth trends are tied to cyclical demand for commercial vehicles, with long-term drivers including fleet replacement cycles and regulatory shifts toward cleaner technologies. PACCAR’s dividend policy is shareholder-friendly, with a $4.36 per share payout in FY 2024, supported by stable cash flows and a commitment to returning capital.

Valuation And Market Expectations

The market values PACCAR at a premium relative to peers, reflecting its strong brand equity, margin resilience, and technological leadership. Investors appear to price in steady demand recovery and potential upside from electric and autonomous truck initiatives, though cyclical risks remain a consideration.

Strategic Advantages And Outlook

PACCAR’s strategic advantages include its premium brand portfolio, global scale, and innovation in alternative powertrains. The outlook is cautiously optimistic, with near-term performance hinging on freight demand and supply chain stability. Long-term opportunities in electrification and automation position the company for sustained industry leadership.

Sources

Company filings (10-K), investor presentations

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FINANCIAL STATEMENTS FORECAST and PRESENT VALUE CALCULATION

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